Roster Math

Teams › Am. East · Compare Maine with another team

Maine

Maine returns 85% of last season's minutes and rates #356 on offense and #175 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -15.6 to -1.1.

-8.2
Rating · #318 of 365
-8.4
Offense · #356
+0.2
Defense · #175
-15.6 to -1.1
80% range
0%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
13-18
Projected record · 7 to 18 wins
7-9
Projected in Am. East · 4 to 11 wins

Why we have them here

Maine's preseason projection of -8.2 (No. 318 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -5.4, about the -5.1 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 336 at the end of 2025-26) adds -2.6, about its neighbours' -2.0; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -0.5. It returns 85% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (72%). The projection leans most on TJ Biel (+0.6), Ace Flagg (+0.6) and Oliver Faubert (-0.1); the newcomer who matters most is Oliver Faubert, a transfer from Saint Mary's, at -0.1. Its 80% range, -15.6 to -1.1, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 67% · Transfer 10% · Other newcomer 18%

TJ Biel+0.6
Ace Flagg+0.6
Oliver Faubert-0.1
Emmitt Byther-0.7
Darius Lopes-0.8
Ayden Evans-0.8
Joshua Ojuri-0.8
John Shea-0.8
Isaac Bonilla-1.0
Bashir N'Galang-1.3
Yanis Bamba-1.5
Caleb Crawford-1.6
Amare Allen-1.9
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
1085Ace FlaggF6-71ReturningMaine24+1.0+0.6
1116TJ BielF6-93ReturningMaine29+0.9+0.6
1925Oliver FaubertF6-81TransferSaint Mary's9-0.4-0.1
4368Darius LopesF6-40Other newcomer12-2.5-0.8
4474Joshua OjuriF6-60Other newcomer12-2.7-0.8
4474John SheaF6-63Other newcomer12-2.7-0.8
4511Emmitt BytherF6-61ReturningMaine8-3.4-0.7
4582Ayden EvansF6-102TransferOhio10-3.1-0.8
4765Isaac BonillaG6-13ReturningMaine12-3.3-1.0
4983Caleb CrawfordG6-02ReturningMaine21-3.0-1.6
4994Bashir N'GalangG6-31ReturningMaine14-3.7-1.3
5093Yanis BambaF6-62ReturningMaine13-4.5-1.5
5200Amare AllenF6-71ReturningMaine14-5.6-1.9

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02atProvidence #49-20.95%
Thu Nov 05atSacred Heart #272-7.826%
Sun Nov 08vsManhattan #309+4.464%
Tue Nov 10atRhode Island #148-12.216%
Sat Nov 14vsDrexel #254+2.157%
Thu Nov 19atQuinnipiac #200-9.522%
Sat Nov 21atMassachusetts #178-11.019%
Fri Nov 27NLe Moyne #217-4.037%
Sat Nov 28atLafayette #342-3.140%
Sun Nov 29NNiagara #329+0.351%
Sat Dec 05vsStony Brook #283+3.361%
Tue Dec 08atDePaul #97-14.612%
Sat Dec 12vsBoston University #230+1.555%
Mon Dec 21vsMerrimack #176-0.249%
Tue Dec 29atBrown #184-9.821%
Sat Jan 02atBryant #327conf-2.741%
Thu Jan 07vsNJIT #347conf+4.163%
Sat Jan 09vsUMBC #180conf-3.040%
Mon Jan 18vsUMass Lowell #287conf+0.552%
Thu Jan 21atBinghamton #330conf-1.844%
Sat Jan 23atUAlbany #293conf-3.339%
Thu Jan 28vsVermont #202conf-2.243%
Sat Jan 30vsNew Hampshire #335conf+2.859%
Thu Feb 04atUMass Lowell #287conf-4.536%
Thu Feb 11atUMBC #180conf-6.031%
Sat Feb 13atNJIT #347conf+0.251%
Wed Feb 17vsBryant #327conf+2.257%
Sat Feb 20atNew Hampshire #335conf-1.645%
Thu Feb 25vsBinghamton #330conf+2.458%
Sat Feb 27vsUAlbany #293conf+0.853%
Tue Mar 02atVermont #202conf-6.629%

Projected margin is from Maine's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.