Roster Math

Teams › A-10 · Compare Rhode Island with another team

Rhode Island

Rhode Island returns 47% of last season's minutes and rates #170 on offense and #138 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -6.3 to +8.6.

+1.0
Rating · #148 of 365
+0.0
Offense · #170
+1.0
Defense · #138
-6.3 to +8.6
80% range
<1%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
16-14
Projected record · 11 to 22 wins
8-10
Projected in A-10 · 5 to 12 wins

Why we have them here

Rhode Island's preseason projection of +1.0 (No. 148 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +0.6, about the +0.8 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 148 at the end of 2025-26) adds +0.1, about its neighbours' +0.1; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +0.0. It returns 47% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (49%). The projection leans most on Jahmere Tripp (+2.0), Dylan Williamson (+1.9) and Matas Deniusas (+1.7); the newcomer who matters most is Dylan Williamson, a transfer from Towson, at +1.9. Its 80% range, -6.3 to +8.6, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 34% · Transfer 35% · Freshman 6% · Other newcomer 16%

Jahmere Tripp+2.0
Dylan Williamson+1.9
Matas Deniusas+1.7
Jonah Hinton+0.5
Jaen Chatman-0.1
Jaymien Aponte-0.3
Barrett Loer-0.3
Miftah Ibiyemi-0.3
Javon Perry-0.3
Moek Icke-0.4
Jalen Harper-1.1
Jason Fontenet II-1.3
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
469Jahmere TrippF6-63ReturningRhode Island23+3.5+2.0
544Dylan WilliamsonG6-13TransferTowson29+2.7+1.9
602Matas DeniusasF6-91TransferUT Martin25+2.7+1.7
1208Jonah HintonG6-32ReturningRhode Island27+0.7+0.5
1990Jaen ChatmanG6-10FreshmanHigh school13-0.4-0.1
2780Jaymien AponteF6-32Other newcomer8-1.4-0.3
3093Miftah IbiyemiG6-33Other newcomer8-1.6-0.3
3098Barrett LoerG6-61ReturningRhode Island8-1.7-0.3
3156Javon PerryF6-80Other newcomer8-1.7-0.3
3606Moek IckeF7-10Other newcomer9-2.0-0.4
4889Jason Fontenet IIG6-63TransferUC Santa Barbara17-3.1-1.3
4946Jalen HarperG6-31ReturningRhode Island11-3.9-1.1

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Tue Nov 03vsHoly Cross #352+14.989%
Sat Nov 07NMonmouth #216+2.257%
Tue Nov 10vsMaine #318+12.284%
Thu Nov 12vsMaryland Eastern Shore #356+15.390%
Sun Nov 15vsPrinceton #164+6.771%
Fri Nov 20NLiberty #150+0.050%
Sun Nov 22NUAB #158+0.351%
Tue Dec 01vsBrown #184+7.673%
Sat Dec 05vsProvidence #49-1.346%
Sat Dec 12atTulane #250-2.542%
Sat Dec 19atNortheastern #296+0.451%
Tue Dec 22vsBuffalo #209+8.375%
Wed Dec 30atSaint Joseph's #129conf-3.339%
Sat Jan 02vsGeorge Mason #107conf+1.254%
Wed Jan 06atDuquesne #156conf-2.343%
Sat Jan 09vsLa Salle #218conf+5.567%
Wed Jan 13vsGeorge Washington #119conf+2.057%
Sat Jan 16atRichmond #136conf-3.140%
Sat Jan 23vsDuquesne #156conf+3.762%
Tue Jan 26atSaint Louis #56conf-10.221%
Sat Jan 30atLa Salle #218conf-0.748%
Wed Feb 03vsFordham #125conf+2.157%
Sun Feb 07vsDavidson #132conf+2.558%
Wed Feb 10atVCU #44conf-11.218%
Sat Feb 13atLoyola Chicago #166conf-2.044%
Wed Feb 17vsRichmond #136conf+2.859%
Sat Feb 20atFordham #125conf-2.841%
Sat Feb 27vsDayton #74conf-1.944%
Wed Mar 03atGeorge Mason #107conf-5.134%
Sat Mar 06vsSt. Bonaventure #126conf+2.257%

Projected margin is from Rhode Island's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.