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VCU
VCU returns 59% of last season's minutes and rates #49 on offense and #30 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +5.8 to +20.3.
Why we have them here
VCU's preseason projection of +13.1 (No. 44 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +7.8, about the +8.0 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 42 at the end of 2025-26) adds +2.5, about its neighbours' +2.2; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +1.9. A stretch at the top of the scale adds +0.5, because a straight-line calibration shrinks elite teams. It returns 59% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (32%). The projection leans most on Nyk Lewis (+3.6), Brandon Jennings (+2.8) and Torey Alston (+2.6); the newcomer who matters most is Torey Alston, a transfer from Middle Tennessee, at +2.6. Its 80% range, +5.8 to +20.3, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 58% · Transfer 32% · Freshman 8% · Other newcomer 3%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 129 | Nyk Lewis | G | 6-1 | 1 | Returning | VCU | 21 | +6.7 | +3.6 |
| 244 | Brandon Jennings | G | 6-4 | 2 | Returning | VCU | 23 | +5.0 | +2.8 |
| 306 | Torey Alston | F | 6-9 | 2 | Transfer | Middle Tennessee | 23 | +4.5 | +2.6 |
| 394 | Lazar Djokovic | F | 6-11 | 3 | Returning | VCU | 24 | +3.9 | +2.3 |
| 688 | Ahmad Nowell | G | 6-0 | 2 | Returning | VCU | 11 | +3.6 | +1.0 |
| 703 | Blake Harper | G | 6-7 | 2 | Transfer | Creighton | 15 | +2.9 | +1.1 |
| 810 | Michael Belle | F | 6-8 | 3 | Returning | VCU | 18 | +2.2 | +1.0 |
| 968 | Jordan Tillery | G | 6-5 | 1 | Returning | VCU | 8 | +2.6 | +0.5 |
| 1099 | Tyrell Ward | G | 6-6 | 4 | Returning | VCU | 11 | +1.4 | +0.4 |
| 1331 | Sammy Jackson | F | 6-7 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 9 | +0.8 | +0.2 |
| 1447 | Nyle Ralph-Beyer | G | 6-4 | 2 | Transfer | Sacred Heart | 21 | +0.3 | +0.1 |
| 1853 | Collin Ross | F | 6-9 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 7 | -0.4 | -0.1 |
| 1971 | Obinnaya Okafor | F | 6-9 | 2 | Other newcomer | 3 | -0.9 | -0.1 | |
| 1971 | Stefan Plisnic | F | 6-9 | 0 | Other newcomer | 3 | -0.9 | -0.1 | |
| 4058 | Joshua Wyche | G | 6-7 | 3 | Transfer | Lafayette | 4 | -3.7 | -0.4 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | vs |  Little Rock #320 | +21.0 | 96% | |
| Sat Nov 07 | at |  Memphis #100 | -0.8 | 47% | |
| Wed Nov 11 | vs |  NJIT #347 | +23.3 | 97% | |
| Thu Nov 19 | at |  Santa Clara #63 | -3.9 | 38% | |
| Mon Nov 23 | N |  Providence #49 | +0.6 | 52% | |
| Thu Dec 03 | vs |  Coppin State #364 | +27.7 | 99% | |
| Mon Dec 07 | vs |  North Carolina Central #353 | +23.8 | 97% | |
| Sat Dec 12 | N |  Florida Atlantic #122 | +7.3 | 72% | |
| Tue Dec 15 | vs |  Central Connecticut #316 | +20.3 | 95% | |
| Sat Dec 19 | N |  Mississippi State #78 | +3.6 | 61% | |
| Tue Dec 22 | vs |  Morgan State #348 | +24.1 | 97% | |
| Wed Dec 30 | at |  St. Bonaventure #126 | conf | +5.0 | 66% |
| Sat Jan 02 | vs |  Duquesne #156 | conf | +12.0 | 83% |
| Wed Jan 06 | vs |  Davidson #132 | conf | +10.2 | 80% |
| Sat Jan 09 | at |  George Washington #119 | conf | +4.0 | 63% |
| Wed Jan 13 | vs |  La Salle #218 | conf | +13.4 | 86% |
| Mon Jan 18 | at |  Saint Joseph's #129 | conf | +5.0 | 66% |
| Fri Jan 22 | at |  Dayton #74 | conf | -0.1 | 50% |
| Wed Jan 27 | vs |  George Mason #107 | conf | +8.9 | 77% |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs |  Richmond #136 | conf | +10.9 | 81% |
| Fri Feb 05 | at |  Saint Louis #56 | conf | -1.8 | 44% |
| Wed Feb 10 | vs |  Rhode Island #148 | conf | +11.2 | 82% |
| Sat Feb 13 | at | Richmond #136 | conf | +5.2 | 66% |
| Tue Feb 16 | at |  Fordham #125 | conf | +5.2 | 66% |
| Fri Feb 19 | vs | Saint Louis #56 | conf | +4.6 | 64% |
| Tue Feb 23 | vs | St. Bonaventure #126 | conf | +10.2 | 80% |
| Fri Feb 26 | at | George Mason #107 | conf | +2.7 | 59% |
| Tue Mar 02 | at |  Loyola Chicago #166 | conf | +6.2 | 69% |
| Fri Mar 05 | vs | Dayton #74 | conf | +6.0 | 69% |
Projected margin is from VCU's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.