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George Mason
George Mason returns 32% of last season's minutes and rates #98 on offense and #152 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -3.1 to +11.3.
Why we have them here
George Mason's preseason projection of +4.1 (No. 107 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +1.8, about the +2.2 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 103 at the end of 2025-26) adds +0.9, about its neighbours' +0.5; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +1.1. It returns 32% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (57%). The projection leans most on Baraka Okojie (+2.3), Emmanuel Kanga (+2.1) and Makhai Valentine (+1.3); the newcomer who matters most is Baraka Okojie, a transfer from Mercer, at +2.3. Its 80% range, -3.1 to +11.3, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 28% · Transfer 62% · Freshman 6% · Other newcomer 4%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 285 | Emmanuel Kanga | F | 6-8 | 1 | Returning | George Mason | 14 | +5.8 | +2.1 |
| 419 | Baraka Okojie | G | 6-3 | 3 | Transfer | Mercer | 26 | +3.6 | +2.3 |
| 750 | Makhai Valentine | G | 6-3 | 2 | Transfer | Northern Illinois | 25 | +2.1 | +1.3 |
| 995 | Michael Marcus Jr. | F | 6-9 | 2 | Transfer | App State | 20 | +1.4 | +0.7 |
| 1041 | Emmett Adair | F | 6-9 | 1 | Transfer | Loyola Maryland | 18 | +1.3 | +0.6 |
| 1616 | Fatt Hill | G | 6-5 | 2 | Returning | George Mason | 17 | +0.1 | +0.0 |
| 1865 | James Nnaji | C | 1 | Transfer | Baylor | 6 | -0.4 | -0.1 | |
| 2020 | Shane Pendergrass | F | 6-8 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 7 | -0.6 | -0.1 |
| 2047 | Isaiah Skinn | F | 6-0 | 0 | Other newcomer | 3 | -1.0 | -0.1 | |
| 2228 | Stas Sivka | F | 6-10 | 2 | Returning | George Mason | 9 | -0.8 | -0.2 |
| 2355 | T.J. Prosise | G | 6-3 | 2 | Returning | George Mason | 3 | -1.5 | -0.1 |
| 2378 | Ben Woodward | G | 6-4 | 2 | Returning | George Mason | 3 | -1.5 | -0.1 |
| 2471 | Ryan-Preston Mendy | F | 6-9 | 0 | Other newcomer | 4 | -1.5 | -0.2 | |
| 2828 | Efeosa Oliogu-Elabor | F | 6-6 | 1 | Transfer | Butler | 11 | -1.2 | -0.3 |
| 2873 | Peyton Miller | G | 6-3 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 6 | -1.7 | -0.2 |
| 4354 | Lilian Marville | G | 6-1 | 1 | Transfer | UNC Greensboro | 17 | -2.1 | -0.9 |
| 4978 | Malik Presley | G | 6-6 | 3 | Returning | George Mason | 10 | -4.3 | -1.1 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | vs |  UMBC #180 | +9.1 | 77% | |
| Fri Nov 06 | vs |  Coppin State #364 | +20.4 | 95% | |
| Thu Nov 12 | N |  Kansas City #338 | +9.2 | 77% | |
| Sat Nov 14 | N |  Bradley #194 | +3.7 | 62% | |
| Wed Nov 18 | vs |  North Carolina Central #353 | +16.8 | 92% | |
| Sat Nov 21 | vs |  South Florida #83 | +3.9 | 62% | |
| Wed Nov 25 | vs |  Longwood #195 | +10.1 | 79% | |
| Sat Nov 28 | vs |  Marist #205 | +9.9 | 79% | |
| Wed Dec 02 | at |  High Point #40 | -12.8 | 15% | |
| Tue Dec 08 | vs |  Morgan State #348 | +16.9 | 92% | |
| Sat Dec 12 | vs |  Old Dominion #297 | +13.4 | 86% | |
| Sat Dec 19 | N |  Towson #193 | +3.4 | 61% | |
| Tue Dec 22 | vs |  Bryant #327 | +14.0 | 88% | |
| Wed Dec 30 | vs |  Richmond #136 | conf | +4.7 | 65% |
| Sat Jan 02 | at |  Rhode Island #148 | conf | -1.2 | 46% |
| Wed Jan 06 | vs |  Fordham #125 | conf | +3.9 | 63% |
| Sat Jan 09 | at |  Saint Joseph's #129 | conf | -1.3 | 46% |
| Wed Jan 13 | vs |  St. Bonaventure #126 | conf | +4.1 | 63% |
| Mon Jan 18 | at |  George Washington #119 | conf | -2.3 | 43% |
| Sat Jan 23 | vs |  Loyola Chicago #166 | conf | +5.7 | 68% |
| Wed Jan 27 | at |  VCU #44 | conf | -8.9 | 23% |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs | Saint Joseph's #129 | conf | +4.3 | 64% |
| Wed Feb 03 | at | St. Bonaventure #126 | conf | -1.2 | 46% |
| Sat Feb 06 | vs | George Washington #119 | conf | +4.0 | 63% |
| Sat Feb 13 | at |  Davidson #132 | conf | -1.0 | 47% |
| Wed Feb 17 | vs |  La Salle #218 | conf | +7.2 | 72% |
| Sat Feb 20 | at |  Duquesne #156 | conf | -0.2 | 49% |
| Tue Feb 23 | at |  Dayton #74 | conf | -6.0 | 31% |
| Fri Feb 26 | vs | VCU #44 | conf | -2.7 | 41% |
| Wed Mar 03 | vs | Rhode Island #148 | conf | +5.1 | 66% |
| Sat Mar 06 | at |  Saint Louis #56 | conf | -7.8 | 26% |
Projected margin is from George Mason's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.