Roster Math

Teams › A-10 · Compare Davidson with another team

Davidson

Davidson returns 63% of last season's minutes and rates #142 on offense and #127 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -5.0 to +9.6.

+2.2
Rating · #132 of 365
+0.9
Offense · #142
+1.3
Defense · #127
-5.0 to +9.6
80% range
<1%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
17-15
Projected record · 11 to 23 wins
8-10
Projected in A-10 · 5 to 12 wins

Why we have them here

Davidson's preseason projection of +2.2 (No. 132 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +1.0, about the +1.1 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 136 at the end of 2025-26) adds +0.4, about its neighbours' +0.3; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +0.5. It returns 63% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (53%). The projection leans most on Nick Janowski (+1.6), Josh Scovens (+1.5) and Hunter Adam (+0.7); the newcomer who matters most is Nick Janowski, a transfer from St. Thomas-Minnesota, at +1.6. Its 80% range, -5.0 to +9.6, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 63% · Transfer 20% · Other newcomer 4%

Nick Janowski+1.6
Josh Scovens+1.5
Hunter Adam+0.7
Sam Brown+0.5
Nick Coval+0.4
Jackson Keith+0.1
Ian Platteeuw+0.0
John Nowland-0.4
Phillip Kavu-0.4
Quadri Bashiru-0.4
JaQualon Roberts-0.6
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
631Josh ScovensG6-63ReturningDavidson23+2.7+1.5
676Nick JanowskiG6-41TransferSt. Thomas-Minnesota28+2.2+1.6
987Hunter AdamG6-73ReturningDavidson18+1.6+0.7
1120Sam BrownG6-33ReturningDavidson22+1.0+0.5
1242Nick CovalG6-21ReturningDavidson19+0.7+0.4
1529Jackson KeithF6-51TransferButler12+0.2+0.1
1647Ian PlatteeuwG7-01ReturningDavidson16+0.0+0.0
3388Quadri BashiruF6-100Other newcomer9-1.8-0.4
3452John NowlandF6-81ReturningDavidson7-2.0-0.4
3565Phillip KavuG6-21ReturningDavidson7-2.1-0.4
3971JaQualon RobertsF6-83ReturningDavidson13-1.9-0.6

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02atWashington State #162-5.134%
Sat Nov 07vsMercer #231+9.177%
Tue Nov 10vsBradley #194+7.974%
Sat Nov 14vsHoward #196+7.974%
Tue Nov 17vsCharlotte #131+5.166%
Mon Nov 23NNorthern Iowa #88-2.841%
Wed Nov 25NTulane #250+4.063%
Sun Nov 29atFlorida Atlantic #122-6.630%
Wed Dec 02vsDartmouth #290+11.182%
Sun Dec 06atCharleston #141-4.636%
Wed Dec 09vsCampbell #224+8.876%
Sat Dec 12vsSouth Carolina Upstate #268+10.280%
Fri Dec 18NDrake #104-1.445%
Tue Dec 22vsUT Martin #271+9.879%
Wed Dec 30atDuquesne #156conf-1.545%
Sat Jan 02vsDayton #74conf-2.143%
Wed Jan 06atVCU #44conf-10.220%
Sat Jan 09vsRichmond #136conf+2.658%
Sat Jan 16atLoyola Chicago #166conf-1.246%
Wed Jan 20vsFordham #125conf+1.956%
Sat Jan 23atLa Salle #218conf+0.150%
Wed Jan 27vsSaint Joseph's #129conf+2.157%
Sat Jan 30vsLoyola Chicago #166conf+3.762%
Wed Feb 03atRichmond #136conf-2.343%
Sun Feb 07atRhode Island #148conf-2.542%
Wed Feb 10vsSt. Bonaventure #126conf+2.056%
Sat Feb 13vsGeorge Mason #107conf+1.053%
Tue Feb 16atSaint Louis #56conf-9.223%
Wed Feb 24vsGeorge Washington #119conf+1.856%
Sat Feb 27atSaint Joseph's #129conf-2.542%
Wed Mar 03atFordham #125conf-2.044%
Sat Mar 06vsDuquesne #156conf+3.461%

Projected margin is from Davidson's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.