Roster Math

Teams › Big South · Compare South Carolina Upstate with another team

South Carolina Upstate

South Carolina Upstate returns 81% of last season's minutes and rates #341 on offense and #126 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -12.3 to +2.3.

-5.0
Rating · #268 of 365
-6.3
Offense · #341
+1.3
Defense · #126
-12.3 to +2.3
80% range
0%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
12-16
Projected record · 7 to 18 wins
7-9
Projected in Big South · 4 to 11 wins

Why we have them here

South Carolina Upstate's preseason projection of -5.0 (No. 268 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -1.0, more than the -2.8 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 270 at the end of 2025-26) adds -1.2, about its neighbours' -0.8; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -3.1. It returns 81% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (70%). The projection leans most on Learic Davis (+1.5), Jafeth Martinez (+1.0) and Breylin Garcia (+0.7); the newcomer who matters most is Miles Webb, a transfer from Delaware State, at +0.3. Its 80% range, -12.3 to +2.3, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 78% · Transfer 15% · Other newcomer 7%

Learic Davis+1.5
Jafeth Martinez+1.0
Breylin Garcia+0.7
Isaiah Skinner+0.5
Miles Webb+0.3
TJ Lewis-0.3
Nic Book-0.4
Alessandro Perotti-0.4
David Tubek-0.5
CJ Rich-0.6
Chico Johnson-0.7
Coen Collier-0.8
Tyler Smith-0.9
Mason Bendinger-1.7
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
617Learic DavisF6-63ReturningSouth Carolina Upstate21+2.8+1.5
849Jafeth MartinezF6-91ReturningSouth Carolina Upstate21+1.9+1.0
974Breylin GarciaF6-62ReturningSouth Carolina Upstate15+1.8+0.7
1127Isaiah SkinnerG6-52ReturningSouth Carolina Upstate19+1.0+0.5
1284Miles WebbF6-84TransferDelaware State23+0.6+0.3
3336TJ LewisF6-40Other newcomer6-2.0-0.3
3588Nic BookF6-82ReturningSouth Carolina Upstate9-2.0-0.4
3831Alessandro PerottiF6-100Other newcomer7-2.4-0.4
4114Tyler SmithG6-01ReturningSouth Carolina Upstate21-1.6-0.9
4143David TubekF6-73TransferUTEP7-2.9-0.5
4313CJ RichG5-93ReturningSouth Carolina Upstate8-3.0-0.6
4521Coen CollierC7-11ReturningSouth Carolina Upstate12-2.8-0.8
4713Chico JohnsonG6-22ReturningSouth Carolina Upstate6-4.4-0.7
4997Mason BendingerG6-41ReturningSouth Carolina Upstate24-2.9-1.7

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02atEast Carolina #182-8.425%
Fri Nov 06vsSouth Carolina State #360+11.983%
Mon Nov 09atCoastal Carolina #301-3.838%
Sat Nov 14atCampbell #224-7.827%
Wed Nov 18vsSamford #190+2.558%
Sat Nov 21atUNC Greensboro #246-6.630%
Wed Nov 25atThe Citadel #345-1.147%
Sun Nov 29vsWest Georgia #295+6.570%
Wed Dec 02vsGeorgia Southern #298+6.670%
Sat Dec 05atNorth Carolina Central #353-1.047%
Sat Dec 12atDavidson #132-10.220%
Wed Dec 16atButler #86-14.712%
Mon Dec 21atMiami #18-22.93%
Fri Jan 01vsUNC Asheville #245conf+1.154%
Sun Jan 03atHigh Point #40conf-16.99%
Wed Jan 06vsRadford #241conf+1.254%
Sat Jan 09vsWinthrop #177conf-1.047%
Wed Jan 13atCharleston Southern #276conf-2.143%
Wed Jan 20atPresbyterian #243conf-3.240%
Sat Jan 23vsGardner-Webb #361conf+9.077%
Thu Jan 28atLongwood #195conf-4.735%
Sat Jan 30vsHigh Point #40conf-11.218%
Wed Feb 03vsPresbyterian #243conf+1.154%
Sat Feb 06atRadford #241conf-3.439%
Sat Feb 13atWinthrop #177conf-5.633%
Thu Feb 18vsCharleston Southern #276conf+2.458%
Sat Feb 20atUNC Asheville #245conf-3.539%
Thu Feb 25atGardner-Webb #361conf+5.367%
Sat Feb 27vsLongwood #195conf-0.449%

Projected margin is from South Carolina Upstate's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.