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Longwood
Longwood returns 48% of last season's minutes and rates #221 on offense and #183 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -8.6 to +5.7.
Why we have them here
Longwood's preseason projection of -1.4 (No. 195 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -1.4, about the -1.0 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 250 at the end of 2025-26) adds -0.8, about its neighbours' -0.2; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +0.4. It returns 48% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (66%). The projection leans most on MJ Williams (+2.7), Johan Nziemi (+0.9) and TJ Robinson (+0.0); the newcomer who matters most is MJ Williams, a transfer from Eastern Kentucky, at +2.7. Its 80% range, -8.6 to +5.7, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 45% · Transfer 35% · Other newcomer 20%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 284 | MJ Williams | G | 5-10 | 1 | Transfer | Eastern Kentucky | 24 | +4.5 | +2.7 |
| 945 | Johan Nziemi | F | 6-6 | 3 | Returning | Longwood | 24 | +1.5 | +0.9 |
| 1612 | TJ Robinson | G | 6-4 | 1 | Transfer | Saint Peter's | 20 | +0.1 | +0.0 |
| 1909 | Jaylen Benard | G | 6-2 | 3 | Returning | Longwood | 19 | -0.3 | -0.1 |
| 2436 | Ben Wesson | G | 6-4 | 1 | Transfer | Vermont | 5 | -1.4 | -0.2 |
| 2997 | Jorke Aav | F | 6-1 | 0 | Other newcomer | 7 | -1.7 | -0.3 | |
| 3006 | Gerald Burr III | F | 6-2 | 0 | Other newcomer | 6 | -1.8 | -0.3 | |
| 3056 | Lazar Milosevic | F | 6-10 | 1 | Transfer | Duquesne | 9 | -1.5 | -0.3 |
| 3143 | Elijah Kelly | G | 6-7 | 1 | Returning | Longwood | 12 | -1.4 | -0.4 |
| 3274 | Elijah Thomas | F | 6-5 | 0 | Other newcomer | 7 | -2.0 | -0.3 | |
| 3366 | Kany Tchanda | F | 6-9 | 2 | Transfer | Boston College | 5 | -2.4 | -0.3 |
| 3383 | Abu Yarmah | F | 6-6 | 0 | Other newcomer | 7 | -2.0 | -0.3 | |
| 3383 | Will Dopfer | F | 6-6 | 0 | Other newcomer | 7 | -2.0 | -0.3 | |
| 3442 | Isaiah Kalala | F | 6-9 | 1 | Returning | Longwood | 5 | -2.3 | -0.3 |
| 3634 | Kany Musungay | F | 6-9 | 0 | Other newcomer | 7 | -2.2 | -0.4 | |
| 3662 | Jerome Williams | G | 6-0 | 1 | Returning | Longwood | 6 | -2.5 | -0.4 |
| 4095 | Jaylin Payne | F | 6-8 | 1 | Returning | Longwood | 8 | -2.6 | -0.5 |
| 4235 | Elijah Jones | F | 6-7 | 3 | Returning | Longwood | 15 | -2.1 | -0.8 |
| 5063 | Domas Kauzonas | F | 6-10 | 3 | Transfer | UNC Greensboro | 7 | -5.7 | -1.0 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed Nov 04 | at |  Saint Joseph's #129 | -8.5 | 25% | |
| Sat Nov 07 | vs |  North Carolina Central #353 | +13.0 | 85% | |
| Sat Nov 14 | at |  Old Dominion #297 | -1.8 | 44% | |
| Wed Nov 18 | vs |  VMI #350 | +12.7 | 85% | |
| Sat Nov 21 | at |  East Tennessee State #171 | -6.7 | 29% | |
| Wed Nov 25 | at |  George Mason #107 | -10.1 | 21% | |
| Sun Nov 29 | vs |  Maryland Eastern Shore #356 | +13.1 | 86% | |
| Wed Dec 02 | vs |  Campbell #224 | +6.4 | 70% | |
| Sun Dec 06 | at |  James Madison #147 | -7.7 | 27% | |
| Sat Dec 12 | at |  Delaware State #363 | +5.2 | 66% | |
| Wed Dec 16 | at |  Elon #198 | -5.0 | 34% | |
| Sat Dec 19 | vs |  Morgan State #348 | +12.9 | 85% | |
| Tue Dec 22 | at |  Georgia Tech #140 | -7.9 | 26% | |
| Fri Jan 01 | vs |  Charleston Southern #276 | conf | +5.1 | 66% |
| Sun Jan 03 | vs |  Presbyterian #243 | conf | +3.6 | 61% |
| Wed Jan 06 | at |  Winthrop #177 | conf | -3.1 | 40% |
| Wed Jan 13 | at |  UNC Asheville #245 | conf | -1.1 | 46% |
| Sat Jan 16 | vs |  Radford #241 | conf | +3.8 | 62% |
| Wed Jan 20 | vs |  Gardner-Webb #361 | conf | +11.8 | 83% |
| Sat Jan 23 | at |  High Point #40 | conf | -14.6 | 12% |
| Thu Jan 28 | vs |  South Carolina Upstate #268 | conf | +4.7 | 65% |
| Sat Jan 30 | at | Charleston Southern #276 | conf | +0.5 | 52% |
| Wed Feb 03 | vs | Winthrop #177 | conf | +1.6 | 55% |
| Sat Feb 06 | at | Presbyterian #243 | conf | -0.8 | 47% |
| Thu Feb 11 | at | Gardner-Webb #361 | conf | +8.0 | 74% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs | UNC Asheville #245 | conf | +3.6 | 62% |
| Sat Feb 20 | at | Radford #241 | conf | -0.9 | 47% |
| Thu Feb 25 | vs | High Point #40 | conf | -8.7 | 24% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at | South Carolina Upstate #268 | conf | +0.4 | 51% |
Projected margin is from Longwood's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.