Roster Math

Teams › Big South · Compare Winthrop with another team

Winthrop

Winthrop returns 62% of last season's minutes and rates #159 on offense and #227 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -8.0 to +6.6.

-0.6
Rating · #177 of 365
+0.5
Offense · #159
-1.1
Defense · #227
-8.0 to +6.6
80% range
0%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
14-14
Projected record · 9 to 19 wins
9-7
Projected in Big South · 5 to 12 wins

Why we have them here

Winthrop's preseason projection of -0.6 (No. 177 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -2.6, less than the -0.2 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 91 at the end of 2025-26) adds +1.0, about its neighbours' +0.3; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +0.6. It returns 62% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (69%). The projection leans most on Tommy Kamarad (+0.5), Seifeldin Hendawy (+0.0) and Tai Hamilton (+0.0); the newcomer who matters most is Keshawn Fisher, a transfer from Detroit Mercy, at -0.1. Its 80% range, -8.0 to +6.6, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 58% · Transfer 29% · Other newcomer 4%

Tommy Kamarad+0.5
Seifeldin Hendawy+0.0
Tai Hamilton+0.0
Keshawn Fisher-0.1
Anthony Smith III-0.2
Kaleb Evans-0.3
Pharrell Boyogueno-0.3
Braylhan Thomas-0.4
Cam Christy-0.4
Henry Harrison-0.4
Josh Meo-1.2
Micah Davis-1.6
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
1171Tommy KamaradF6-82ReturningWinthrop20+0.9+0.5
1639Seifeldin HendawyG6-82ReturningWinthrop19+0.0+0.0
1716Tai HamiltonF6-103ReturningWinthrop15-0.1+0.0
1906Keshawn FisherG6-71TransferDetroit Mercy16-0.3-0.1
2157Anthony Smith IIIG6-11TransferNorth Dakota19-0.5-0.2
2357Pharrell BoyoguenoG6-62ReturningWinthrop15-0.7-0.3
2654Kaleb EvansF6-40Other newcomer9-1.2-0.3
2933Braylhan ThomasG6-62ReturningWinthrop11-1.3-0.4
3212Cam ChristyG6-42ReturningWinthrop9-1.7-0.4
3717Henry HarrisonG5-113ReturningWinthrop8-2.2-0.4
4733Josh MeoG6-42ReturningWinthrop19-2.5-1.2
4964Micah DavisG6-22TransferIU Indianapolis22-2.8-1.6

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02NQueens University #142-1.545%
Sat Nov 07vsNorth Dakota #310+10.680%
Tue Nov 10atKennesaw State #167-6.630%
Sat Nov 14vsJackson State #355+14.888%
Wed Nov 18vsChattanooga #226+7.072%
Sat Nov 21atWofford #306-0.349%
Mon Nov 23atIllinois #5-23.13%
Wed Dec 02atSouth Carolina State #360+3.762%
Sat Dec 05atCoastal Carolina #301-0.748%
Sat Dec 12atUtah State #29-18.07%
Mon Dec 14atWyoming #121-8.425%
Wed Dec 16atNorth Texas #135-7.128%
Fri Jan 01vsGardner-Webb #361conf+12.685%
Sun Jan 03atUNC Asheville #245conf-0.648%
Wed Jan 06vsLongwood #195conf+3.160%
Sat Jan 09atSouth Carolina Upstate #268conf+1.053%
Wed Jan 13vsRadford #241conf+4.765%
Sat Jan 16atPresbyterian #243conf-0.249%
Wed Jan 20vsHigh Point #40conf-7.827%
Sat Jan 23vsCharleston Southern #276conf+6.069%
Sat Jan 30atRadford #241conf-0.249%
Wed Feb 03atLongwood #195conf-1.645%
Sat Feb 06vsUNC Asheville #245conf+4.564%
Thu Feb 11atCharleston Southern #276conf+1.254%
Sat Feb 13vsSouth Carolina Upstate #268conf+5.667%
Thu Feb 18atHigh Point #40conf-13.813%
Sat Feb 20atGardner-Webb #361conf+8.575%
Thu Feb 25vsPresbyterian #243conf+4.464%

Projected margin is from Winthrop's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.