Teams › Big Ten · Compare Illinois with another team
Illinois
Illinois returns 60% of last season's minutes and rates #2 on offense and #15 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +15.8 to +30.6.
Why we have them here
Illinois's preseason projection of +23.2 (No. 5 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +12.3, about the +12.1 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 5 at the end of 2025-26) adds +5.1, more than its neighbours' +3.9; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +3.1. A stretch at the top of the scale adds +1.1, because a straight-line calibration shrinks elite teams. It returns 60% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (38%). The projection leans most on David Mirkovic (+6.3), Tomislav Ivisic (+4.9) and Andrej Stojakovic (+3.8); the newcomer who matters most is Stefan Vaaks, a transfer from Providence, at +2.7. Its 80% range, +15.8 to +30.6, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 60% · Transfer 13% · Freshman 27%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | David Mirkovic | F | 6-9 | 1 | Returning | Illinois | 27 | +9.5 | +6.3 |
| 47 | Tomislav Ivisic | C | 7-1 | 2 | Returning | Illinois | 23 | +8.5 | +4.9 |
| 102 | Zvonimir Ivisic | C | 7-2 | 3 | Returning | Illinois | 18 | +7.9 | +3.5 |
| 119 | Andrej Stojakovic | G | 6-7 | 3 | Returning | Illinois | 23 | +6.7 | +3.8 |
| 323 | Stefan Vaaks | G | 6-7 | 1 | Transfer | Providence | 26 | +4.2 | +2.7 |
| 621 | Quentin Coleman | G | 6-4 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 20 | +2.9 | +1.4 |
| 812 | Jake Davis | F | 6-6 | 3 | Returning | Illinois | 16 | +2.4 | +1.0 |
| 942 | Jason Jakstys | F | 6-10 | 1 | Returning | Illinois | 8 | +2.6 | +0.5 |
| 1358 | Blake Fagbemi | G | 6-0 | 1 | Returning | Illinois | 5 | +0.9 | +0.1 |
| 1514 | Lucas Morillo | G | 6-7 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 8 | +0.3 | +0.1 |
| 1553 | Quentin McCoy | F | 6-1 | 2 | Other newcomer | 1 | +0.7 | +0.0 | |
| 1813 | Zavier Zens | F | 6-7 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 7 | -0.3 | -0.1 |
| 1867 | Lincoln Williams | F | 6-5 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 7 | -0.4 | -0.1 |
| 2446 | Ethan Brown | G | 6-4 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 6 | -1.2 | -0.2 |
| 2468 | Landon Davis | F | 6-8 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 6 | -1.2 | -0.2 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | vs |  Fairleigh Dickinson #334 | +27.2 | 99% | |
| Thu Nov 05 | vs |  Pennsylvania #144 | +21.8 | 96% | |
| Tue Nov 10 | at |  Texas Tech #15 | -4.4 | 36% | |
| Fri Nov 13 | vs |  Sam Houston #185 | +23.2 | 97% | |
| Tue Nov 17 | at |  Duke #2 | -8.5 | 24% | |
| Fri Nov 20 | vs |  Eastern Illinois #324 | +27.3 | 99% | |
| Mon Nov 23 | vs |  Winthrop #177 | +23.1 | 97% | |
| Fri Nov 27 | vs |  Western Kentucky #160 | +22.3 | 96% | |
| Fri Dec 04 | N |  UConn #4 | -0.2 | 49% | |
| Tue Dec 08 | at |  Minnesota #65 | conf | +5.4 | 67% |
| Sat Dec 12 | vs |  Penn State #89 | conf | +14.4 | 88% |
| Sun Dec 20 | N |  Missouri #43 | +6.8 | 71% | |
| Tue Dec 29 | at |  Seattle U #111 | +7.3 | 72% | |
| Sat Jan 02 | at |  Wisconsin #34 | conf | +2.5 | 58% |
| Tue Jan 05 | vs |  Purdue #38 | conf | +9.4 | 78% |
| Sat Jan 09 | vs |  Ohio State #27 | conf | +8.2 | 75% |
| Wed Jan 13 | at |  Northwestern #79 | conf | +6.8 | 71% |
| Sat Jan 16 | at |  Maryland #64 | conf | +5.7 | 68% |
| Tue Jan 19 | vs |  Nebraska #12 | conf | +5.0 | 66% |
| Sun Jan 24 | at |  Indiana #55 | conf | +4.2 | 63% |
| Wed Jan 27 | vs |  USC #35 | conf | +9.9 | 79% |
| Sat Jan 30 | N |  North Carolina #54 | +8.0 | 74% | |
| Tue Feb 02 | vs |  UCLA #28 | conf | +8.3 | 75% |
| Fri Feb 05 | at |  Michigan State #6 | conf | -3.0 | 40% |
| Tue Feb 09 | at |  Michigan #11 | conf | -1.3 | 46% |
| Fri Feb 12 | at | Purdue #38 | conf | +3.1 | 60% |
| Tue Feb 16 | vs | Northwestern #79 | conf | +13.3 | 86% |
| Sat Feb 20 | at |  Oregon #58 | conf | +5.7 | 68% |
| Tue Feb 23 | at |  Washington #92 | conf | +8.8 | 76% |
| Sun Feb 28 | vs | Wisconsin #34 | conf | +9.5 | 78% |
| Wed Mar 03 | at |  Rutgers #102 | conf | +9.5 | 78% |
| Sat Mar 06 | vs |  Iowa #33 | conf | +8.6 | 76% |
Projected margin is from Illinois's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.