Teams › Big Ten · Compare Michigan with another team
Michigan
Michigan returns 47% of last season's minutes and rates #25 on offense and #7 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +13.2 to +28.2.
Why we have them here
Michigan's preseason projection of +20.7 (No. 11 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +11.9, about the +11.5 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 1 at the end of 2025-26) adds +5.9, more than its neighbours' +3.8; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +2.2. A stretch at the top of the scale adds +1.0, because a straight-line calibration shrinks elite teams. It returns 47% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (33%). The projection leans most on Elliot Cadeau (+6.6), Trey McKenney (+5.7) and Moustapha Thiam (+3.8); the newcomer who matters most is Moustapha Thiam, a transfer from Cincinnati, at +3.8. Its 80% range, +13.2 to +28.2, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 46% · Transfer 30% · Freshman 21% · Other newcomer 2%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Elliot Cadeau | G | 6-1 | 3 | Returning | Michigan | 29 | +9.3 | +6.6 |
| 32 | Trey McKenney | G | 6-4 | 1 | Returning | Michigan | 27 | +8.5 | +5.7 |
| 128 | J.P. Estrella | F | 6-11 | 3 | Transfer | Tennessee | 21 | +6.8 | +3.5 |
| 146 | Moustapha Thiam | C | 7-2 | 2 | Transfer | Cincinnati | 26 | +5.8 | +3.8 |
| 683 | Roddy Gayle Jr. | G | 6-5 | 4 | Returning | Michigan | 21 | +2.6 | +1.3 |
| 1036 | Jalen Reed | F | 6-10 | 4 | Transfer | LSU | 14 | +1.5 | +0.6 |
| 1079 | Oscar Goodman | F | 6-7 | 1 | Returning | Michigan | 10 | +1.7 | +0.4 |
| 1111 | Howard Eisley Jr. | G | 6-0 | 2 | Returning | Michigan | 6 | +1.9 | +0.3 |
| 1127 | Quinn Costello | F | 6-10 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 12 | +1.3 | +0.4 |
| 1136 | Lincoln Cosby | F | 6-8 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 12 | +1.3 | +0.4 |
| 1519 | Ricky Liburd | F | 6-4 | 0 | Other newcomer | 1 | +0.9 | +0.0 | |
| 1528 | Brandon McCoy Jr. | F | 6-5 | 0 | Other newcomer | 1 | +0.9 | +0.0 | |
| 1540 | Harrison Hochberg | F | 6-7 | 3 | Other newcomer | 1 | +0.7 | +0.0 | |
| 1600 | Marcus Moller | F | 7-3 | 0 | Other newcomer | 2 | +0.2 | +0.0 | |
| 1780 | Malachi Brown | F | 6-5 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 10 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| 1899 | Joseph Hartman | G | 6-6 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 9 | -0.4 | -0.1 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | vs |  Oakland #159 | +21.3 | 96% | |
| Fri Nov 06 | N |  UConn #4 | -1.9 | 44% | |
| Wed Nov 11 | vs |  Marquette #47 | +12.6 | 84% | |
| Sun Nov 15 | vs |  William & Mary #168 | +22.5 | 96% | |
| Sat Nov 21 | at |  Villanova #24 | -4.7 | 35% | |
| Tue Nov 24 | N |  Creighton #41 | +5.3 | 67% | |
| Tue Dec 01 | vs |  Mississippi Valley State #365 | +39.9 | >99% | |
| Sat Dec 05 | N |  Louisville #7 | -1.2 | 46% | |
| Wed Dec 09 | at |  Rutgers #102 | conf | +8.3 | 75% |
| Sat Dec 12 | vs |  Northwestern #79 | conf | +11.9 | 83% |
| Mon Dec 21 | vs |  Detroit Mercy #312 | +27.0 | 98% | |
| Wed Dec 30 | vs |  Toledo #173 | +21.4 | 96% | |
| Sat Jan 02 | vs |  Washington #92 | conf | +13.3 | 86% |
| Tue Jan 05 | at |  Nebraska #12 | conf | -3.4 | 39% |
| Fri Jan 08 | vs |  Purdue #38 | conf | +7.9 | 74% |
| Tue Jan 12 | vs |  Minnesota #65 | conf | +10.4 | 80% |
| Sat Jan 16 | at |  Indiana #55 | conf | +2.6 | 58% |
| Tue Jan 19 | vs |  Oregon #58 | conf | +10.1 | 79% |
| Sat Jan 23 | at |  USC #35 | conf | +1.8 | 56% |
| Tue Jan 26 | at |  UCLA #28 | conf | -0.3 | 49% |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs |  Ohio State #27 | conf | +6.5 | 70% |
| Sat Feb 06 | at |  Wisconsin #34 | conf | +0.8 | 53% |
| Tue Feb 09 | vs |  Illinois #5 | conf | +1.3 | 54% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs |  Michigan State #6 | conf | +1.7 | 56% |
| Tue Feb 16 | at | Minnesota #65 | conf | +4.1 | 63% |
| Sat Feb 20 | vs |  Iowa #33 | conf | +7.0 | 72% |
| Tue Feb 23 | at |  Penn State #89 | conf | +6.1 | 69% |
| Fri Feb 26 | at | Michigan State #6 | conf | -5.0 | 34% |
| Thu Mar 04 | vs |  Maryland #64 | conf | +10.8 | 81% |
| Sun Mar 07 | at | Ohio State #27 | conf | -0.1 | 50% |
Projected margin is from Michigan's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.