Roster Math

Teams › Big Ten · Compare UCLA with another team

UCLA

UCLA returns 48% of last season's minutes and rates #37 on offense and #25 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +8.2 to +22.9.

+15.6
Rating · #28 of 365
+8.8
Offense · #37
+6.8
Defense · #25
+8.2 to +22.9
80% range
32%
Chance of top 25
<1%
Chance of No. 1
20-11
Projected record · 15 to 25 wins
11-9
Projected in Big Ten · 7 to 15 wins

Why we have them here

UCLA's preseason projection of +15.6 (No. 28 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +8.9, about the +9.1 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 40 at the end of 2025-26) adds +2.6, about its neighbours' +3.0; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +1.4. A stretch at the top of the scale adds +0.5, because a straight-line calibration shrinks elite teams. It returns 48% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (29%). The projection leans most on Eric Dailey Jr. (+5.0), Trent Perry (+4.5) and Jaylen Petty (+3.2); the newcomer who matters most is Jaylen Petty, a transfer from Texas Tech, at +3.2. Its 80% range, +8.2 to +22.9, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 47% · Transfer 38% · Freshman 13% · Other newcomer 3%

Eric Dailey Jr.+5.0
Trent Perry+4.5
Jaylen Petty+3.2
Filip Jovic+1.1
Sergej Macura+1.0
Azavier Robinson+1.0
Xavier Booker+0.9
Nikola Kusturica+0.2
Joe Philon+0.1
Eric Freeny+0.1
Javonte Floyd+0.0
Brandon Williams+0.0
Markell Alston+0.0
Gunars Grinvalds-0.1
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
59Eric Dailey Jr.G6-83ReturningUCLA26+7.7+5.0
99Trent PerryG6-42ReturningUCLA28+6.4+4.5
212Jaylen PettyG6-11TransferTexas Tech26+5.0+3.2
749Filip JovicF6-81TransferAuburn18+2.5+1.1
759Azavier RobinsonG6-21TransferButler15+2.6+1.0
760Sergej MacuraF6-91TransferMississippi State16+2.6+1.0
867Xavier BookerF6-113ReturningUCLA18+2.0+0.9
1270Nikola KusturicaF6-70FreshmanHigh school10+0.9+0.2
1370Joe PhilonF6-80FreshmanHigh school9+0.6+0.1
1423Eric FreenyG6-41ReturningUCLA10+0.4+0.1
1656Javonte FloydC6-90FreshmanHigh school6+0.0+0.0
1660Brandon WilliamsG6-73ReturningUCLA11+0.0+0.0
1767Markell AlstonF6-10Other newcomer2-0.4+0.0
2000Gunars GrinvaldsF6-90Other newcomer3-0.9-0.1

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02NArizona #3-5.932%
Fri Nov 06vsNorth Florida #321+23.997%
Wed Nov 11vsArkansas-Pine Bluff #349+26.098%
Mon Nov 16vsLong Beach State #278+21.296%
Wed Nov 18vsCal State Fullerton #236+21.095%
Sun Nov 22vsDelaware #325+22.096%
Thu Nov 26NSaint Mary's #60+3.561%
Tue Dec 01vsOregon #58conf+6.971%
Sat Dec 05NGonzaga #14-3.140%
Sun Dec 13atWashington #92conf+3.662%
Sat Dec 19vsQuinnipiac #200+19.094%
Tue Dec 22vsUC Riverside #252+19.995%
Tue Dec 29vsSan Diego State #81+12.384%
Sat Jan 02atMaryland #64conf+0.652%
Tue Jan 05atRutgers #102conf+4.464%
Sat Jan 09vsMichigan State #6conf-1.047%
Sat Jan 16vsWashington #92conf+9.879%
Tue Jan 19vsWisconsin #34conf+4.664%
Fri Jan 22atNebraska #12conf-6.530%
Tue Jan 26vsMichigan #11conf+0.351%
Sat Jan 30atIndiana #55conf-0.947%
Tue Feb 02atIllinois #5conf-8.325%
Sat Feb 06vsIowa #33conf+4.163%
Tue Feb 09vsMinnesota #65conf+7.272%
Sat Feb 13atUSC #35conf-1.944%
Wed Feb 17vsOhio State #27conf+3.561%
Sun Feb 21atPurdue #38conf-1.844%
Wed Feb 24atNorthwestern #79conf+1.856%
Sat Feb 27vsPenn State #89conf+9.678%
Wed Mar 03atOregon #58conf+0.652%
Sat Mar 06vsUSC #35conf+4.965%

Projected margin is from UCLA's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.