Teams › WCC · Compare Saint Mary's with another team
Saint Mary's
Saint Mary's returns 56% of last season's minutes and rates #73 on offense and #50 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +2.8 to +17.7.
Why we have them here
Saint Mary's's preseason projection of +10.2 (No. 60 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +2.8, less than the +6.2 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 24 at the end of 2025-26) adds +3.0, more than its neighbours' +1.4; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +3.8. It returns 56% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (38%). The projection leans most on Joshua Dent (+5.0), Mantas Juzenas (+1.0) and Darius Bivins (+0.6); the newcomer who matters most is Darius Bivins, a freshman, recruit No. 72, at +0.6. Its 80% range, +2.8 to +17.7, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 48% · Transfer 23% · Freshman 10% · Other newcomer 12%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88 | Joshua Dent | G | 6-3 | 2 | Returning | Saint Mary's | 32 | +6.2 | +5.0 |
| 780 | Mantas Juzenas | G | 6-6 | 1 | Returning | Saint Mary's | 17 | +2.4 | +1.0 |
| 1047 | Darius Bivins | G | 5-11 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 20 | +1.3 | +0.6 |
| 1204 | Vangelis Zougris | F | 6-8 | 1 | Transfer | Louisville | 16 | +0.9 | +0.4 |
| 1292 | Salih Altuntas | F | 6-10 | 1 | Transfer | Miami | 17 | +0.7 | +0.3 |
| 1372 | Cade Bennett | G | 6-0 | 3 | Returning | Saint Mary's | 13 | +0.5 | +0.2 |
| 1781 | Myles Che | F | 6-3 | 3 | Other newcomer | 7 | -0.2 | +0.0 | |
| 1862 | Kevin Gad | F | 6-6 | 3 | Returning | Saint Mary's | 16 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| 1997 | Trent MacLean | F | 6-8 | 0 | Other newcomer | 8 | -0.5 | -0.1 | |
| 2249 | Jazz Gardner | F | 7-0 | 3 | Other newcomer | 8 | -0.8 | -0.2 | |
| 3555 | Luke Fennell | G | 6-6 | 1 | Transfer | Syracuse | 13 | -1.6 | -0.5 |
| 4364 | Rory Hawke | G | 6-5 | 3 | Returning | Saint Mary's | 17 | -2.2 | -0.9 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | vs |  Illinois State #108 | +10.1 | 80% | |
| Wed Nov 04 | vs |  North Dakota State #225 | +14.9 | 89% | |
| Sun Nov 08 | N |  Nevada #66 | +0.5 | 52% | |
| Fri Nov 13 | vs |  UIC #120 | +11.1 | 82% | |
| Mon Nov 16 | vs |  Portland State #186 | +13.8 | 87% | |
| Fri Nov 20 | vs |  Saint Louis #56 | +5.9 | 68% | |
| Thu Nov 26 | N |  UCLA #28 | -3.5 | 39% | |
| Tue Dec 01 | vs |  Hofstra #124 | +10.8 | 81% | |
| Sat Dec 05 | at |  Oklahoma State #91 | -3.8 | 38% | |
| Wed Dec 09 | vs |  New Mexico State #137 | +11.9 | 84% | |
| Sat Dec 12 | at |  New Mexico #50 | -7.2 | 28% | |
| Fri Dec 18 | vs |  Iona #282 | +17.5 | 92% | |
| Tue Dec 22 | vs |  Harvard #123 | +10.6 | 81% | |
| Tue Dec 29 | vs |  Princeton #164 | +12.4 | 85% | |
| Sat Jan 02 | vs |  San Diego #263 | conf | +13.4 | 86% |
| Wed Jan 06 | at |  Denver #240 | conf | +7.6 | 73% |
| Wed Jan 13 | vs |  Portland #339 | conf | +16.9 | 91% |
| Sat Jan 16 | at |  Pepperdine #249 | conf | +7.6 | 73% |
| Wed Jan 20 | vs |  Pacific #175 | conf | +9.9 | 79% |
| Sat Jan 23 | vs |  Loyola Marymount #170 | conf | +10.3 | 80% |
| Wed Jan 27 | at |  San Francisco #189 | conf | +5.2 | 67% |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs |  Santa Clara #63 | conf | +3.6 | 61% |
| Wed Feb 03 | at | Portland #339 | conf | +10.9 | 81% |
| Sat Feb 06 | at |  Seattle U #111 | conf | +1.5 | 55% |
| Tue Feb 09 | vs | San Francisco #189 | conf | +10.6 | 81% |
| Sat Feb 13 | at | Loyola Marymount #170 | conf | +4.3 | 64% |
| Thu Feb 18 | at | Pacific #175 | conf | +5.3 | 67% |
| Sun Feb 21 | vs | Pepperdine #249 | conf | +12.7 | 85% |
| Wed Feb 24 | vs | Seattle U #111 | conf | +7.6 | 73% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at | Santa Clara #63 | conf | -2.6 | 42% |
Projected margin is from Saint Mary's's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.