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Pepperdine
Pepperdine returns 41% of last season's minutes and rates #178 on offense and #302 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -11.1 to +3.5.
Why we have them here
Pepperdine's preseason projection of -3.8 (No. 249 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -0.5, more than the -2.3 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 327 at the end of 2025-26) adds -2.0, less than its neighbours' -0.8; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -1.6. It returns 41% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (68%). The projection leans most on Petar Majstorovic (+3.5), Jahari Williamson (+1.1) and Evan Haywood (+0.9); the newcomer who matters most is Petar Majstorovic, a transfer from Long Beach State, at +3.5. Its 80% range, -11.1 to +3.5, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 38% · Transfer 50% · Freshman 9% · Other newcomer 4%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 203 | Petar Majstorovic | F | 6-8 | 2 | Transfer | Long Beach State | 29 | +4.8 | +3.5 |
| 846 | Jahari Williamson | G | 6-1 | 3 | Transfer | Kent State | 23 | +1.8 | +1.1 |
| 919 | Evan Haywood | G | 6-4 | 2 | Transfer | Butler | 21 | +1.7 | +0.9 |
| 1503 | Alex Constanza | F | 6-8 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 9 | +0.3 | +0.1 |
| 1891 | Anthony Robinson | F | 6-10 | 2 | Transfer | Xavier | 11 | -0.3 | -0.1 |
| 2322 | Pavle Stošic | F | 6-9 | 3 | Returning | Pepperdine | 16 | -0.6 | -0.3 |
| 2486 | Will McClendon | G | 6-3 | 4 | Transfer | North Texas | 17 | -0.8 | -0.3 |
| 2852 | Chace Holley | G | 6-0 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 9 | -1.4 | -0.3 |
| 3717 | Anto Balian | F | 6-1 | 0 | Other newcomer | 7 | -2.3 | -0.4 | |
| 3981 | Nikola Radovanovic | F | 6-9 | 1 | Returning | Pepperdine | 6 | -2.9 | -0.4 |
| 4295 | Pasha Shemirani | F | 6-5 | 1 | Returning | Pepperdine | 5 | -3.9 | -0.4 |
| 4478 | Vladimir Sudar | F | 6-5 | 1 | Returning | Pepperdine | 4 | -4.5 | -0.5 |
| 4737 | David Mager | G | 6-4 | 3 | Returning | Pepperdine | 10 | -3.6 | -0.9 |
| 4938 | Luka Vudragovic | G | 6-6 | 1 | Returning | Pepperdine | 10 | -4.1 | -1.0 |
| 5013 | Danilo Dozic | F | 6-10 | 2 | Returning | Pepperdine | 24 | -2.9 | -1.8 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | at | -10.8 | 19% | ||
| Wed Nov 11 | at | -7.6 | 27% | ||
| Sun Nov 15 | at | -15.7 | 10% | ||
| Thu Nov 19 | vs | -0.8 | 48% | ||
| Mon Nov 23 | vs | +4.9 | 65% | ||
| Wed Nov 25 | vs | +8.6 | 75% | ||
| Sat Nov 28 | N | +0.3 | 51% | ||
| Tue Dec 01 | at | -7.2 | 28% | ||
| Sat Dec 05 | vs | +7.0 | 71% | ||
| Wed Dec 09 | vs | +9.4 | 77% | ||
| Sun Dec 13 | at | -7.4 | 28% | ||
| Fri Dec 18 | at | -6.7 | 29% | ||
| Mon Dec 21 | vs | +3.6 | 61% | ||
| Tue Dec 29 | at | conf | -5.3 | 33% | |
| Sat Jan 02 | at | conf | +1.5 | 55% | |
| Wed Jan 06 | at | conf | -8.2 | 25% | |
| Sat Jan 09 | vs | conf | -0.6 | 48% | |
| Wed Jan 13 | vs | conf | +1.7 | 55% | |
| Sat Jan 16 | vs | conf | -7.6 | 27% | |
| Wed Jan 20 | at | conf | -12.7 | 15% | |
| Sat Jan 23 | at | conf | -4.1 | 37% | |
| Wed Jan 27 | vs | conf | +2.5 | 58% | |
| Sat Jan 30 | at | conf | -3.8 | 38% | |
| Sat Feb 06 | at | conf | -1.7 | 44% | |
| Wed Feb 10 | vs | conf | -3.4 | 39% | |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs | conf | -7.8 | 27% | |
| Wed Feb 17 | at | conf | -1.4 | 46% | |
| Sun Feb 21 | at | conf | -12.7 | 15% | |
| Wed Feb 24 | vs | conf | +6.0 | 69% | |
| Sat Feb 27 | vs | conf | -0.5 | 48% |
Projected margin is from Pepperdine's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.