Teams › Big West · Compare Sacramento State with another team
Sacramento State
Sacramento State returns 53% of last season's minutes and rates #181 on offense and #232 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -9.0 to +5.6.
Why we have them here
Sacramento State's preseason projection of -1.7 (No. 199 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +0.3, more than the -1.3 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 300 at the end of 2025-26) adds -1.5, less than its neighbours' -0.2; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -0.8. It returns 53% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (67%). The projection leans most on Prophet Johnson (+3.6), Marcus Wilson (+1.8) and Larry Hughes II (+1.4); the newcomer who matters most is Marcus Wilson, a transfer from UC Davis, at +1.8. Its 80% range, -9.0 to +5.6, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 51% · Transfer 42% · Freshman 4% · Other newcomer 2%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 164 | Prophet Johnson | G | 6-3 | 3 | Returning | Sacramento State | 27 | +5.5 | +3.6 |
| 502 | Marcus Wilson | G | 6-3 | 2 | Transfer | UC Davis | 21 | +3.4 | +1.8 |
| 661 | Larry Hughes II | G | 6-4 | 4 | Transfer | Cal State Northridge | 22 | +2.6 | +1.4 |
| 1474 | Ridvan Tutic | F | 6-11 | 4 | Transfer | Stonehill | 14 | +0.3 | +0.1 |
| 1863 | Arman Madi | G | 6-6 | 3 | Returning | Sacramento State | 14 | -0.3 | -0.1 |
| 2187 | Chidi Nwigwe | F | 6-7 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 4 | -1.1 | -0.1 |
| 2692 | Ashton Pierce | G | 6-3 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 5 | -1.6 | -0.2 |
| 2698 | Taj Glover | G | 6-3 | 1 | Returning | Sacramento State | 9 | -1.2 | -0.3 |
| 2701 | Joao Das Chagas | C | 6-10 | 1 | Transfer | UAB | 4 | -1.9 | -0.2 |
| 3093 | Zach Anderson | F | 6-3 | 0 | Other newcomer | 4 | -2.2 | -0.2 | |
| 3158 | Saša Ciani | F | 6-10 | 3 | Transfer | Penn State | 6 | -1.9 | -0.3 |
| 3388 | Mikey Williams | G | 6-3 | 2 | Returning | Sacramento State | 20 | -1.2 | -0.6 |
| 3491 | Isaiah Bronson | G | 6-2 | 1 | Returning | Sacramento State | 3 | -3.4 | -0.2 |
| 4285 | Romari Robinson | G | 6-4 | 1 | Returning | Sacramento State | 6 | -3.4 | -0.5 |
| 4396 | Brandon Gardner | F | 6-8 | 3 | Returning | Sacramento State | 8 | -3.2 | -0.6 |
| 4575 | Jahni Summers | G | 6-6 | 2 | Returning | Sacramento State | 16 | -2.5 | -1.0 |
| 5156 | Osiris Grady | F | 6-9 | 3 | Transfer | UC Riverside | 17 | -4.3 | -1.9 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Nov 07 | at |  Santa Clara #63 | -14.9 | 12% | |
| Sat Nov 14 | vs |  UC Davis #255 | +7.8 | 73% | |
| Thu Nov 19 | at |  Stanford #69 | -14.6 | 12% | |
| Sat Nov 28 | at |  Presbyterian #243 | -4.1 | 37% | |
| Thu Dec 03 | at |  Cal State Fullerton #236 | conf | -0.9 | 47% |
| Sat Dec 05 | at |  Utah Valley #112 | conf | -7.6 | 27% |
| Sun Dec 13 | vs |  Pepperdine #249 | +7.4 | 72% | |
| Sat Dec 19 | at |  Fresno State #221 | -5.2 | 34% | |
| Tue Dec 22 | vs |  Pacific #175 | +4.7 | 65% | |
| Thu Dec 31 | vs |  Cal State Northridge #227 | conf | +3.6 | 61% |
| Sat Jan 02 | vs |  Cal State Bakersfield #328 | conf | +7.8 | 73% |
| Thu Jan 07 | at |  UC Irvine #105 | conf | -6.9 | 29% |
| Sat Jan 09 | at |  UC San Diego #77 | conf | -9.1 | 23% |
| Thu Jan 14 | vs |  Cal Poly #223 | conf | +3.4 | 61% |
| Sat Jan 16 | vs |  UC Santa Barbara #103 | conf | -1.8 | 44% |
| Thu Jan 21 | vs |  UC Riverside #252 | conf | +4.2 | 63% |
| Sat Jan 23 | vs |  California Baptist #157 | conf | +0.8 | 53% |
| Thu Jan 28 | at | Cal State Bakersfield #328 | conf | +1.2 | 54% |
| Sat Jan 30 | at | Cal State Northridge #227 | conf | -1.7 | 45% |
| Thu Feb 04 | at | California Baptist #157 | conf | -4.1 | 37% |
| Sat Feb 06 | at | UC Riverside #252 | conf | -1.2 | 46% |
| Thu Feb 11 | vs | UC San Diego #77 | conf | -4.5 | 36% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs | UC Irvine #105 | conf | -1.8 | 44% |
| Thu Feb 18 | at |  Long Beach State #278 | conf | +0.8 | 53% |
| Sat Feb 20 | vs | Utah Valley #112 | conf | -1.3 | 46% |
| Thu Feb 25 | vs | Cal State Fullerton #236 | conf | +4.1 | 63% |
| Sat Feb 27 | vs | Long Beach State #278 | conf | +5.3 | 66% |
| Thu Mar 04 | at | UC Santa Barbara #103 | conf | -6.8 | 29% |
| Sat Mar 06 | at | Cal Poly #223 | conf | -1.7 | 45% |
Projected margin is from Sacramento State's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.