Teams › Big West · Compare Cal State Fullerton with another team
Cal State Fullerton
Cal State Fullerton returns 96% of last season's minutes and rates #213 on offense and #264 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -10.8 to +3.8.
Why we have them here
Cal State Fullerton's preseason projection of -3.5 (No. 236 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -1.2, more than the -2.4 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 214 at the end of 2025-26) adds -0.4, about its neighbours' -0.6; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -2.2. It returns 96% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (63%). The projection leans most on Joshua Ward (+2.2), Christian Williams (+1.2) and Jefferson De La Cruz Monegro (+0.8); the newcomer who matters most is Kidus Tilahun, a newcomer from outside Division I, at -0.2. Its 80% range, -10.8 to +3.8, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 76% · Other newcomer 24%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 445 | Joshua Ward | G | 6-1 | 3 | Returning | Cal State Fullerton | 27 | +3.4 | +2.2 |
| 784 | Christian Williams | G | 6-0 | 1 | Returning | Cal State Fullerton | 25 | +2.0 | +1.2 |
| 1009 | Jefferson De La Cruz Monegro | G | 6-3 | 3 | Returning | Cal State Fullerton | 25 | +1.2 | +0.8 |
| 1738 | Jaden Henderson | G | 6-3 | 1 | Returning | Cal State Fullerton | 17 | -0.1 | +0.0 |
| 2744 | Kidus Tilahun | F | 6-1 | 0 | Other newcomer | 6 | -1.6 | -0.2 | |
| 3079 | Yesan Warren | F | 6-1 | 0 | Other newcomer | 9 | -1.6 | -0.3 | |
| 3127 | Nicholas Khatchikian | F | 6-2 | 0 | Other newcomer | 8 | -1.6 | -0.3 | |
| 3153 | Karan Kolappa | F | 6-3 | 0 | Other newcomer | 8 | -1.7 | -0.3 | |
| 3241 | Bailey Nunn | G | 6-0 | 3 | Returning | Cal State Fullerton | 17 | -1.2 | -0.5 |
| 3479 | Matthew Quinlan | G | 6-0 | 1 | Returning | Cal State Fullerton | 7 | -2.1 | -0.4 |
| 3527 | Cam Smith | F | 6-7 | 0 | Other newcomer | 9 | -1.9 | -0.4 | |
| 3705 | Malcolm Bell | G | 1 | Other newcomer | 9 | -2.1 | -0.5 | ||
| 3835 | Ben Winker | G | 6-10 | 1 | Returning | Cal State Fullerton | 8 | -2.3 | -0.5 |
| 5119 | Davis White | G | 6-5 | 1 | Returning | Cal State Fullerton | 12 | -4.9 | -1.4 |
| 5122 | Kendrick De Luna | F | 6-10 | 3 | Returning | Cal State Fullerton | 15 | -4.4 | -1.6 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Nov 03 | at |  San Diego State #81 | -15.4 | 11% | |
| Sat Nov 07 | at |  South Dakota #322 | -3.0 | 41% | |
| Wed Nov 18 | at |  UCLA #28 | -21.0 | 5% | |
| Sun Nov 22 | at |  Portland State #186 | -8.7 | 24% | |
| Sat Nov 28 | vs |  Weber State #233 | +5.5 | 67% | |
| Thu Dec 03 | vs |  Sacramento State #199 | conf | +0.9 | 53% |
| Sat Dec 05 | vs |  Long Beach State #278 | conf | +3.6 | 61% |
| Thu Dec 10 | at |  Idaho State #261 | -4.9 | 35% | |
| Sat Dec 12 | at |  BYU #23 | -25.2 | 2% | |
| Sun Dec 20 | vs |  Utah Tech #275 | +6.8 | 71% | |
| Thu Dec 31 | vs |  UC San Diego #77 | conf | -6.3 | 31% |
| Sat Jan 02 | vs |  UC Irvine #105 | conf | -3.6 | 39% |
| Thu Jan 07 | at |  UC Santa Barbara #103 | conf | -8.2 | 25% |
| Sat Jan 09 | at |  Cal Poly #223 | conf | -3.2 | 40% |
| Thu Jan 14 | vs |  Cal State Bakersfield #328 | conf | +6.2 | 69% |
| Sat Jan 16 | vs |  Cal State Northridge #227 | conf | +1.8 | 56% |
| Thu Jan 21 | at | UC Irvine #105 | conf | -8.4 | 25% |
| Sat Jan 23 | at | UC San Diego #77 | conf | -10.6 | 20% |
| Thu Jan 28 | at |  UC Riverside #252 | conf | -2.5 | 42% |
| Sat Jan 30 | at |  California Baptist #157 | conf | -5.5 | 33% |
| Thu Feb 04 | vs | Cal Poly #223 | conf | +1.6 | 55% |
| Sat Feb 06 | vs | UC Santa Barbara #103 | conf | -3.6 | 39% |
| Thu Feb 11 | at | Cal State Northridge #227 | conf | -3.2 | 40% |
| Sat Feb 13 | at | Cal State Bakersfield #328 | conf | -0.1 | 50% |
| Thu Feb 18 | vs |  Utah Valley #112 | conf | -3.1 | 40% |
| Sat Feb 20 | at | Long Beach State #278 | conf | -0.5 | 48% |
| Thu Feb 25 | at | Sacramento State #199 | conf | -4.1 | 37% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at | Utah Valley #112 | conf | -9.1 | 23% |
| Thu Mar 04 | vs | California Baptist #157 | conf | -0.9 | 47% |
| Sat Mar 06 | vs | UC Riverside #252 | conf | +2.5 | 58% |
Projected margin is from Cal State Fullerton's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.