Teams › Big West · Compare Long Beach State with another team
Long Beach State
Long Beach State returns 76% of last season's minutes and rates #303 on offense and #233 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -12.5 to +1.8.
Why we have them here
Long Beach State's preseason projection of -5.3 (No. 278 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -2.8, about the -3.1 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 282 at the end of 2025-26) adds -1.4, about its neighbours' -1.0; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -1.4. It returns 76% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (68%). The projection leans most on Rob Diaz III (+1.9), Jack Payne (+1.0) and Leopold Levillain (-0.2); the newcomer who matters most is Jack Payne, a transfer from Idaho, at +1.0. Its 80% range, -12.5 to +1.8, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 69% · Transfer 21% · Freshman 3% · Other newcomer 7%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 479 | Rob Diaz III | G | 6-2 | 1 | Returning | Long Beach State | 23 | +3.4 | +1.9 |
| 859 | Jack Payne | G | 6-6 | 3 | Transfer | Idaho | 23 | +1.8 | +1.0 |
| 2180 | Leopold Levillain | F | 6-9 | 1 | Returning | Long Beach State | 18 | -0.5 | -0.2 |
| 2551 | Noah Amenhauser | C | 7-2 | 3 | Transfer | Oregon State | 12 | -1.0 | -0.3 |
| 2654 | Isaiah Lewis | G | 6-3 | 2 | Returning | Long Beach State | 21 | -0.8 | -0.4 |
| 2760 | Christian Jones | G | 6-4 | 1 | Returning | Long Beach State | 10 | -1.2 | -0.3 |
| 2835 | Max VanLaningham | F | 6-7 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 6 | -1.7 | -0.2 |
| 3274 | Grant Gondrezick II | F | 6-0 | 2 | Other newcomer | 7 | -1.9 | -0.3 | |
| 3283 | Jayden Alexander | F | 6-1 | 0 | Other newcomer | 7 | -2.0 | -0.3 | |
| 3637 | Derrick Michael Xzavierro | F | 6-10 | 3 | Returning | Long Beach State | 8 | -2.1 | -0.4 |
| 3885 | Immanuel Lewis | G | 6-3 | 2 | Returning | Long Beach State | 6 | -2.6 | -0.4 |
| 4180 | JJ Chaikovsky | F | 6-7 | 3 | Returning | Long Beach State | 7 | -2.9 | -0.5 |
| 4253 | Kaleb Smith | F | 6-10 | 3 | Transfer | Grand Canyon | 7 | -3.0 | -0.6 |
| 4803 | Shaquil Bender | G | 6-2 | 3 | Returning | Long Beach State | 19 | -2.7 | -1.3 |
| 5046 | Dallas Washington | F | 6-10 | 1 | Returning | Long Beach State | 8 | -5.1 | -1.1 |
| 5203 | Cole Farrell | G | 6-5 | 3 | Returning | Long Beach State | 16 | -5.2 | -2.1 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | at |  Utah #72 | -17.4 | 8% | |
| Sat Nov 07 | at |  Montana State #138 | -10.7 | 19% | |
| Wed Nov 11 | vs |  Pacific #175 | +1.5 | 55% | |
| Mon Nov 16 | at |  UCLA #28 | -21.2 | 4% | |
| Mon Nov 23 | at |  Florida International #143 | -11.0 | 19% | |
| Tue Nov 24 | N |  Arkansas State #134 | -5.5 | 33% | |
| Wed Nov 25 | N |  Southern Utah #292 | +0.7 | 52% | |
| Thu Dec 03 | vs |  Utah Valley #112 | conf | -4.6 | 36% |
| Sat Dec 05 | at |  Cal State Fullerton #236 | conf | -3.6 | 39% |
| Tue Dec 08 | at |  San José State #187 | -8.2 | 25% | |
| Thu Dec 10 | at |  Illinois State #108 | -12.8 | 15% | |
| Tue Dec 22 | vs |  Portland #339 | +8.1 | 74% | |
| Thu Dec 31 | vs |  UC Irvine #105 | conf | -5.1 | 34% |
| Sat Jan 02 | vs |  UC San Diego #77 | conf | -7.6 | 27% |
| Thu Jan 07 | at |  Cal Poly #223 | conf | -4.4 | 36% |
| Sat Jan 09 | at |  UC Santa Barbara #103 | conf | -9.1 | 23% |
| Thu Jan 14 | vs |  Cal State Northridge #227 | conf | +0.0 | 50% |
| Sat Jan 16 | vs |  Cal State Bakersfield #328 | conf | +4.2 | 63% |
| Thu Jan 21 | at | UC San Diego #77 | conf | -11.3 | 18% |
| Sat Jan 23 | at | UC Irvine #105 | conf | -9.3 | 23% |
| Thu Jan 28 | at |  California Baptist #157 | conf | -6.5 | 30% |
| Sat Jan 30 | at |  UC Riverside #252 | conf | -3.7 | 38% |
| Thu Feb 04 | vs | UC Santa Barbara #103 | conf | -5.0 | 34% |
| Sat Feb 06 | vs | Cal Poly #223 | conf | -0.1 | 50% |
| Thu Feb 11 | at | Cal State Bakersfield #328 | conf | -1.4 | 45% |
| Sat Feb 13 | at | Cal State Northridge #227 | conf | -4.4 | 36% |
| Thu Feb 18 | vs |  Sacramento State #199 | conf | -0.8 | 47% |
| Sat Feb 20 | vs | Cal State Fullerton #236 | conf | +0.5 | 52% |
| Thu Feb 25 | at | Utah Valley #112 | conf | -9.9 | 21% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at | Sacramento State #199 | conf | -5.3 | 34% |
| Thu Mar 04 | vs | UC Riverside #252 | conf | +0.8 | 53% |
| Sat Mar 06 | vs | California Baptist #157 | conf | -2.4 | 42% |
Projected margin is from Long Beach State's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.