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Illinois State
Illinois State returns 47% of last season's minutes and rates #120 on offense and #110 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -3.3 to +11.4.
Why we have them here
Illinois State's preseason projection of +4.0 (No. 108 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +1.7, about the +2.2 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 73 at the end of 2025-26) adds +1.4, more than its neighbours' +0.5; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +0.7. It returns 47% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (64%). The projection leans most on Chase Walker (+5.6), Mason Klabo (+1.7) and Johnny Kinziger (+1.6); the newcomer who matters most is Isaac Ericksen, a newcomer from outside Division I, at -0.2. Its 80% range, -3.3 to +11.4, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 40% · Transfer 37% · Freshman 5% · Other newcomer 11%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Chase Walker | F | 6-9 | 3 | Returning | Illinois State | 25 | +9.0 | +5.6 |
| 512 | Mason Klabo | G | 6-2 | 1 | Returning | Illinois State | 19 | +3.6 | +1.7 |
| 662 | Johnny Kinziger | G | 5-11 | 3 | Returning | Illinois State | 29 | +2.3 | +1.6 |
| 2562 | Isaac Ericksen | F | 6-8 | 0 | Other newcomer | 8 | -1.2 | -0.2 | |
| 2619 | Malik Moore | G | 1 | Other newcomer | 7 | -1.3 | -0.2 | ||
| 2687 | Nick Allen | F | 6-10 | 0 | Other newcomer | 7 | -1.3 | -0.2 | |
| 2780 | Louie Semona | F | 6-8 | 3 | Transfer | Western Kentucky | 10 | -1.2 | -0.3 |
| 3096 | Ty Blake | G | 6-4 | 3 | Returning | Illinois State | 7 | -1.7 | -0.3 |
| 3131 | Jordan Williams | F | 6-6 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 10 | -1.5 | -0.4 |
| 3582 | Zaxton King | G | 6-3 | 2 | Transfer | Missouri State | 22 | -1.2 | -0.7 |
| 4883 | Demarion Burch | G | 6-4 | 3 | Transfer | Bradley | 18 | -2.9 | -1.3 |
| 4919 | Deng Garang | G | 6-6 | 2 | Transfer | Le Moyne | 23 | -2.7 | -1.5 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | at |  Saint Mary's #60 | -10.1 | 20% | |
| Mon Nov 09 | at |  Purdue #38 | -12.2 | 16% | |
| Fri Nov 13 | at |  North Dakota State #225 | -0.6 | 48% | |
| Tue Nov 17 | vs |  Bellarmine #305 | +13.3 | 86% | |
| Mon Nov 23 | N |  Santa Clara #63 | -4.0 | 37% | |
| Tue Nov 24 | N |  Tulsa #82 | -2.6 | 42% | |
| Wed Dec 02 | at |  Eastern Illinois #324 | +3.1 | 60% | |
| Sat Dec 05 | at |  Chicago State #337 | +3.8 | 62% | |
| Thu Dec 10 | vs |  Long Beach State #278 | +12.8 | 85% | |
| Sun Dec 13 | vs | North Dakota State #225 | +10.8 | 81% | |
| Thu Dec 17 | at |  Murray State #117 | conf | -1.6 | 45% |
| Mon Dec 21 | vs |  Belmont #94 | conf | +1.8 | 56% |
| Tue Dec 29 | at |  Evansville #317 | conf | +4.9 | 66% |
| Sat Jan 02 | vs |  Indiana State #116 | conf | +3.8 | 62% |
| Fri Jan 08 | at | Belmont #94 | conf | -3.6 | 38% |
| Tue Jan 12 | at |  Northern Iowa #88 | conf | -4.2 | 37% |
| Sat Jan 16 | vs |  Valparaiso #172 | conf | +6.1 | 69% |
| Mon Jan 18 | vs |  Drake #104 | conf | +3.0 | 60% |
| Sun Jan 24 | at |  Bradley #194 | conf | +0.6 | 52% |
| Wed Jan 27 | vs |  Southern Illinois #206 | conf | +7.4 | 73% |
| Sat Jan 30 | at |  UIC #120 | conf | -1.2 | 46% |
| Wed Feb 03 | vs | Northern Iowa #88 | conf | +1.3 | 54% |
| Sat Feb 06 | at | Indiana State #116 | conf | -2.6 | 42% |
| Tue Feb 09 | at | Valparaiso #172 | conf | +0.5 | 52% |
| Fri Feb 12 | vs | Murray State #117 | conf | +4.0 | 63% |
| Mon Feb 15 | vs | UIC #120 | conf | +4.0 | 63% |
| Thu Feb 18 | at | Southern Illinois #206 | conf | +1.8 | 56% |
| Sun Feb 21 | vs | Evansville #317 | conf | +11.2 | 82% |
| Wed Feb 24 | at | Drake #104 | conf | -2.3 | 42% |
| Sat Feb 27 | vs | Bradley #194 | conf | +7.1 | 72% |
Projected margin is from Illinois State's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.