Roster Math

Teams › American · Compare Tulsa with another team

Tulsa

Tulsa returns 49% of last season's minutes and rates #60 on offense and #114 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +0.7 to +15.0.

+7.9
Rating · #82 of 365
+6.0
Offense · #60
+1.8
Defense · #114
+0.7 to +15.0
80% range
3%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
26-12
Projected record · 20 to 32 wins
11-7
Projected in American · 8 to 15 wins

Why we have them here

Tulsa's preseason projection of +7.9 (No. 82 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +6.2, more than the +4.4 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 50 at the end of 2025-26) adds +2.4, more than its neighbours' +1.3; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -1.1. It returns 49% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (41%). The projection leans most on David Green (+3.6), Miles Barnstable (+3.2) and Jeremiah Johnson (+1.8); the newcomer who matters most is Jeremiah Johnson, a transfer from Campbell, at +1.8. Its 80% range, +0.7 to +15.0, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 48% · Transfer 48% · Freshman 2% · Other newcomer 2%

David Green+3.6
Miles Barnstable+3.2
Jeremiah Johnson+1.8
Jaylen Lawal+1.7
Tyler Behrend+1.3
Mike Williams+0.7
Kaleb Banks+0.5
Myles Rigsby+0.4
Leon Sifferlin+0.1
KJ Martin Jr.+0.0
Carter Benton+0.0
Aleksa Dimitrijevic-0.1
Cal Conroy-0.1
Doryan Onwuchekwa-0.1
Denton Forsythe-0.1
Chris Loofe-0.2
Macon Emory-0.3
Brent Moss-0.3
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
116David GreenF6-73ReturningTulsa20+7.1+3.6
198Miles BarnstableG6-22ReturningTulsa24+5.3+3.2
355Jaylen LawalG6-31ReturningTulsa11+6.1+1.7
496Jeremiah JohnsonG6-42TransferCampbell22+3.4+1.8
627Tyler BehrendF6-102ReturningTulsa16+3.2+1.3
923Mike WilliamsG6-33TransferSeton Hall13+2.1+0.7
1009Kaleb BanksF6-84TransferDePaul10+2.0+0.5
1132Myles RigsbyG6-63ReturningTulsa11+1.3+0.4
1467Leon SifferlinG6-61ReturningTulsa4+0.6+0.1
1562KJ Martin Jr.F6-81ReturningTulsa6+0.2+0.0
1845Carter BentonF6-42Other newcomer2-0.7+0.0
2082Aleksa DimitrijevicF7-00Other newcomer2-1.2-0.1
2145Chris LoofeF6-113TransferMiddle Tennessee14-0.5-0.2
2162Cal ConroyG6-22ReturningTulsa3-1.3-0.1
2189Macon EmoryF6-82TransferDelaware22-0.5-0.3
2360Brent MossG6-61TransferUTSA15-0.7-0.3
2380Denton ForsytheG6-10FreshmanHigh school4-1.3-0.1
2749Doryan OnwuchekwaC6-112ReturningTulsa2-2.7-0.1

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Tue Nov 03vsIncarnate Word #308+16.090%
Thu Nov 05vsNorthern Illinois #333+17.893%
Wed Nov 11vsOral Roberts #323+17.592%
Sun Nov 15vsTexas Southern #331+18.093%
Mon Nov 16vsWestern Kentucky #160+11.382%
Fri Nov 20vsMississippi State #78+5.968%
Sun Nov 22NStephen F. Austin #161+5.266%
Mon Nov 23NOregon State #93+0.953%
Tue Nov 24NIllinois State #108+2.658%
Fri Nov 27NCentral Michigan #259+8.676%
Sat Nov 28NBowling Green #266+9.177%
Sun Nov 29vsIU Indianapolis #279+16.591%
Sun Dec 06atMissouri State #201+1.755%
Wed Dec 09vsSMU #53+3.260%
Sat Dec 12vsFlorida A&M #336+18.193%
Sun Dec 13vsUT Martin #271+14.488%
Tue Dec 15vsJackson State #355+21.196%
Sat Dec 19NUtah State #29-5.333%
Sun Dec 20NMiddle Tennessee #127+3.661%
Mon Dec 21NSan Francisco #189+6.169%
Wed Dec 30vsSouth Florida #83conf+2.959%
Sun Jan 03vsFlorida Atlantic #122conf+6.470%
Thu Jan 07atUTSA #284conf+7.974%
Thu Jan 14vsEast Carolina #182conf+8.976%
Sun Jan 17atSouth Florida #83conf-3.040%
Wed Jan 20atFlorida Atlantic #122conf+0.351%
Sat Jan 23vsWichita State #62conf+1.354%
Thu Jan 28atTemple #149conf+2.658%
Sun Jan 31atNorth Texas #135conf+1.956%
Thu Feb 04vsUAB #158conf+8.074%
Sun Feb 07vsTulane #250conf+10.981%
Thu Feb 11atRice #262conf+6.670%
Sun Feb 14vsNorth Texas #135conf+6.670%
Sun Feb 21vsUTSA #284conf+12.484%
Thu Feb 25atMemphis #100conf-1.346%
Sun Feb 28atUAB #158conf+3.260%
Wed Mar 03vsCharlotte #131conf+6.470%
Sat Mar 06atWichita State #62conf-3.937%

Projected margin is from Tulsa's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.