Roster Math

Teams › American · Compare Charlotte with another team

Charlotte

Charlotte returns 46% of last season's minutes and rates #93 on offense and #240 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -4.8 to +9.3.

+2.2
Rating · #131 of 365
+3.7
Offense · #93
-1.4
Defense · #240
-4.8 to +9.3
80% range
<1%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
16-15
Projected record · 11 to 22 wins
9-9
Projected in American · 5 to 13 wins

Why we have them here

Charlotte's preseason projection of +2.2 (No. 131 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +2.2, more than the +1.4 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 236 at the end of 2025-26) adds -0.4, about its neighbours' +0.3; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +0.2. It returns 46% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (55%). The projection leans most on Dezayne Mingo (+3.4), Jizzle James (+1.7) and Keyshuan Tillery (+0.5); the newcomer who matters most is Jizzle James, a transfer from Cincinnati, at +1.7. Its 80% range, -4.8 to +9.3, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 43% · Transfer 52% · Freshman 3% · Other newcomer 2%

Dezayne Mingo+3.4
Jizzle James+1.7
Keyshuan Tillery+0.5
Damoni Harrison+0.3
Dylan Grant+0.3
Dorian Finister+0.2
Raul Villar+0.1
Jayden Fort+0.0
Jordi Rodriguez-0.1
Arden Conyers-0.1
Andrew Bailey-0.2
Major Freeman-0.2
Peyton Marshall-0.2
Tyler McKinley-0.2
Lance Barnes-0.2
Frank Oguche-0.3
Jarne Elouna Eyenga-0.7
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
158Dezayne MingoG6-42ReturningCharlotte23+6.0+3.4
543Jizzle JamesG6-33TransferCincinnati22+3.1+1.7
1025Keyshuan TilleryG6-01TransferCincinnati10+1.9+0.5
1223Damoni HarrisonG6-42ReturningCharlotte15+0.9+0.3
1255Dylan GrantF6-82TransferRutgers17+0.7+0.3
1376Dorian FinisterG6-54TransferLouisiana22+0.4+0.2
1536Raul VillarG6-31ReturningCharlotte10+0.2+0.1
1575Jayden FortF6-91TransferGeorgetown11+0.1+0.0
1931Arden ConyersF6-72ReturningCharlotte14-0.3-0.1
2119Jordi RodriguezG6-61TransferCincinnati6-0.8-0.1
2185Major FreemanG6-32ReturningCharlotte12-0.6-0.2
2400Peyton MarshallC7-02TransferGeorgia Tech7-1.1-0.2
2402Tyler McKinleyF6-91TransferCincinnati8-1.0-0.2
2957Lance BarnesG6-30FreshmanHigh school5-1.9-0.2
3084Andrew BaileyF6-63ReturningCharlotte2-3.0-0.2
3093Frank OgucheF6-80Other newcomer5-2.1-0.3
4391Jarne Elouna EyengaF6-101ReturningCharlotte11-2.7-0.7

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02atIndiana State #116-6.829%
Thu Nov 05vsGeorgia State #260+9.879%
Mon Nov 09atSeton Hall #106-6.829%
Fri Nov 13vsApp State #229+8.275%
Tue Nov 17atDavidson #132-5.134%
Mon Nov 23NFlorida Gulf Coast #299+5.968%
Wed Nov 25NNorthern Iowa #88-2.841%
Sun Nov 29vsWestern Carolina #152+6.370%
Wed Dec 02vsCharleston #141+5.868%
Sun Dec 06vsNorth Alabama #332+12.485%
Tue Dec 15vsIona #282+10.981%
Fri Dec 18atUIC #120-5.333%
Tue Dec 22vsNorth Carolina A&T #285+10.881%
Thu Dec 31atFlorida Atlantic #122conf-3.539%
Sun Jan 03vsWichita State #62conf-2.741%
Thu Jan 07atSouth Florida #83conf-6.929%
Sun Jan 10vsTemple #149conf+3.060%
Wed Jan 13vsUTSA #284conf+7.774%
Sun Jan 17atNorth Texas #135conf-1.944%
Wed Jan 20vsMemphis #100conf+0.451%
Sat Jan 23atTulane #250conf+1.354%
Tue Jan 26vsUAB #158conf+3.561%
Sun Jan 31atEast Carolina #182conf-0.150%
Sun Feb 07vsSouth Florida #83conf-1.545%
Thu Feb 11atMemphis #100conf-5.134%
Sun Feb 14atUAB #158conf-0.847%
Wed Feb 17vsFlorida Atlantic #122conf+2.056%
Sat Feb 20vsRice #262conf+6.771%
Sun Feb 28atWichita State #62conf-7.427%
Wed Mar 03atTulsa #82conf-6.430%
Sun Mar 07vsEast Carolina #182conf+4.464%

Projected margin is from Charlotte's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.