Roster Math

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Indiana State

Indiana State returns 66% of last season's minutes and rates #109 on offense and #159 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -3.9 to +10.6.

+3.3
Rating · #116 of 365
+2.8
Offense · #109
+0.5
Defense · #159
-3.9 to +10.6
80% range
<1%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
15-13
Projected record · 10 to 21 wins
11-9
Projected in MVC · 7 to 15 wins

Why we have them here

Indiana State's preseason projection of +3.3 (No. 116 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +1.5, about the +2.0 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 226 at the end of 2025-26) adds -0.6, less than its neighbours' +0.5; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +2.0. It returns 66% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (61%). The projection leans most on Ian Scott (+3.2), Enel St. Bernard (+1.5) and Meechie White (+1.4); the newcomer who matters most is Meechie White, a transfer from Eastern Illinois, at +1.4. Its 80% range, -3.9 to +10.6, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 64% · Transfer 25% · Freshman 6% · Other newcomer 5%

Ian Scott+3.2
Enel St. Bernard+1.5
Meechie White+1.4
Xavier Hall+1.0
Bruno Alocen+0.1
Chance Puryear-0.2
Aleksa Vlajic-0.2
Caden Huttenlocker-0.2
Martin Kaupanger-0.2
Jackson Cooper-0.2
Jayan Walker-0.3
EJ Hazelett-0.3
Sterling Young-0.3
Kade Speckman-0.3
Sivert Waerstad Nordheim-0.3
Cooper Bean-0.3
Jo Van Buggenhout-0.6
Karmani Gregory-0.9
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
210Ian ScottF6-71ReturningIndiana State25+5.1+3.2
565Enel St. BernardF6-61ReturningIndiana State18+3.4+1.5
680Meechie WhiteG6-11TransferEastern Illinois23+2.5+1.4
904Xavier HallG6-03ReturningIndiana State23+1.7+1.0
1466Bruno AlocenG6-62ReturningIndiana State16+0.3+0.1
2316Sterling YoungG6-13ReturningIndiana State17-0.6-0.3
2552Chance PuryearF6-71TransferSMU3-1.8-0.2
2744EJ HazelettF6-60FreshmanHigh school8-1.4-0.3
2773Aleksa VlajicF6-101TransferBuffalo3-2.2-0.2
2835Jackson CooperF1Other newcomer5-1.9-0.2
2835Martin KaupangerF6-50Other newcomer5-1.9-0.2
2967Jayan WalkerG6-62ReturningIndiana State5-1.9-0.3
3079Caden HuttenlockerG6-21ReturningIndiana State3-2.6-0.2
3135Kade SpeckmanF6-80FreshmanHigh school5-2.1-0.3
3537Sivert Waerstad NordheimG6-61ReturningIndiana State4-2.9-0.3
3559Cooper BeanG6-32ReturningIndiana State4-2.8-0.3
3859Jo Van BuggenhoutG6-21ReturningIndiana State14-1.8-0.6
4155Karmani GregoryG6-12TransferSouth Carolina Upstate20-1.7-0.9

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02vsCharlotte #131+6.871%
Fri Nov 06atBall State #153-3.339%
Wed Nov 11vsMilwaukee #242+11.282%
Fri Nov 20NStephen F. Austin #161+2.057%
Wed Dec 02vsSIU Edwardsville #234+10.781%
Sun Dec 06vsSouthern Indiana #315+14.388%
Sat Dec 12atOregon #58-11.019%
Tue Dec 15atUIC #120conf-1.744%
Sat Dec 19vsMurray State #117conf+3.360%
Tue Dec 22atKansas #10-21.14%
Tue Dec 29vsDrake #104conf+2.458%
Sat Jan 02atIllinois State #108conf-3.838%
Tue Jan 05atEvansville #317conf+4.665%
Sat Jan 09vsNorthern Iowa #88conf+0.652%
Tue Jan 12vsBradley #194conf+6.670%
Sat Jan 16atMurray State #117conf-2.243%
Mon Jan 18atBelmont #94conf-4.336%
Thu Jan 21vsSouthern Illinois #206conf+7.071%
Wed Jan 27atValparaiso #172conf+0.150%
Sat Jan 30vsEvansville #317conf+11.081%
Wed Feb 03atSouthern Illinois #206conf+1.354%
Sat Feb 06vsIllinois State #108conf+2.658%
Tue Feb 09atNorthern Iowa #88conf-4.934%
Sat Feb 13vsValparaiso #172conf+5.667%
Mon Feb 15vsBelmont #94conf+1.053%
Thu Feb 18atDrake #104conf-3.041%
Sun Feb 21vsUIC #120conf+3.461%
Wed Feb 24atBradley #194conf+0.150%

Projected margin is from Indiana State's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.