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Murray State
Murray State returns 38% of last season's minutes and rates #118 on offense and #148 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -4.2 to +10.6.
Why we have them here
Murray State's preseason projection of +3.2 (No. 117 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +1.6, about the +1.8 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 113 at the end of 2025-26) adds +1.0, about its neighbours' +0.5; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +0.3. It returns 38% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (61%). The projection leans most on Roman Domon (+2.8), Christian Jones (+1.4) and Brigham Rogers (+0.9); the newcomer who matters most is Christian Jones, a transfer from George Washington, at +1.4. Its 80% range, -4.2 to +10.6, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 30% · Transfer 40% · Freshman 5% · Other newcomer 8%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 277 | Roman Domon | G | 6-9 | 1 | Returning | Murray State | 25 | +4.5 | +2.8 |
| 713 | Christian Jones | G | 6-4 | 2 | Transfer | George Washington | 25 | +2.2 | +1.4 |
| 886 | Kaden Magwood | G | 6-2 | 1 | Transfer | Auburn | 14 | +2.2 | +0.8 |
| 893 | Brigham Rogers | F | 6-9 | 3 | Transfer | Belmont | 19 | +1.8 | +0.9 |
| 1412 | Brayden Shorter | G | 6-5 | 1 | Returning | Murray State | 17 | +0.4 | +0.2 |
| 1569 | Mathis Courbon | G | 6-6 | 1 | Returning | Murray State | 18 | +0.1 | +0.1 |
| 2644 | Dillon Butler | F | 6-3 | 0 | Other newcomer | 8 | -1.2 | -0.3 | |
| 2984 | Lachlan Crate | F | 6-8 | 0 | Other newcomer | 8 | -1.5 | -0.3 | |
| 3502 | Navon Shabazz | G | 6-3 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 10 | -1.7 | -0.5 |
| 3943 | Shon Tupuola | C | 6-10 | 3 | Transfer | Valparaiso | 21 | -1.5 | -0.8 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | N |  Tennessee State #154 | +1.9 | 56% | |
| Sat Nov 07 | vs |  Northwestern State #277 | +11.2 | 82% | |
| Tue Nov 10 | vs |  Alcorn State #358 | +17.7 | 92% | |
| Fri Nov 13 | vs |  Texas Southern #331 | +14.5 | 88% | |
| Tue Nov 17 | N |  Hofstra #124 | +0.3 | 51% | |
| Thu Nov 19 | N |  NC State #36 | -7.7 | 27% | |
| Mon Nov 30 | vs |  Washington State #162 | +7.5 | 73% | |
| Wed Dec 02 | vs |  Chicago State #337 | +14.4 | 88% | |
| Sun Dec 06 | N |  Georgia Tech #140 | +1.3 | 54% | |
| Wed Dec 09 | vs |  Arkansas-Pine Bluff #349 | +16.8 | 91% | |
| Sat Dec 12 | vs |  Santa Clara #63 | +0.7 | 52% | |
| Thu Dec 17 | vs |  Illinois State #108 | conf | +1.6 | 55% |
| Sat Dec 19 | at |  Indiana State #116 | conf | -3.3 | 40% |
| Tue Dec 29 | vs |  UIC #120 | conf | +2.4 | 58% |
| Fri Jan 01 | vs |  Drake #104 | conf | +1.3 | 54% |
| Mon Jan 04 | at |  Bradley #194 | conf | +0.1 | 50% |
| Sat Jan 09 | vs |  Evansville #317 | conf | +10.2 | 79% |
| Tue Jan 12 | at |  Southern Illinois #206 | conf | +1.3 | 54% |
| Sat Jan 16 | vs | Indiana State #116 | conf | +2.2 | 57% |
| Thu Jan 21 | at |  Northern Iowa #88 | conf | -5.0 | 34% |
| Sun Jan 24 | at | Drake #104 | conf | -3.1 | 40% |
| Wed Jan 27 | vs | Bradley #194 | conf | +5.7 | 67% |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs |  Valparaiso #172 | conf | +4.6 | 65% |
| Wed Feb 03 | at | UIC #120 | conf | -1.8 | 44% |
| Sat Feb 06 | vs |  Belmont #94 | conf | +0.0 | 50% |
| Tue Feb 09 | at | Evansville #317 | conf | +4.7 | 65% |
| Fri Feb 12 | at | Illinois State #108 | conf | -4.0 | 37% |
| Mon Feb 15 | vs | Southern Illinois #206 | conf | +6.0 | 68% |
| Sat Feb 20 | at | Belmont #94 | conf | -4.4 | 36% |
| Wed Feb 24 | vs | Northern Iowa #88 | conf | -0.4 | 49% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at | Valparaiso #172 | conf | +0.0 | 50% |
Projected margin is from Murray State's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.