Teams › Southland · Compare Northwestern State with another team
Northwestern State
Northwestern State returns 93% of last season's minutes and rates #295 on offense and #242 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -12.5 to +2.0.
Why we have them here
Northwestern State's preseason projection of -5.2 (No. 277 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -2.7, about the -3.0 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 281 at the end of 2025-26) adds -1.3, about its neighbours' -0.9; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -1.6. It returns 93% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (68%). The projection leans most on Willie Williams (+2.5), Chris Mubiru (+0.7) and Seth Ned (-0.3); the newcomer who matters most is Seth Ned, a newcomer from outside Division I, at -0.3. Its 80% range, -12.5 to +2.0, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 90% · Transfer 7% · Other newcomer 3%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 382 | Willie Williams | F | 6-6 | 2 | Returning | Northwestern State | 26 | +3.7 | +2.5 |
| 1037 | Chris Mubiru | G | 6-5 | 3 | Returning | Northwestern State | 24 | +1.2 | +0.7 |
| 3004 | Justin Redmond | G | 6-2 | 2 | Returning | Northwestern State | 17 | -1.1 | -0.4 |
| 3084 | Seth Ned | F | 5-10 | 0 | Other newcomer | 7 | -1.8 | -0.3 | |
| 3269 | Quentin Bolton | G | 6-6 | 3 | Returning | Northwestern State | 6 | -2.0 | -0.3 |
| 3618 | J.C. Riley Jr. | C | 6-10 | 3 | Returning | Northwestern State | 10 | -1.9 | -0.5 |
| 3623 | Omar Adegbola | G | 6-4 | 2 | Returning | Northwestern State | 12 | -1.7 | -0.5 |
| 4254 | Chip Brunt | G | 6-5 | 3 | Returning | Northwestern State | 11 | -2.5 | -0.7 |
| 4268 | Landyn Jumawan | G | 6-4 | 2 | Returning | Northwestern State | 17 | -2.0 | -0.9 |
| 4356 | Moustapha Loum | F | 6-10 | 1 | Returning | Northwestern State | 10 | -2.8 | -0.7 |
| 4408 | Kordrick Turner | F | 6-6 | 1 | Returning | Northwestern State | 12 | -2.6 | -0.8 |
| 4442 | Izzy Miles | G | 6-2 | 3 | Returning | Northwestern State | 21 | -2.0 | -1.0 |
| 4671 | Dionjahe Thomas | F | 6-8 | 4 | Transfer | Jackson State | 14 | -2.8 | -1.0 |
| 4993 | CJ Larry | G | 6-3 | 1 | Returning | Northwestern State | 14 | -3.7 | -1.3 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | at |  Baylor #37 | -19.8 | 5% | |
| Thu Nov 05 | at |  Mississippi State #78 | -14.8 | 11% | |
| Sat Nov 07 | at |  Murray State #117 | -11.2 | 18% | |
| Sat Nov 14 | at |  Little Rock #320 | -2.8 | 41% | |
| Fri Nov 20 | vs |  UT Arlington #211 | +3.4 | 61% | |
| Wed Nov 25 | vs |  West Florida #304 | +6.7 | 71% | |
| Sat Dec 05 | at |  Lamar #238 | conf | -3.5 | 39% |
| Tue Dec 08 | at |  Grand Canyon #59 | -16.2 | 9% | |
| Mon Dec 14 | at |  UT Martin #271 | -4.8 | 35% | |
| Sat Dec 19 | vs |  McNeese #80 | conf | -6.1 | 31% |
| Mon Dec 21 | vs |  SE Louisiana #286 | conf | +3.0 | 60% |
| Tue Dec 29 | at |  Stephen F. Austin #161 | conf | -5.5 | 33% |
| Sat Jan 02 | vs |  New Orleans #303 | conf | +3.8 | 62% |
| Mon Jan 04 | at |  Nicholls #267 | conf | -1.8 | 44% |
| Sat Jan 09 | at |  Texas A&M-Corpus Christi #145 | conf | -7.5 | 27% |
| Mon Jan 11 | at |  UT Rio Grande Valley #191 | conf | -4.5 | 36% |
| Sat Jan 16 | vs |  Incarnate Word #308 | conf | +3.9 | 62% |
| Mon Jan 18 | vs |  Houston Christian #273 | conf | +2.4 | 58% |
| Sat Jan 23 | vs | Nicholls #267 | conf | +2.4 | 58% |
| Tue Jan 26 | at | New Orleans #303 | conf | -0.4 | 49% |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs |  East Texas A&M #319 | conf | +4.7 | 65% |
| Mon Feb 01 | vs | Stephen F. Austin #161 | conf | -1.1 | 46% |
| Sat Feb 06 | at | East Texas A&M #319 | conf | -0.3 | 49% |
| Mon Feb 08 | vs | Lamar #238 | conf | +1.4 | 55% |
| Sat Feb 13 | at | SE Louisiana #286 | conf | -1.4 | 45% |
| Mon Feb 15 | at | McNeese #80 | conf | -11.8 | 17% |
| Sat Feb 20 | at | Houston Christian #273 | conf | -1.8 | 44% |
| Mon Feb 22 | at | Incarnate Word #308 | conf | -0.6 | 48% |
| Sat Feb 27 | vs | Texas A&M-Corpus Christi #145 | conf | -1.7 | 45% |
| Mon Mar 01 | vs | UT Rio Grande Valley #191 | conf | -0.1 | 50% |
Projected margin is from Northwestern State's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.