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Nicholls
Nicholls returns 65% of last season's minutes and rates #302 on offense and #217 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -12.4 to +2.5.
Why we have them here
Nicholls's preseason projection of -4.9 (No. 267 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -4.1, less than the -2.8 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 219 at the end of 2025-26) adds -0.5, about its neighbours' -0.8; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -0.6. It returns 65% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (72%). The projection leans most on Jaylen Searles (+0.9), Jalik Dunkley (+0.7) and Chaydon Stone (-0.4); the newcomer who matters most is Chaydon Stone, a newcomer from outside Division I, at -0.4. Its 80% range, -12.4 to +2.5, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 60% · Transfer 23% · Other newcomer 4%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 978 | Jaylen Searles | G | 6-8 | 3 | Returning | Nicholls | 26 | +1.3 | +0.9 |
| 1063 | Jalik Dunkley | G | 6-7 | 1 | Returning | Nicholls | 29 | +1.0 | +0.7 |
| 3388 | Chaydon Stone | F | 6-4 | 2 | Other newcomer | 9 | -1.8 | -0.4 | |
| 4008 | Hunter Carter | G | 6-5 | 1 | Transfer | Hawai'i | 10 | -2.2 | -0.6 |
| 4035 | Jordan Matthews | G | 6-3 | 1 | Returning | Nicholls | 8 | -2.5 | -0.5 |
| 4155 | Domanic Betancourt | F | 6-10 | 3 | Returning | Nicholls | 11 | -2.3 | -0.7 |
| 4229 | Arop Arop | F | 6-11 | 3 | Transfer | Memphis | 8 | -2.8 | -0.6 |
| 4313 | Kevin Pazmino | G | 6-4 | 2 | Returning | Nicholls | 12 | -2.5 | -0.7 |
| 4442 | Zaiden Cross | G | 6-7 | 1 | Returning | Nicholls | 15 | -2.3 | -0.9 |
| 4660 | Junior Sileu | F | 6-10 | 1 | Transfer | Western Michigan | 10 | -3.3 | -0.8 |
| 4764 | Tyonne Farrell | F | 6-6 | 2 | Transfer | Morehead State | 16 | -2.8 | -1.1 |
| 5184 | Jalin Rice | G | 6-3 | 3 | Returning | Nicholls | 19 | -4.5 | -2.1 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri Nov 06 | at |  UAB #158 | -9.1 | 23% | |
| Tue Nov 10 | at |  Tulane #250 | -6.6 | 30% | |
| Sat Nov 14 | vs |  Louisiana Tech #269 | +4.6 | 65% | |
| Tue Nov 17 | at |  Ole Miss #61 | -15.8 | 10% | |
| Sat Nov 21 | N |  Southern Miss #214 | -1.9 | 44% | |
| Sun Nov 22 | N |  Troy #155 | -4.0 | 38% | |
| Sun Nov 29 | at |  Texas State #183 | -8.9 | 24% | |
| Thu Dec 03 | vs |  UT Rio Grande Valley #191 | conf | -1.0 | 47% |
| Sat Dec 05 | vs |  Texas A&M-Corpus Christi #145 | conf | -2.6 | 42% |
| Thu Dec 10 | at |  Rice #262 | -5.3 | 33% | |
| Thu Dec 17 | at |  Houston Christian #273 | conf | -1.7 | 45% |
| Sat Dec 19 | at |  Incarnate Word #308 | conf | -0.4 | 49% |
| Sat Jan 02 | at |  East Texas A&M #319 | conf | +0.0 | 50% |
| Mon Jan 04 | vs |  Northwestern State #277 | conf | +1.8 | 56% |
| Sat Jan 09 | at |  New Orleans #303 | conf | -0.1 | 50% |
| Mon Jan 11 | vs |  McNeese #80 | conf | -7.3 | 28% |
| Sat Jan 16 | at |  Lamar #238 | conf | -3.4 | 39% |
| Mon Jan 18 | at |  Stephen F. Austin #161 | conf | -5.5 | 33% |
| Sat Jan 23 | at | Northwestern State #277 | conf | -2.4 | 42% |
| Mon Jan 25 | vs | East Texas A&M #319 | conf | +4.0 | 63% |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs | New Orleans #303 | conf | +3.0 | 60% |
| Mon Feb 01 | at |  SE Louisiana #286 | conf | -1.2 | 46% |
| Sat Feb 06 | at | Texas A&M-Corpus Christi #145 | conf | -7.6 | 27% |
| Mon Feb 08 | at | UT Rio Grande Valley #191 | conf | -4.5 | 36% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs | Incarnate Word #308 | conf | +3.2 | 60% |
| Mon Feb 15 | vs | Houston Christian #273 | conf | +1.7 | 56% |
| Sat Feb 20 | vs | Stephen F. Austin #161 | conf | -2.0 | 44% |
| Mon Feb 22 | vs | Lamar #238 | conf | +0.6 | 52% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at | McNeese #80 | conf | -12.0 | 17% |
| Mon Mar 01 | vs | SE Louisiana #286 | conf | +2.2 | 57% |
Projected margin is from Nicholls's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.