Teams › Southland · Compare Incarnate Word with another team
Incarnate Word
Incarnate Word returns 50% of last season's minutes and rates #271 on offense and #324 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -14.7 to +0.0.
Why we have them here
Incarnate Word's preseason projection of -7.3 (No. 308 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -4.3, about the -4.6 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 246 at the end of 2025-26) adds -0.5, more than its neighbours' -1.6; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -2.8. It returns 50% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (71%). The projection leans most on Davion Bailey (+1.7), Isaiah Kortas (-0.4) and Maximo Garcia-Plata (-0.6); the newcomer who matters most is Isaiah Kortas, a newcomer from outside Division I, at -0.4. Its 80% range, -14.7 to +0.0, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 45% · Transfer 8% · Other newcomer 11%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 642 | Davion Bailey | G | 6-4 | 3 | Returning | Incarnate Word | 31 | +2.3 | +1.7 |
| 3523 | Isaiah Kortas | F | 6-4 | 0 | Other newcomer | 9 | -1.9 | -0.4 | |
| 3873 | Maximo Garcia-Plata | F | 6-4 | 0 | Other newcomer | 12 | -1.9 | -0.6 | |
| 4035 | Drew Barbee | F | 6-5 | 2 | Returning | Incarnate Word | 11 | -2.2 | -0.6 |
| 4173 | Mihael Tomic | G | 1 | Returning | Incarnate Word | 16 | -2.0 | -0.8 | |
| 4230 | D'Arrae Goodwin | F | 6-6 | 1 | Transfer | San Diego | 16 | -2.0 | -0.8 |
| 4929 | Marcus Glover | F | 6-8 | 3 | Returning | Incarnate Word | 19 | -3.0 | -1.4 |
| 5184 | Esteban Mann | F | 6-7 | 1 | Returning | Incarnate Word | 14 | -5.2 | -1.8 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | at |  Oklahoma State #91 | -16.3 | 10% | |
| Tue Nov 03 | at |  Tulsa #82 | -16.0 | 10% | |
| Thu Nov 05 | vs |  Chicago State #337 | +6.4 | 70% | |
| Sun Nov 08 | at |  UTEP #237 | -7.3 | 28% | |
| Wed Nov 11 | at |  UC Davis #255 | -6.8 | 29% | |
| Wed Nov 18 | at |  Texas State #183 | -10.2 | 20% | |
| Wed Nov 25 | at |  Hawai'i #179 | -10.1 | 21% | |
| Sun Nov 29 | at |  Grand Canyon #59 | -17.7 | 7% | |
| Sat Dec 05 | at |  SE Louisiana #286 | conf | -2.7 | 41% |
| Mon Dec 07 | at |  McNeese #80 | conf | -13.2 | 14% |
| Wed Dec 09 | at |  Gonzaga #14 | -25.1 | 2% | |
| Tue Dec 15 | at |  Texas Tech #15 | -24.4 | 2% | |
| Sat Dec 19 | vs |  Nicholls #267 | conf | +0.4 | 51% |
| Mon Dec 21 | vs |  New Orleans #303 | conf | +1.8 | 56% |
| Mon Dec 28 | at |  Arizona #3 | -29.2 | <1% | |
| Sat Jan 02 | at |  Houston Christian #273 | conf | -3.2 | 40% |
| Mon Jan 04 | vs |  UT Rio Grande Valley #191 | conf | -2.1 | 43% |
| Sat Jan 09 | vs |  Lamar #238 | conf | -0.5 | 48% |
| Mon Jan 11 | vs |  Stephen F. Austin #161 | conf | -3.0 | 40% |
| Sat Jan 16 | at |  Northwestern State #277 | conf | -3.9 | 38% |
| Mon Jan 18 | at |  East Texas A&M #319 | conf | -1.7 | 45% |
| Sat Jan 23 | at |  Texas A&M-Corpus Christi #145 | conf | -8.9 | 23% |
| Tue Jan 26 | at | UT Rio Grande Valley #191 | conf | -5.9 | 32% |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs | Texas A&M-Corpus Christi #145 | conf | -3.6 | 38% |
| Mon Feb 01 | vs | Houston Christian #273 | conf | +0.6 | 52% |
| Sat Feb 06 | vs | McNeese #80 | conf | -8.1 | 25% |
| Mon Feb 08 | vs | SE Louisiana #286 | conf | +1.1 | 54% |
| Sat Feb 13 | at | Nicholls #267 | conf | -3.2 | 40% |
| Mon Feb 15 | at | New Orleans #303 | conf | -1.8 | 44% |
| Sat Feb 20 | vs | East Texas A&M #319 | conf | +2.7 | 59% |
| Mon Feb 22 | vs | Northwestern State #277 | conf | +0.6 | 52% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at | Lamar #238 | conf | -4.8 | 35% |
| Mon Mar 01 | at | Stephen F. Austin #161 | conf | -6.8 | 29% |
Projected margin is from Incarnate Word's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.