Teams › Mountain West · Compare UTEP with another team
UTEP
UTEP returns 56% of last season's minutes and rates #309 on offense and #150 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -10.9 to +3.8.
Why we have them here
UTEP's preseason projection of -3.5 (No. 237 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -1.6, more than the -2.4 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 308 at the end of 2025-26) adds -1.8, less than its neighbours' -0.6; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -0.4. It returns 56% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (65%). The projection leans most on Elijah Jones (+2.2), Jamal West Jr. (+1.5) and Augusto Cassiá (+0.4); the newcomer who matters most is Augusto Cassiá, a transfer from Ole Miss, at +0.4. Its 80% range, -10.9 to +3.8, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 56% · Transfer 24% · Freshman 10%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 440 | Elijah Jones | F | 6-8 | 3 | Returning | UTEP | 25 | +3.5 | +2.2 |
| 694 | Jamal West Jr. | F | 6-6 | 3 | Returning | UTEP | 27 | +2.2 | +1.5 |
| 1143 | Augusto Cassiá | F | 6-8 | 3 | Transfer | Ole Miss | 13 | +1.2 | +0.4 |
| 2481 | Donovan Criss | F | 6-5 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 10 | -1.0 | -0.3 |
| 2599 | Jace Whiting | G | 6-3 | 4 | Transfer | Weber State | 22 | -0.7 | -0.4 |
| 3073 | Isaiah Ward | F | 6-6 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 10 | -1.5 | -0.4 |
| 3517 | Mouhamed Mbaye | C | 6-10 | 1 | Returning | UTEP | 9 | -1.9 | -0.4 |
| 4207 | Jordan Hernandez | G | 5-11 | 1 | Returning | UTEP | 7 | -3.0 | -0.5 |
| 4413 | Tyreese Watson | G | 6-4 | 3 | Returning | UTEP | 18 | -2.1 | -0.9 |
| 4527 | Reid Cason | F | 6-10 | 2 | Transfer | East Carolina | 14 | -2.6 | -0.9 |
| 4865 | Cassius Brooks | G | 6-0 | 1 | Returning | UTEP | 13 | -3.4 | -1.1 |
| 5002 | Trey Horton III | G | 6-5 | 3 | Returning | UTEP | 13 | -3.9 | -1.3 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | N |  Northern Kentucky #270 | +1.1 | 53% | |
| Sun Nov 08 | vs |  Incarnate Word #308 | +7.3 | 72% | |
| Thu Nov 12 | vs |  New Mexico State #137 | +1.5 | 55% | |
| Sun Nov 15 | vs |  Florida A&M #336 | +9.1 | 77% | |
| Thu Nov 19 | at | New Mexico State #137 | -8.7 | 24% | |
| Tue Nov 24 | N |  Charleston #141 | -3.4 | 39% | |
| Tue Dec 01 | at |  Colorado #85 | -14.7 | 12% | |
| Sat Dec 05 | vs |  North Dakota #310 | +7.7 | 74% | |
| Sun Dec 20 | vs |  Howard #196 | +3.6 | 62% | |
| Sat Jan 02 | vs |  New Mexico #50 | conf | -8.8 | 24% |
| Tue Jan 05 | vs |  Wyoming #121 | conf | -2.3 | 42% |
| Sat Jan 09 | at |  Air Force #357 | conf | +5.4 | 67% |
| Tue Jan 12 | vs |  Nevada #66 | conf | -6.8 | 29% |
| Sat Jan 16 | at |  UNLV #139 | conf | -6.3 | 31% |
| Tue Jan 19 | at | Wyoming #121 | conf | -7.0 | 28% |
| Sat Jan 23 | vs |  UC Davis #255 | conf | +2.4 | 58% |
| Tue Jan 26 | at | Nevada #66 | conf | -11.8 | 17% |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs |  San José State #187 | conf | +0.2 | 51% |
| Sat Feb 06 | at |  Hawai'i #179 | conf | -4.5 | 36% |
| Tue Feb 09 | vs |  Grand Canyon #59 | conf | -7.4 | 27% |
| Sat Feb 13 | at | UC Davis #255 | conf | -1.2 | 46% |
| Tue Feb 16 | vs | UNLV #139 | conf | -1.5 | 45% |
| Sat Feb 20 | at | New Mexico #50 | conf | -13.8 | 13% |
| Tue Feb 23 | at | Grand Canyon #59 | conf | -12.3 | 16% |
| Sat Feb 27 | vs | Hawai'i #179 | conf | +0.0 | 50% |
| Tue Mar 02 | at | San José State #187 | conf | -3.7 | 38% |
| Sat Mar 06 | vs | Air Force #357 | conf | +8.5 | 76% |
Projected margin is from UTEP's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.