Teams › CUSA · Compare New Mexico State with another team
New Mexico State
New Mexico State returns 51% of last season's minutes and rates #147 on offense and #146 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -5.5 to +8.9.
Why we have them here
New Mexico State's preseason projection of +1.7 (No. 137 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +2.9, more than the +1.0 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 208 at the end of 2025-26) adds -0.4, about its neighbours' +0.1; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -1.1. It returns 51% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (50%). The projection leans most on Jemel Jones (+4.8), Julius Mims (+1.6) and Stephon Payne (+1.3); the newcomer who matters most is Stephon Payne, a transfer from Seton Hall, at +1.3. Its 80% range, -5.5 to +8.9, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 49% · Transfer 45% · Freshman 5% · Other newcomer 2%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | Jemel Jones | G | 6-4 | 2 | Returning | New Mexico State | 23 | +8.1 | +4.8 |
| 567 | Stephon Payne | F | 6-9 | 4 | Transfer | Seton Hall | 15 | +3.7 | +1.3 |
| 582 | Julius Mims | F | 6-9 | 3 | Returning | New Mexico State | 21 | +3.0 | +1.6 |
| 1207 | Chris Terrell | G | 6-0 | 1 | Returning | New Mexico State | 11 | +1.1 | +0.3 |
| 1302 | Jae'Coby Osborne | F | 6-6 | 2 | Returning | New Mexico State | 15 | +0.7 | +0.3 |
| 1882 | Gabe Warren | G | 6-6 | 3 | Transfer | Holy Cross | 20 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| 1920 | DJ Dudley | G | 6-3 | 1 | Transfer | Louisiana Tech | 19 | -0.3 | -0.1 |
| 2115 | Mark Lavrenov | F | 6-8 | 1 | Transfer | Sacramento State | 16 | -0.5 | -0.2 |
| 2524 | Omarr Smith | F | 6-4 | 0 | Other newcomer | 3 | -1.7 | -0.2 | |
| 2544 | Jachai Cantave | G | 6-1 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 5 | -1.5 | -0.2 |
| 2606 | Phoenix Woodson | F | 6-7 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 5 | -1.6 | -0.2 |
| 2684 | Gabe Pickens | G | 6-0 | 2 | Returning | New Mexico State | 13 | -1.0 | -0.3 |
| 2805 | Augustine Ekwe | C | 6-9 | 1 | Returning | New Mexico State | 6 | -1.6 | -0.2 |
| 2813 | Amarco Doyle | F | 6-7 | 1 | Returning | New Mexico State | 3 | -2.2 | -0.2 |
| 2830 | Christian Villegas | G | 6-2 | 3 | Returning | New Mexico State | 3 | -2.4 | -0.2 |
| 2920 | Teysean Eaglestaff | F | 6-7 | 1 | Returning | New Mexico State | 2 | -2.8 | -0.2 |
| 3435 | Jermaine Washington | G | 6-1 | 2 | Transfer | San José State | 20 | -1.2 | -0.6 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Nov 07 | at |  Gonzaga #14 | -19.5 | 6% | |
| Thu Nov 12 | at |  UTEP #237 | -1.5 | 45% | |
| Sun Nov 15 | N |  San Diego State #81 | -4.4 | 36% | |
| Thu Nov 19 | vs | UTEP #237 | +8.7 | 76% | |
| Sun Nov 22 | N |  Robert Morris #113 | -1.3 | 46% | |
| Tue Nov 24 | N |  Ohio #232 | +3.4 | 61% | |
| Sat Nov 28 | vs |  Denver #240 | +8.9 | 77% | |
| Sat Dec 05 | at |  New Mexico #50 | -13.5 | 14% | |
| Wed Dec 09 | at |  Saint Mary's #60 | -11.9 | 16% | |
| Tue Dec 15 | vs |  Pacific #175 | +6.5 | 70% | |
| Thu Dec 31 | vs |  Florida International #143 | conf | +2.6 | 58% |
| Sat Jan 02 | vs |  Missouri State #201 | conf | +4.5 | 64% |
| Thu Jan 07 | at |  Western Kentucky #160 | conf | -1.4 | 46% |
| Sat Jan 09 | at |  Middle Tennessee #127 | conf | -3.4 | 39% |
| Thu Jan 14 | vs |  Jacksonville State #203 | conf | +4.5 | 64% |
| Sat Jan 16 | vs |  Kennesaw State #167 | conf | +3.5 | 61% |
| Sat Jan 23 | vs |  Sam Houston #185 | conf | +4.0 | 63% |
| Thu Jan 28 | at |  Delaware #325 | conf | +6.0 | 69% |
| Sat Jan 30 | at |  Liberty #150 | conf | -2.5 | 42% |
| Thu Feb 04 | vs | Middle Tennessee #127 | conf | +1.5 | 55% |
| Sat Feb 06 | vs | Western Kentucky #160 | conf | +3.1 | 60% |
| Thu Feb 11 | at | Kennesaw State #167 | conf | -1.6 | 45% |
| Sat Feb 13 | at | Jacksonville State #203 | conf | +0.6 | 52% |
| Sat Feb 20 | at | Sam Houston #185 | conf | -0.5 | 48% |
| Thu Feb 25 | vs | Liberty #150 | conf | +2.6 | 58% |
| Sat Feb 27 | vs | Delaware #325 | conf | +8.9 | 77% |
| Thu Mar 04 | at | Missouri State #201 | conf | +0.5 | 52% |
| Sat Mar 06 | at | Florida International #143 | conf | -2.4 | 42% |
Projected margin is from New Mexico State's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.