Roster Math

Teams › CUSA · Compare Florida International with another team

Florida International

Florida International returns 49% of last season's minutes and rates #141 on offense and #161 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -5.9 to +8.6.

+1.4
Rating · #143 of 365
+1.0
Offense · #141
+0.4
Defense · #161
-5.9 to +8.6
80% range
<1%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
16-13
Projected record · 10 to 22 wins
10-8
Projected in CUSA · 6 to 14 wins

Why we have them here

Florida International's preseason projection of +1.4 (No. 143 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +3.0, more than the +0.8 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 218 at the end of 2025-26) adds -0.4, about its neighbours' +0.2; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -1.5. It returns 49% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (49%). The projection leans most on Tijan Saine Jr. (+3.1), Jerald Colonel (+2.4) and Zawdie Jackson (+1.9); the newcomer who matters most is Tijan Saine Jr., a transfer from Weber State, at +3.1. Its 80% range, -5.9 to +8.6, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 42% · Transfer 41% · Freshman 7% · Other newcomer 10%

Tijan Saine Jr.+3.1
Jerald Colonel+2.4
Zawdie Jackson+1.9
Hamed Olayinka+0.8
Ramone Seals+0.4
Brit Harris+0.4
Trey Beamer+0.0
Jalan Wingfield-0.2
Aydan Clinton-0.2
Jorge Santos-0.2
Gvidas Gicevicius-0.3
Renato Ruiz-0.3
Michael Kelvin II-0.3
Andreas Holst-0.3
Amarion Nimmers-0.4
Corey Caulker-0.5
Ibrahim Olajuwon-0.8
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
227Tijan Saine Jr.G5-101TransferWeber State26+4.8+3.1
316Jerald ColonelF6-92TransferStephen F. Austin21+4.6+2.4
506Zawdie JacksonG6-12ReturningFlorida International25+3.1+1.9
940Hamed OlayinkaF6-93ReturningFlorida International20+1.6+0.8
1105Ramone SealsF6-62TransferKennesaw State13+1.3+0.4
1152Brit HarrisG6-52ReturningFlorida International15+1.1+0.4
1785Trey BeamerG6-10FreshmanHigh school8-0.2+0.0
2439Jalan WingfieldF6-80FreshmanHigh school6-1.2-0.2
2898Jorge SantosF6-60Other newcomer5-1.9-0.2
2957Aydan ClintonF6-61ReturningFlorida International4-2.3-0.2
3043Corey CaulkerG6-01TransferEast Carolina22-1.0-0.5
3049Gvidas GiceviciusF6-80Other newcomer5-2.0-0.3
3135Michael Kelvin IIF6-90Other newcomer5-2.1-0.3
3316Renato RuizG6-13ReturningFlorida International4-2.6-0.3
3410Andreas HolstF7-00Other newcomer6-2.3-0.3
3835Amarion NimmersG6-31ReturningFlorida International5-2.8-0.4
4614Ibrahim OlajuwonF6-102ReturningFlorida International10-3.3-0.8

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Fri Nov 06vsWest Florida #304+12.083%
Fri Nov 13atFlorida Gulf Coast #299+0.752%
Tue Nov 17atUAB #158-4.935%
Mon Nov 23vsLong Beach State #278+11.081%
Tue Nov 24vsSouthern Utah #292+11.983%
Wed Nov 25vsArkansas State #134+5.667%
Wed Dec 02vsFlorida Atlantic #122+5.065%
Sat Dec 05atJacksonville #253-2.742%
Sat Dec 12atXavier #57-14.213%
Wed Dec 16atUCF #70-12.516%
Sun Dec 20vsLehigh #256+10.179%
Thu Dec 31atNew Mexico State #137conf-2.642%
Sat Jan 02atSam Houston #185conf-0.848%
Thu Jan 07vsLiberty #150conf+2.859%
Sat Jan 09vsDelaware #325conf+9.578%
Sat Jan 16vsMissouri State #201conf+4.865%
Thu Jan 21atMiddle Tennessee #127conf-3.938%
Sat Jan 23atWestern Kentucky #160conf-1.745%
Thu Jan 28vsJacksonville State #203conf+4.865%
Sat Jan 30vsKennesaw State #167conf+3.862%
Thu Feb 04atDelaware #325conf+6.269%
Sat Feb 06atLiberty #150conf-2.841%
Sat Feb 13atMissouri State #201conf+0.351%
Thu Feb 18vsWestern Kentucky #160conf+3.360%
Sat Feb 20vsMiddle Tennessee #127conf+1.755%
Thu Feb 25atJacksonville State #203conf+0.451%
Sat Feb 27atKennesaw State #167conf-1.944%
Thu Mar 04vsSam Houston #185conf+4.363%
Sat Mar 06vsNew Mexico State #137conf+2.458%

Projected margin is from Florida International's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.