Roster Math

Teams › ASUN · Compare West Florida with another team

West Florida

West Florida returns 0% of last season's minutes and rates #289 on offense and #295 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -14.4 to +0.6.

-6.9
Rating · #304 of 365
-3.6
Offense · #289
-3.3
Defense · #295
-14.4 to +0.6
80% range
0%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
12-17
Projected record · 7 to 18 wins
6-8
Projected in ASUN · 3 to 10 wins

Why we have them here

West Florida's preseason projection of -6.9 (No. 304 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -4.5, about the -4.4 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 176 at the end of 2025-26) adds +0.0, more than its neighbours' -1.3; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -2.7. It returns 0% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (70%). The projection leans most on Rodney Bryant (-0.4), Team (-0.5) and Michael Maumbe (-0.7); the newcomer who matters most is Rodney Bryant, a newcomer from outside Division I, at -0.4. Its 80% range, -14.4 to +0.6, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Other newcomer 18%

Rodney Bryant-0.4
Team-0.5
Michael Maumbe-0.7
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
3381Rodney BryantG6-00Other newcomer11-1.6-0.4
3464 TeamF0Other newcomer11-1.7-0.5
3982Michael MaumbeF6-80Other newcomer15-1.8-0.7

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Fri Nov 06atFlorida International #143-12.017%
Thu Nov 12atAlabama A&M #343-3.938%
Fri Nov 13NCleveland State #207-3.539%
Tue Nov 17vsGreen Bay #281+4.665%
Sun Nov 22atSouth Alabama #228-7.826%
Wed Nov 25atNorthwestern State #277-6.729%
Sun Nov 29NFlorida State #90-9.822%
Wed Dec 02atSouth Florida #83-17.29%
Sun Dec 13vsNavy #174+1.254%
Wed Dec 16vsAlabama State #340+7.873%
Sat Dec 19atWest Georgia #295-5.333%
Mon Dec 21atNorth Alabama #332-4.037%
Mon Dec 28atTarleton State #257-8.026%
Thu Dec 31vsEastern Kentucky #264+4.364%
Sat Jan 02vsAustin Peay #163+0.853%
Sat Jan 09vsQueens University #142conf-3.240%
Thu Jan 14vsNorth Florida #321conf+3.962%
Sat Jan 16vsJacksonville #253conf+0.652%
Thu Jan 21atFlorida Gulf Coast #299conf-2.044%
Sat Jan 23atStetson #311conf-1.944%
Thu Jan 28vsLipscomb #118conf-4.436%
Sat Jan 30vsBellarmine #305conf+2.659%
Sat Feb 06atQueens University #142conf-8.624%
Thu Feb 11atJacksonville #253conf-5.034%
Sat Feb 13atNorth Florida #321conf-1.147%
Thu Feb 18vsStetson #311conf+3.160%
Sat Feb 20vsFlorida Gulf Coast #299conf+2.558%
Thu Feb 25atBellarmine #305conf-2.442%
Sat Feb 27atLipscomb #118conf-9.921%

Projected margin is from West Florida's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.