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South Alabama
South Alabama returns 62% of last season's minutes and rates #263 on offense and #184 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -10.2 to +4.6.
Why we have them here
South Alabama's preseason projection of -2.8 (No. 228 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -1.7, about the -2.2 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 180 at the end of 2025-26) adds -0.1, about its neighbours' -0.6; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -1.3. It returns 62% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (69%). The projection leans most on Chaze Harris (+4.0), Stephen Williams (+0.0) and Peyton Law (-0.2); the newcomer who matters most is Desmond Williams, a newcomer from outside Division I, at -0.4. Its 80% range, -10.2 to +4.6, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 52% · Other newcomer 10%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 151 | Chaze Harris | F | 6-6 | 1 | Returning | South Alabama | 30 | +5.3 | +4.0 |
| 1607 | Stephen Williams | F | 6-9 | 1 | Returning | South Alabama | 22 | +0.1 | +0.0 |
| 1993 | Peyton Law | F | 6-7 | 1 | Returning | South Alabama | 23 | -0.3 | -0.2 |
| 3120 | Desmond Williams | F | 6-2 | 0 | Other newcomer | 10 | -1.5 | -0.4 | |
| 3120 | Samuel Shoptaw | F | 6-2 | 0 | Other newcomer | 10 | -1.5 | -0.4 | |
| 5035 | JJ Wheat | G | 6-0 | 2 | Returning | South Alabama | 17 | -3.6 | -1.5 |
| 5127 | Brian Hawthorne | G | 6-2 | 1 | Returning | South Alabama | 13 | -4.8 | -1.5 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | vs |  Ohio #232 | +5.4 | 67% | |
| Thu Nov 05 | vs |  Jacksonville State #203 | +4.2 | 63% | |
| Tue Nov 10 | at |  UCF #70 | -14.4 | 12% | |
| Thu Nov 12 | N |  Loyola Marymount #170 | -1.7 | 44% | |
| Sat Nov 14 | at |  North Texas #135 | -8.3 | 25% | |
| Fri Nov 20 | at |  SMU #53 | -16.1 | 10% | |
| Sun Nov 22 | vs |  West Florida #304 | +7.8 | 74% | |
| Tue Nov 24 | vs |  Florida A&M #336 | +9.6 | 78% | |
| Fri Nov 27 | N |  Fresno State #221 | -0.3 | 49% | |
| Sat Nov 28 | N |  South Dakota State #213 | -0.4 | 49% | |
| Sat Dec 05 | vs |  UTSA #284 | +7.1 | 72% | |
| Wed Dec 16 | at |  Arkansas State #134 | conf | -6.4 | 30% |
| Sat Dec 19 | vs |  Old Dominion #297 | conf | +4.6 | 65% |
| Thu Dec 31 | at |  Marshall #247 | conf | -2.1 | 43% |
| Sat Jan 02 | at |  App State #229 | conf | -2.4 | 42% |
| Thu Jan 07 | vs |  Georgia Southern #298 | conf | +4.7 | 65% |
| Sat Jan 09 | vs |  Coastal Carolina #301 | conf | +4.6 | 65% |
| Thu Jan 14 | at |  UL Monroe #359 | conf | +5.6 | 67% |
| Sat Jan 16 | vs |  Louisiana Tech #269 | +6.3 | 70% | |
| Thu Jan 21 | at |  Louisiana #294 | conf | +0.4 | 51% |
| Sat Jan 23 | vs |  Southern Miss #214 | conf | +1.6 | 55% |
| Wed Jan 27 | at |  Troy #155 | conf | -5.3 | 33% |
| Sat Jan 30 | at | Louisiana Tech #269 | -3.6 | 38% | |
| Wed Feb 03 | vs | Arkansas State #134 | conf | -1.4 | 45% |
| Sat Feb 13 | at |  Georgia State #260 | conf | -1.5 | 45% |
| Thu Feb 18 | vs | Troy #155 | conf | -0.4 | 49% |
| Sat Feb 20 | vs | Louisiana #294 | conf | +4.2 | 64% |
| Wed Feb 24 | vs | UL Monroe #359 | conf | +10.0 | 79% |
| Fri Feb 26 | at | Southern Miss #214 | conf | -2.9 | 41% |
Projected margin is from South Alabama's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.