Roster Math

Teams › Sun Belt · Compare UL Monroe with another team

UL Monroe

UL Monroe returns 66% of last season's minutes and rates #354 on offense and #360 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -21.4 to -6.8.

-14.2
Rating · #359 of 365
-7.8
Offense · #354
-6.4
Defense · #360
-21.4 to -6.8
80% range
0%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
6-23
Projected record · 2 to 11 wins
4-12
Projected in Sun Belt · 1 to 8 wins

Why we have them here

UL Monroe's preseason projection of -14.2 (No. 359 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -8.4, less than the -7.4 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 355 at the end of 2025-26) adds -3.1, about its neighbours' -3.0; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -3.0. It returns 66% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (81%). The projection leans most on Quaran McPherson (+0.1), Dayjaun Anderson (+0.0) and Lance Carr (-0.3); the newcomer who matters most is Quaran McPherson, a transfer from UAB, at +0.1. Its 80% range, -21.4 to -6.8, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 50% · Transfer 35% · Other newcomer 15%

Quaran McPherson+0.1
Dayjaun Anderson+0.0
Lance Carr-0.3
Cam Campbell-0.7
Ajay Tew-0.8
Robert Cowherd-0.9
Alex Huguet Carrasco-1.0
Brady Craig-1.2
Brentay Noel-1.2
Dylan Diaz-1.3
Khalil London-1.3
Wiggy Ball-1.7
Przemek Hartman-1.7
Micah Caster-2.0
Alex Molofeev-2.4
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
1485Quaran McPhersonG6-43TransferUAB15+0.3+0.1
1598Dayjaun AndersonG6-21TransferUAB21+0.1+0.0
2900Lance CarrF6-71TransferUAB8-1.5-0.3
4691Cam CampbellG6-32ReturningUL Monroe6-4.3-0.7
4728Dylan DiazG6-21ReturningUL Monroe21-2.4-1.3
4827Alex Huguet CarrascoG6-71ReturningUL Monroe11-3.6-1.0
4868Robert CowherdG6-53TransferSouthern Miss9-4.1-0.9
4888Brady CraigF6-80Other newcomer15-3.2-1.2
4906Ajay TewG6-113ReturningUL Monroe6-5.3-0.8
4923Brentay NoelF6-103Other newcomer15-3.3-1.2
4969Khalil LondonG6-33TransferTennessee State16-3.4-1.3
5181Wiggy BallG6-31ReturningUL Monroe12-5.5-1.7
5201Przemek HartmanF6-91ReturningUL Monroe11-6.3-1.7
5209Alex MolofeevG6-51ReturningUL Monroe20-4.7-2.4
5213Micah CasterG6-22ReturningUL Monroe14-5.8-2.0

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02vsCentral Michigan #259-1.346%
Mon Nov 09atTexas A&M #31-28.71%
Tue Nov 10atTCU #51-25.82%
Fri Nov 13atArizona State #52-25.22%
Sat Nov 14atGrand Canyon #59-23.73%
Wed Nov 18atLSU #39-25.92%
Tue Nov 24vsHouston Christian #273-0.847%
Sun Nov 29atTulane #250-13.414%
Wed Dec 02atLamar #238-13.015%
Sat Dec 05vsGeorgia State #260conf-4.536%
Sat Dec 12atOle Miss #61-22.83%
Wed Dec 16atLouisiana #294conf-7.328%
Mon Dec 28atOklahoma #30-27.61%
Thu Dec 31atOld Dominion #297conf-7.727%
Sat Jan 02atCoastal Carolina #301conf-7.328%
Thu Jan 07vsMarshall #247conf-5.134%
Sat Jan 09vsApp State #229conf-5.333%
Thu Jan 14vsSouth Alabama #228conf-5.633%
Sat Jan 16atTroy #155conf-13.813%
Wed Jan 20atSouthern Miss #214conf-11.318%
Sat Jan 23vsLouisiana Tech #269-0.947%
Sat Jan 30atJames Madison #147conf-13.414%
Wed Feb 03vsTroy #155conf-8.325%
Wed Feb 10atArkansas State #134conf-15.311%
Sat Feb 13atLouisiana Tech #269-11.617%
Wed Feb 17vsSouthern Miss #214conf-6.231%
Sat Feb 20vsArkansas State #134conf-9.722%
Wed Feb 24atSouth Alabama #228conf-10.021%
Fri Feb 26vsLouisiana #294conf-2.941%

Projected margin is from UL Monroe's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.