Teams › Big 12 · Compare Arizona State with another team
Arizona State
Arizona State returns 11% of last season's minutes and rates #78 on offense and #21 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +4.3 to +19.2.
Why we have them here
Arizona State's preseason projection of +11.8 (No. 52 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +9.1, more than the +7.0 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 88 at the end of 2025-26) adds +1.0, about its neighbours' +1.7; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +1.0. A stretch at the top of the scale adds +0.4, because a straight-line calibration shrinks elite teams. It returns 11% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (33%). The projection leans most on Paulius Murauskas (+6.5), Ben Defty (+4.8) and Joel Foxwell (+3.5); the newcomer who matters most is Paulius Murauskas, a transfer from Saint Mary's, at +6.5. Its 80% range, +4.3 to +19.2, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 9% · Transfer 73% · Freshman 9% · Other newcomer 9%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Paulius Murauskas | F | 6-8 | 3 | Transfer | Saint Mary's | 30 | +8.7 | +6.5 |
| 87 | Ben Defty | F | 7-0 | 2 | Transfer | Boston University | 29 | +6.6 | +4.8 |
| 217 | Joel Foxwell | G | 6-1 | 1 | Transfer | Portland | 30 | +4.6 | +3.5 |
| 311 | Dillan Shaw | G | 6-7 | 1 | Transfer | Saint Mary's | 27 | +4.1 | +2.8 |
| 438 | Emmanuel Innocenti | F | 6-5 | 3 | Transfer | Gonzaga | 23 | +3.6 | +2.1 |
| 1826 | Nate Garcia | C | 7-0 | 1 | Transfer | California Baptist | 7 | -0.3 | -0.1 |
| 2331 | Jokubas Rudaitis | F | 6-5 | 0 | Other newcomer | 4 | -1.2 | -0.1 | |
| 2331 | Vijay Wallace | F | 6-5 | 0 | Other newcomer | 4 | -1.2 | -0.1 | |
| 2349 | Marcus Vaughns | F | 6-8 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 8 | -0.9 | -0.2 |
| 2410 | JRob Croy | G | 6-5 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 10 | -0.9 | -0.2 |
| 2654 | Ajak Nyuon | F | 6-10 | 0 | Other newcomer | 5 | -1.6 | -0.2 | |
| 3482 | Filip Malesevic | C | 7-3 | 0 | Other newcomer | 4 | -2.9 | -0.3 | |
| 4279 | Bryce Ford | G | 6-4 | 3 | Returning | Arizona State | 18 | -2.0 | -0.9 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | vs |  East Tennessee State #171 | +14.4 | 88% | |
| Fri Nov 06 | vs |  Northern Colorado #128 | +13.0 | 85% | |
| Tue Nov 10 | vs |  Hofstra #124 | +12.1 | 84% | |
| Fri Nov 13 | vs |  UL Monroe #359 | +25.2 | 98% | |
| Wed Nov 18 | vs |  Oakland #159 | +14.4 | 88% | |
| Wed Nov 25 | N |  LSU #39 | -1.2 | 46% | |
| Thu Nov 26 | N |  South Carolina #98 | +4.4 | 64% | |
| Mon Nov 30 | vs |  Montana #222 | +16.5 | 91% | |
| Sat Dec 05 | N |  Oklahoma #30 | -2.3 | 43% | |
| Tue Dec 08 | vs |  Mercer #231 | +17.2 | 92% | |
| Mon Dec 14 | at |  Oregon State #93 | -3.2 | 40% | |
| Sun Dec 20 | vs |  San Diego #263 | +18.1 | 93% | |
| Wed Dec 23 | vs |  Idaho #251 | +17.2 | 92% | |
| Tue Dec 29 | vs |  Southern Illinois #206 | +16.2 | 90% | |
| Sat Jan 02 | vs |  BYU #23 | conf | -1.4 | 46% |
| Tue Jan 05 | at |  TCU #51 | conf | -3.9 | 38% |
| Sat Jan 09 | vs |  UCF #70 | conf | +5.2 | 66% |
| Tue Jan 12 | at |  Texas Tech #15 | conf | -9.3 | 23% |
| Sat Jan 16 | at |  Arizona #3 | conf | -13.4 | 14% |
| Tue Jan 19 | vs |  Kansas State #99 | conf | +8.1 | 74% |
| Sat Jan 23 | vs |  Houston #8 | conf | -4.0 | 37% |
| Wed Jan 27 | at |  West Virginia #48 | conf | -3.9 | 37% |
| Sat Jan 30 | at |  Cincinnati #42 | conf | -4.8 | 35% |
| Sat Feb 06 | vs | TCU #51 | conf | +3.0 | 60% |
| Tue Feb 09 | at |  Kansas #10 | conf | -11.8 | 17% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs | Arizona #3 | conf | -5.7 | 32% |
| Tue Feb 16 | at | Kansas State #99 | conf | +2.1 | 57% |
| Fri Feb 19 | vs |  Iowa State #9 | conf | -3.9 | 38% |
| Tue Feb 23 | vs |  Utah #72 | conf | +5.1 | 66% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at |  Colorado #85 | conf | -1.0 | 47% |
| Tue Mar 02 | vs |  Baylor #37 | conf | +1.7 | 56% |
| Sat Mar 06 | at |  Oklahoma State #91 | conf | +0.6 | 52% |
Projected margin is from Arizona State's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.