Teams › Big 12 · Compare Iowa State with another team
Iowa State
Iowa State returns 44% of last season's minutes and rates #9 on offense and #11 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +14.5 to +29.1.
Why we have them here
Iowa State's preseason projection of +21.9 (No. 9 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +12.7, more than the +11.8 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 7 at the end of 2025-26) adds +4.7, more than its neighbours' +3.7; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +5.6. A stretch at the top of the scale adds +1.2, because a straight-line calibration shrinks elite teams. It returns 44% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (35%). The projection leans most on Tamin Lipsey (+5.7), Jaquan Johnson (+5.6) and Ryan Prather Jr. (+2.5); the newcomer who matters most is Jaquan Johnson, a transfer from Bradley, at +5.6. Its 80% range, +14.5 to +29.1, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 44% · Transfer 49% · Freshman 7%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Jaquan Johnson | G | 5-11 | 2 | Transfer | Bradley | 24 | +9.4 | +5.6 |
| 28 | Tamin Lipsey | G | 6-1 | 4 | Returning | Iowa State | 27 | +8.6 | +5.7 |
| 271 | Blake Buchanan | F | 6-10 | 3 | Returning | Iowa State | 17 | +5.4 | +2.3 |
| 326 | Ryan Prather Jr. | G | 6-5 | 3 | Transfer | Robert Morris | 23 | +4.3 | +2.5 |
| 360 | Killyan Toure | G | 6-3 | 1 | Returning | Iowa State | 18 | +4.7 | +2.1 |
| 405 | Jamarion Batemon | G | 6-3 | 1 | Returning | Iowa State | 12 | +5.4 | +1.6 |
| 408 | Leon Bond III | F | 6-5 | 3 | Transfer | Northern Iowa | 24 | +3.8 | +2.2 |
| 652 | Tre Singleton | F | 6-8 | 1 | Transfer | Northwestern | 16 | +3.2 | +1.3 |
| 815 | Dominykas Pleta | F | 6-11 | 1 | Returning | Iowa State | 8 | +3.3 | +0.7 |
| 1053 | Taj Manning | F | 6-7 | 3 | Transfer | Kansas State | 12 | +1.6 | +0.5 |
| 1284 | Xzavion Mitchell | F | 6-6 | 1 | Returning | Iowa State | 4 | +1.5 | +0.1 |
| 1390 | Anthony Rise | G | 6-0 | 1 | Returning | Iowa State | 3 | +1.0 | +0.1 |
| 1426 | Dorian Rinaldo-Komlan | C | 6-10 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 4 | +0.7 | +0.1 |
| 1888 | Christian Wiggins | G | 6-4 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 5 | -0.5 | -0.1 |
| 2128 | Yusef Gray Jr. | G | 6-3 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 5 | -0.9 | -0.1 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | N |  Memphis #100 | +11.8 | 83% | |
| Fri Nov 06 | vs |  Southern Miss #214 | +23.8 | 97% | |
| Tue Nov 10 | vs |  Southern #235 | +25.3 | 98% | |
| Sun Nov 15 | vs |  Niagara #329 | +26.1 | 98% | |
| Tue Nov 24 | N |  San Diego State #81 | +9.9 | 79% | |
| Tue Dec 01 | vs |  Alcorn State #358 | +31.4 | >99% | |
| Sat Dec 05 | vs |  Purdue #38 | +12.1 | 84% | |
| Thu Dec 10 | at |  Iowa #33 | -1.8 | 44% | |
| Sun Dec 13 | vs |  North Carolina Central #353 | +30.2 | >99% | |
| Fri Dec 18 | N |  Missouri State #201 | +15.9 | 90% | |
| Mon Dec 21 | vs |  Northern Arizona #307 | +25.7 | 98% | |
| Tue Dec 29 | vs |  New Hampshire #335 | +28.8 | >99% | |
| Sat Jan 02 | vs |  Arizona #3 | conf | +2.4 | 58% |
| Tue Jan 05 | at |  Colorado #85 | conf | +6.0 | 69% |
| Sat Jan 09 | vs |  Oklahoma State #91 | conf | +15.2 | 89% |
| Wed Jan 13 | at |  Houston #8 | conf | -5.0 | 34% |
| Sat Jan 16 | at |  Texas Tech #15 | conf | -2.3 | 43% |
| Wed Jan 20 | vs |  BYU #23 | conf | +6.6 | 70% |
| Sat Jan 23 | at |  UCF #70 | conf | +5.9 | 68% |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs |  Kansas State #99 | conf | +16.2 | 90% |
| Tue Feb 02 | vs |  Utah #72 | conf | +12.6 | 85% |
| Sat Feb 06 | at |  West Virginia #48 | conf | +2.7 | 59% |
| Wed Feb 10 | at | Oklahoma State #91 | conf | +7.9 | 74% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs |  Kansas #10 | conf | +4.0 | 63% |
| Tue Feb 16 | vs |  Cincinnati #42 | conf | +9.9 | 79% |
| Fri Feb 19 | at |  Arizona State #52 | conf | +3.9 | 62% |
| Tue Feb 23 | at |  Baylor #37 | conf | +1.4 | 54% |
| Sat Feb 27 | vs |  TCU #51 | conf | +10.7 | 81% |
| Mon Mar 01 | at | Kansas #10 | conf | -4.6 | 35% |
| Sat Mar 06 | vs | West Virginia #48 | conf | +10.0 | 79% |
Projected margin is from Iowa State's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.