Roster Math

Teams › Big 12 · Compare Kansas with another team

Kansas

Kansas returns 29% of last season's minutes and rates #20 on offense and #5 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +14.2 to +29.1.

+21.7
Rating · #10 of 365
+10.8
Offense · #20
+10.9
Defense · #5
+14.2 to +29.1
80% range
73%
Chance of top 25
3%
Chance of No. 1
22-8
Projected record · 17 to 26 wins
12-6
Projected in Big 12 · 9 to 15 wins

Why we have them here

Kansas's preseason projection of +21.7 (No. 10 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +14.9, more than the +11.6 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 22 at the end of 2025-26) adds +3.0, less than its neighbours' +3.8; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +4.3. A stretch at the top of the scale adds +1.2, because a straight-line calibration shrinks elite teams. It returns 29% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (34%). The projection leans most on Tyran Stokes (+5.9), Trey Kaufman-Renn (+5.3) and Keanu Dawes (+4.1); the newcomer who matters most is Tyran Stokes, a freshman, recruit No. 1, at +5.9. Its 80% range, +14.2 to +29.1, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 29% · Transfer 48% · Freshman 23% · Other newcomer 1%

Tyran Stokes+5.9
Trey Kaufman-Renn+5.3
Keanu Dawes+4.1
Melvin Council Jr.+4.0
Leroy Blyden Jr.+3.9
Tre White+2.3
Christian Reeves+1.3
Dennis Parker Jr.+1.2
Taylen Kinney+0.7
Kohl Rosario+0.1
Davion Adkins+0.1
Trent Perry+0.1
Paul Mbiya+0.0
Will Thengvall+0.0
Atticus Richmond+0.0
Luke Barnett-0.1
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
18Tyran StokesF6-70FreshmanHigh school23+10.0+5.9
23Trey Kaufman-RennF6-94TransferPurdue21+10.1+5.3
91Keanu DawesF6-93TransferUtah22+7.5+4.1
109Leroy Blyden Jr.G6-11TransferToledo23+6.8+3.9
136Melvin Council Jr.G6-43ReturningKansas27+5.9+4.0
342Tre WhiteG6-74ReturningKansas21+4.5+2.3
539Christian ReevesC7-24TransferCharleston12+4.2+1.3
694Dennis Parker Jr.G6-63TransferRadford17+2.8+1.2
889Taylen KinneyG6-10FreshmanHigh school12+2.4+0.7
1345Kohl RosarioG6-61ReturningKansas6+0.9+0.1
1374Davion AdkinsC6-90FreshmanHigh school2+1.3+0.1
1450Trent PerryF6-50FreshmanHigh school5+0.5+0.1
1489Paul MbiyaC7-01ReturningKansas2+0.7+0.0
1655Will ThengvallG6-42ReturningKansas2+0.0+0.0
1756Atticus RichmondF6-80Other newcomer1-0.5+0.0
1887Luke BarnettG6-40FreshmanHigh school4-0.5-0.1

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02vsFordham #125+20.295%
Fri Nov 06vsMiddle Tennessee #127+20.995%
Tue Nov 10NKentucky #22+2.458%
Tue Nov 17NUNLV #139+14.488%
Mon Nov 23vsDenver #240+25.398%
Fri Nov 27vsVillanova #24+10.580%
Tue Dec 01vsNorthern Iowa #88+17.092%
Sun Dec 06NMissouri #43+5.968%
Sat Dec 12atUConn #4-7.328%
Sat Dec 19NOhio State #27+4.063%
Tue Dec 22vsIndiana State #116+21.196%
Tue Dec 29vsNew Orleans #303+28.499%
Sat Jan 02vsWest Virginia #48conf+10.881%
Wed Jan 06atUtah #72conf+4.464%
Sat Jan 09atBYU #23conf-2.542%
Wed Jan 13vsColorado #85conf+14.888%
Sat Jan 16vsUCF #70conf+13.987%
Tue Jan 19atCincinnati #42conf+2.257%
Sat Jan 23atKansas State #99conf+9.377%
Sat Jan 30vsOklahoma State #91conf+16.190%
Mon Feb 01atHouston #8conf-5.234%
Sat Feb 06vsTexas Tech #15conf+5.968%
Tue Feb 09vsArizona State #52conf+11.883%
Sat Feb 13atIowa State #9conf-4.037%
Wed Feb 17vsBaylor #37conf+10.380%
Sat Feb 20atArizona #3conf-6.231%
Wed Feb 24atTCU #51conf+3.160%
Sat Feb 27vsKansas State #99conf+17.191%
Mon Mar 01vsIowa State #9conf+4.665%
Sat Mar 06atBaylor #37conf+1.354%

Projected margin is from Kansas's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.