Teams › SEC · Compare Kentucky with another team
Kentucky
Kentucky returns 28% of last season's minutes and rates #14 on offense and #26 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +10.8 to +25.6.
Why we have them here
Kentucky's preseason projection of +18.2 (No. 22 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +10.6, about the +9.9 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 27 at the end of 2025-26) adds +3.0, about its neighbours' +3.2; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +4.4. A stretch at the top of the scale adds +0.9, because a straight-line calibration shrinks elite teams. It returns 28% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (30%). The projection leans most on Milan Momcilovic (+7.8), Zoom Diallo (+4.4) and Malachi Moreno (+3.6); the newcomer who matters most is Milan Momcilovic, a transfer from Iowa State, at +7.8. Its 80% range, +10.8 to +25.6, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 25% · Transfer 66% · Freshman 4% · Other newcomer 5%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Milan Momcilovic | F | 6-8 | 3 | Transfer | Iowa State | 28 | +11.1 | +7.8 |
| 94 | Zoom Diallo | G | 6-4 | 2 | Transfer | Washington | 25 | +6.9 | +4.4 |
| 126 | Malachi Moreno | C | 7-0 | 1 | Returning | Kentucky | 21 | +6.8 | +3.6 |
| 599 | Kam Williams | G | 6-8 | 2 | Returning | Kentucky | 17 | +3.3 | +1.4 |
| 719 | Alex Wilkins | G | 6-5 | 1 | Transfer | Furman | 23 | +2.3 | +1.3 |
| 738 | Franck Kepnang | C | 6-11 | 6 | Transfer | Washington | 17 | +2.6 | +1.1 |
| 798 | Justin McBride | F | 6-7 | 3 | Transfer | James Madison | 21 | +2.1 | +1.1 |
| 831 | Trent Noah | F | 6-5 | 2 | Returning | Kentucky | 12 | +2.6 | +0.8 |
| 1775 | Zyon Hawthorne | G | 6-1 | 0 | Other newcomer | 2 | -0.4 | +0.0 | |
| 1840 | Braydon Hawthorne | F | 6-8 | 0 | Other newcomer | 2 | -0.6 | +0.0 | |
| 1840 | Mason Williams | G | 6-2 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 8 | -0.3 | -0.1 |
| 1956 | Ousmane N'Diaye | F | 7-0 | 0 | Other newcomer | 3 | -0.8 | -0.1 | |
| 1995 | Reece Potter | F | 7-1 | 3 | Other newcomer | 3 | -0.9 | -0.1 | |
| 3730 | Jerone Morton | G | 6-4 | 3 | Transfer | Washington State | 17 | -1.5 | -0.6 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Nov 03 | vs |  Manhattan #309 | +25.1 | 98% | |
| Fri Nov 06 | vs |  James Madison #147 | +18.6 | 94% | |
| Tue Nov 10 | N |  Kansas #10 | -2.4 | 42% | |
| Fri Nov 13 | vs |  Northern Arizona #307 | +23.7 | 97% | |
| Mon Nov 16 | vs |  Grambling #302 | +24.4 | 98% | |
| Fri Nov 20 | N |  Indiana #55 | +4.7 | 65% | |
| Fri Nov 27 | vs |  Wichita State #62 | +12.9 | 85% | |
| Wed Dec 02 | at |  Virginia #19 | -7.6 | 27% | |
| Sat Dec 05 | vs |  App State #229 | +20.6 | 95% | |
| Tue Dec 08 | vs |  Bryant #327 | +25.0 | 98% | |
| Sat Dec 12 | vs |  Louisville #7 | +4.4 | 64% | |
| Sat Dec 19 | N |  North Carolina #54 | +4.7 | 65% | |
| Tue Dec 22 | vs |  Sacred Heart #272 | +23.5 | 97% | |
| Mon Dec 28 | vs |  Gardner-Webb #361 | +30.4 | >99% | |
| Sat Jan 02 | at |  Oklahoma #30 | conf | -1.4 | 45% |
| Tue Jan 05 | vs |  Ole Miss #61 | conf | +9.6 | 78% |
| Sat Jan 09 | at |  Missouri #43 | conf | +0.6 | 52% |
| Wed Jan 13 | vs |  LSU #39 | conf | +7.3 | 72% |
| Sat Jan 16 | vs |  Vanderbilt #26 | conf | +5.6 | 68% |
| Wed Jan 20 | at |  Mississippi State #78 | conf | +4.6 | 65% |
| Sat Jan 23 | vs |  Tennessee #13 | conf | +2.5 | 58% |
| Sat Jan 30 | at |  Texas #20 | conf | -3.6 | 39% |
| Tue Feb 02 | at | Ole Miss #61 | conf | +3.3 | 60% |
| Sat Feb 06 | vs |  Alabama #17 | conf | +3.5 | 61% |
| Wed Feb 10 | vs |  South Carolina #98 | conf | +12.8 | 85% |
| Sat Feb 13 | at | Tennessee #13 | conf | -5.5 | 33% |
| Tue Feb 16 | at |  Georgia #32 | conf | -1.2 | 46% |
| Sat Feb 20 | vs |  Arkansas #25 | conf | +4.8 | 65% |
| Tue Feb 23 | at | Vanderbilt #26 | conf | -1.8 | 44% |
| Sat Feb 27 | vs |  Auburn #16 | conf | +3.0 | 60% |
| Wed Mar 03 | vs |  Texas A&M #31 | conf | +6.7 | 70% |
| Sat Mar 06 | at |  Florida #1 | conf | -12.7 | 15% |
Projected margin is from Kentucky's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.