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Texas
Texas returns 17% of last season's minutes and rates #16 on offense and #20 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +11.1 to +25.9.
Why we have them here
Texas's preseason projection of +18.5 (No. 20 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +9.9, about the +10.1 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 38 at the end of 2025-26) adds +2.7, about its neighbours' +3.3; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +0.9. A stretch at the top of the scale adds +0.6, because a straight-line calibration shrinks elite teams. It returns 17% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (32%). The projection leans most on Isaiah Johnson (+4.1), Mikey Lewis (+3.7) and David Punch (+3.7); the newcomer who matters most is Isaiah Johnson, a transfer from Colorado, at +4.1. Its 80% range, +11.1 to +25.9, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 14% · Transfer 54% · Freshman 26% · Other newcomer 6%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 113 | Isaiah Johnson | G | 6-1 | 1 | Transfer | Colorado | 25 | +6.4 | +4.1 |
| 137 | Matas Vokietaitis | C | 7-0 | 2 | Returning | Texas | 23 | +6.3 | +3.7 |
| 143 | David Punch | F | 6-7 | 2 | Transfer | TCU | 25 | +6.0 | +3.7 |
| 143 | Mikey Lewis | G | 6-3 | 2 | Transfer | Saint Mary's | 25 | +6.0 | +3.7 |
| 522 | Marcus Spears Jr. | F | 6-9 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 17 | +3.6 | +1.6 |
| 905 | Amari Evans | G | 6-5 | 1 | Transfer | Tennessee | 13 | +2.3 | +0.7 |
| 909 | Elyjah Freeman | G | 6-8 | 1 | Transfer | Auburn | 21 | +1.7 | +0.9 |
| 1054 | Austin Goosby | G | 6-5 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 16 | +1.4 | +0.6 |
| 1057 | Bo Ogden | F | 6-5 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 12 | +1.6 | +0.5 |
| 1698 | Anthon McDermott | G | 6-4 | 1 | Returning | Texas | 5 | -0.1 | +0.0 |
| 1948 | Mantas Laurencikas | G | 6-4 | 0 | Other newcomer | 3 | -0.8 | -0.1 | |
| 1967 | John Clark | F | 6-9 | 0 | Other newcomer | 3 | -0.8 | -0.1 | |
| 2002 | Joe Sterling | G | 6-4 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 7 | -0.6 | -0.1 |
| 2052 | Coleman Elkins | F | 6-11 | 0 | Other newcomer | 3 | -1.0 | -0.1 | |
| 2095 | Lewis Obiorah | F | 7-0 | 0 | Other newcomer | 3 | -1.0 | -0.1 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | vs |  Chicago State #337 | +25.3 | 98% | |
| Thu Nov 05 | vs |  Gardner-Webb #361 | +29.8 | >99% | |
| Mon Nov 09 | vs |  Grambling #302 | +23.8 | 97% | |
| Sun Nov 15 | N |  Baylor #37 | +3.3 | 60% | |
| Thu Nov 19 | vs |  Southern Utah #292 | +24.4 | 98% | |
| Sun Nov 22 | vs |  Southern Indiana #315 | +24.7 | 98% | |
| Thu Nov 26 | N |  Georgetown #84 | +7.3 | 72% | |
| Tue Dec 01 | at |  Louisville #7 | -8.6 | 25% | |
| Tue Dec 08 | vs |  Jackson State #355 | +29.0 | >99% | |
| Sat Dec 12 | N |  Miami #18 | -0.2 | 49% | |
| Wed Dec 16 | vs |  Memphis #100 | +16.2 | 90% | |
| Mon Dec 21 | vs |  Prairie View A&M #341 | +27.0 | 98% | |
| Tue Dec 29 | vs |  East Texas A&M #319 | +25.2 | 98% | |
| Sat Jan 02 | vs |  Florida #1 | conf | -5.3 | 34% |
| Tue Jan 05 | at |  Georgia #32 | conf | -1.0 | 47% |
| Sat Jan 09 | at |  Ole Miss #61 | conf | +3.4 | 61% |
| Tue Jan 12 | vs |  Auburn #16 | conf | +2.6 | 58% |
| Sat Jan 16 | vs |  Oklahoma #30 | conf | +5.7 | 68% |
| Tue Jan 19 | at |  LSU #39 | conf | +0.9 | 53% |
| Sat Jan 23 | vs |  Arkansas #25 | conf | +4.3 | 63% |
| Wed Jan 27 | at |  South Carolina #98 | conf | +5.4 | 67% |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs |  Kentucky #22 | conf | +3.6 | 61% |
| Sat Feb 06 | at | Florida #1 | conf | -12.5 | 16% |
| Tue Feb 09 | vs |  Alabama #17 | conf | +3.0 | 60% |
| Sat Feb 13 | at |  Vanderbilt #26 | conf | -1.6 | 45% |
| Wed Feb 17 | vs |  Texas A&M #31 | conf | +6.2 | 69% |
| Sat Feb 20 | at | Oklahoma #30 | conf | -1.3 | 46% |
| Wed Feb 24 | at |  Mississippi State #78 | conf | +4.8 | 65% |
| Sat Feb 27 | vs |  Tennessee #13 | conf | +2.0 | 57% |
| Tue Mar 02 | vs |  Missouri #43 | conf | +7.1 | 72% |
| Sat Mar 06 | at | Texas A&M #31 | conf | -0.8 | 47% |
Projected margin is from Texas's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.