Teams › SEC · Compare Florida with another team
Florida
Florida returns 86% of last season's minutes and rates No. 1 on both offense and defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +23.4 to +38.4.
Why we have them here
Florida's preseason projection of +30.9 (No. 1 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +18.2, more than the +12.3 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 4 at the end of 2025-26) adds +5.0, more than its neighbours' +4.2; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +5.7. A stretch at the top of the scale adds +1.6, because a straight-line calibration shrinks elite teams. It returns 86% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (38%). The projection leans most on Thomas Haugh (+7.4), Rueben Chinyelu (+6.3) and Alex Condon (+6.2); the newcomer who matters most is Denzel Aberdeen, a transfer from Kentucky, at +3.4. Its 80% range, +23.4 to +38.4, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 85% · Transfer 13% · Other newcomer 2%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Thomas Haugh | F | 6-9 | 3 | Returning | Florida | 30 | +10.0 | +7.4 |
| 14 | Rueben Chinyelu | C | 6-10 | 3 | Returning | Florida | 25 | +10.2 | +6.3 |
| 22 | Alex Condon | F | 6-11 | 3 | Returning | Florida | 29 | +8.7 | +6.2 |
| 27 | Boogie Fland | G | 6-3 | 2 | Returning | Florida | 27 | +8.6 | +5.8 |
| 173 | Denzel Aberdeen | G | 6-5 | 4 | Transfer | Kentucky | 25 | +5.4 | +3.4 |
| 197 | Isaiah Brown | G | 6-4 | 2 | Returning | Florida | 16 | +6.4 | +2.6 |
| 245 | Urban Klavzar | G | 6-1 | 2 | Returning | Florida | 19 | +5.4 | +2.6 |
| 957 | CJ Ingram | G | 6-6 | 1 | Returning | Florida | 8 | +2.6 | +0.5 |
| 1236 | Alex Lloyd | G | 6-3 | 1 | Returning | Florida | 6 | +1.3 | +0.2 |
| 1349 | Viktor Mikic | C | 6-11 | 2 | Returning | Florida | 5 | +1.0 | +0.1 |
| 1532 | Alex Kovatchev | G | 6-5 | 3 | Returning | Florida | 5 | +0.3 | +0.0 |
| 1554 | AJ Brown | F | 6-4 | 4 | Other newcomer | 1 | +0.5 | +0.0 | |
| 1614 | Domen Petrovic | F | 6-9 | 0 | Other newcomer | 1 | +0.2 | +0.0 | |
| 1629 | Arturas Butajevas | F | 6-10 | 0 | Other newcomer | 1 | +0.2 | +0.0 | |
| 1822 | Jones Lay | C | 6-11 | 0 | Other newcomer | 1 | -0.9 | +0.0 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | N |  Miami #18 | +8.6 | 76% | |
| Thu Nov 05 | vs |  Jacksonville #253 | +30.4 | >99% | |
| Tue Nov 10 | at |  Florida State #90 | +11.3 | 82% | |
| Fri Nov 13 | vs |  Merrimack #176 | +27.9 | 99% | |
| Tue Nov 17 | N |  Notre Dame #75 | +15.7 | 90% | |
| Tue Nov 24 | vs |  Milwaukee #242 | +31.4 | >99% | |
| Tue Dec 01 | vs |  Duke #2 | +9.7 | 78% | |
| Sun Dec 06 | vs |  Vermont #202 | +29.1 | >99% | |
| Sat Dec 12 | N |  Georgia Tech #140 | +21.6 | 96% | |
| Fri Dec 18 | N |  Grand Canyon #59 | +14.7 | 88% | |
| Mon Dec 21 | vs |  Florida A&M #336 | +35.6 | >99% | |
| Tue Dec 29 | vs |  Long Island University #210 | +30.3 | >99% | |
| Sat Jan 02 | at |  Texas #20 | conf | +5.3 | 66% |
| Wed Jan 06 | vs |  Oklahoma #30 | conf | +14.8 | 88% |
| Sat Jan 09 | vs |  Vanderbilt #26 | conf | +14.4 | 88% |
| Wed Jan 13 | at |  Mississippi State #78 | conf | +14.0 | 87% |
| Sat Jan 16 | at |  Alabama #17 | conf | +4.7 | 65% |
| Wed Jan 20 | vs |  Texas A&M #31 | conf | +15.9 | 90% |
| Sat Jan 23 | at |  Georgia #32 | conf | +8.3 | 75% |
| Sat Jan 30 | at |  Tennessee #13 | conf | +3.2 | 60% |
| Tue Feb 02 | vs |  South Carolina #98 | conf | +21.5 | 96% |
| Sat Feb 06 | vs | Texas #20 | conf | +12.5 | 84% |
| Tue Feb 09 | at |  Auburn #16 | conf | +4.3 | 63% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs |  Missouri #43 | conf | +16.1 | 90% |
| Wed Feb 17 | at |  LSU #39 | conf | +9.8 | 78% |
| Sat Feb 20 | vs | Georgia #32 | conf | +16.1 | 90% |
| Wed Feb 24 | vs |  Ole Miss #61 | conf | +18.3 | 93% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at |  Arkansas #25 | conf | +6.4 | 69% |
| Tue Mar 02 | at | South Carolina #98 | conf | +14.3 | 88% |
| Sat Mar 06 | vs |  Kentucky #22 | conf | +12.7 | 85% |
Projected margin is from Florida's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.