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Texas A&M
Texas A&M returns 23% of last season's minutes and rates #36 on both offense and defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +7.6 to +22.2.
Why we have them here
Texas A&M's preseason projection of +14.9 (No. 31 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +6.7, less than the +9.1 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 45 at the end of 2025-26) adds +2.5, about its neighbours' +2.7; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +4.8. A stretch at the top of the scale adds +0.6, because a straight-line calibration shrinks elite teams. It returns 23% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (33%). The projection leans most on P.J. Haggerty (+3.2), Jalen Shelley (+2.6) and Tyshawn Archie (+2.6); the newcomer who matters most is P.J. Haggerty, a transfer from Kansas State, at +3.2. Its 80% range, +7.6 to +22.2, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 23% · Transfer 70% · Freshman 3% · Other newcomer 4%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 225 | P.J. Haggerty | G | 6-4 | 4 | Transfer | Kansas State | 27 | +4.8 | +3.2 |
| 287 | Jalen Shelley | F | 6-8 | 2 | Transfer | Loyola Marymount | 23 | +4.6 | +2.6 |
| 301 | Tyshawn Archie | G | 6-1 | 3 | Transfer | McNeese | 23 | +4.6 | +2.6 |
| 361 | Jordan Pope | G | 6-1 | 4 | Transfer | Texas | 23 | +4.1 | +2.4 |
| 834 | Zach Clemence | F | 6-11 | 5 | Returning | Texas A&M | 14 | +2.4 | +0.9 |
| 947 | Mackenzie Mgbako | F | 6-9 | 3 | Returning | Texas A&M | 13 | +2.1 | +0.7 |
| 957 | Jamie Vinson | F | 6-11 | 2 | Returning | Texas A&M | 9 | +2.4 | +0.6 |
| 1201 | Cade Phillips | F | 6-9 | 3 | Transfer | Tennessee | 11 | +1.1 | +0.3 |
| 1245 | Jalen Reece | G | 6-0 | 1 | Transfer | LSU | 17 | +0.8 | +0.3 |
| 1457 | Josh Irving | C | 6-10 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 6 | +0.5 | +0.1 |
| 1457 | Chris McDermott | F | 6-7 | 2 | Returning | Texas A&M | 5 | +0.5 | +0.1 |
| 1750 | Jeremiah Green | G | 6-3 | 1 | Returning | Texas A&M | 5 | -0.2 | +0.0 |
| 1806 | Kyle Moran | F | 6-3 | 0 | Other newcomer | 2 | -0.5 | +0.0 | |
| 1901 | Preston Clark | F | 6-6 | 0 | Other newcomer | 3 | -0.7 | +0.0 | |
| 1936 | Neiko Mundey | G | 6-3 | 0 | Other newcomer | 3 | -0.8 | -0.1 | |
| 2706 | Lukas Walls | G | 6-5 | 3 | Transfer | Radford | 16 | -0.9 | -0.4 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Nov 03 | vs |  Alabama State #340 | +25.1 | 98% | |
| Fri Nov 06 | vs |  Northern Kentucky #270 | +22.0 | 96% | |
| Mon Nov 09 | vs |  UL Monroe #359 | +28.7 | 99% | |
| Thu Nov 12 | vs |  Oklahoma State #91 | +13.4 | 86% | |
| Mon Nov 16 | vs |  SE Louisiana #286 | +21.3 | 96% | |
| Thu Nov 19 | at |  TCU #51 | -5.0 | 34% | |
| Wed Nov 25 | N |  Xavier #57 | +3.0 | 60% | |
| Fri Nov 27 | N |  Marquette #47 | +1.8 | 56% | |
| Wed Dec 02 | vs |  Stanford #69 | +10.9 | 81% | |
| Sun Dec 06 | vs |  Arkansas-Pine Bluff #349 | +27.0 | 98% | |
| Sat Dec 12 | N |  Florida State #90 | +6.1 | 69% | |
| Thu Dec 17 | vs |  Holy Cross #352 | +25.7 | 98% | |
| Mon Dec 21 | vs |  North Florida #321 | +24.6 | 97% | |
| Tue Dec 29 | vs |  Prairie View A&M #341 | +25.6 | 98% | |
| Sat Jan 02 | vs |  Auburn #16 | conf | -0.1 | 50% |
| Tue Jan 05 | at |  Missouri #43 | conf | -1.7 | 44% |
| Sat Jan 09 | at |  South Carolina #98 | conf | +3.2 | 60% |
| Tue Jan 12 | vs |  Arkansas #25 | conf | +1.6 | 55% |
| Sat Jan 16 | vs |  LSU #39 | conf | +4.4 | 64% |
| Wed Jan 20 | at |  Florida #1 | conf | -15.9 | 10% |
| Sat Jan 23 | at |  Ole Miss #61 | conf | +1.0 | 53% |
| Tue Jan 26 | vs |  Tennessee #13 | conf | -0.6 | 48% |
| Sat Jan 30 | at |  Vanderbilt #26 | conf | -4.4 | 36% |
| Tue Feb 02 | vs |  Oklahoma #30 | conf | +3.2 | 60% |
| Sat Feb 06 | at |  Mississippi State #78 | conf | +2.4 | 57% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs |  Georgia #32 | conf | +3.7 | 62% |
| Wed Feb 17 | at |  Texas #20 | conf | -6.2 | 31% |
| Sat Feb 20 | vs | Vanderbilt #26 | conf | +2.6 | 58% |
| Tue Feb 23 | vs |  Alabama #17 | conf | +0.2 | 51% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at | LSU #39 | conf | -1.7 | 44% |
| Wed Mar 03 | at |  Kentucky #22 | conf | -6.7 | 30% |
| Sat Mar 06 | vs | Texas #20 | conf | +0.8 | 53% |
Projected margin is from Texas A&M's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.