Roster Math

Teams › SEC · Compare Ole Miss with another team

Ole Miss

Ole Miss returns 26% of last season's minutes and rates #63 on offense and #71 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +2.8 to +17.3.

+10.1
Rating · #61 of 365
+5.9
Offense · #63
+4.2
Defense · #71
+2.8 to +17.3
80% range
7%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
16-14
Projected record · 11 to 20 wins
6-12
Projected in SEC · 3 to 10 wins

Why we have them here

Ole Miss's preseason projection of +10.1 (No. 61 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +6.2, about the +6.2 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 81 at the end of 2025-26) adds +1.1, about its neighbours' +1.4; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +2.2. It returns 26% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (32%). The projection leans most on Adam Clark (+4.9), Corey Stephenson (+1.9) and Ilias Kamardine (+1.8); the newcomer who matters most is Adam Clark, a transfer from Seton Hall, at +4.9. Its 80% range, +2.8 to +17.3, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 26% · Transfer 64% · Freshman 9% · Other newcomer 1%

Adam Clark+4.9
Corey Stephenson+1.9
Ilias Kamardine+1.8
Micah Handlogten+1.5
Patton Pinkins+1.4
Dasear Haskins+1.4
Roman Siulepa+0.8
Max Smith-0.1
Christian Brown-0.1
Ben Henshall-0.1
Hobert Grayson IV-0.1
Yohance Connor-0.1
Daniel Patton-0.1
Jaron Saulsberry-0.1
Zach Day-0.2
Santiago Trouet-0.4
Stefan Cicic-0.5
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
51Adam ClarkG5-103TransferSeton Hall24+8.1+4.9
447Micah HandlogtenC7-14TransferFlorida12+5.0+1.5
486Corey StephensonG6-63TransferFlorida International23+3.3+1.9
520Ilias KamardineG6-41ReturningOle Miss22+3.2+1.8
619Patton PinkinsG6-51ReturningOle Miss18+3.1+1.4
652Dasear HaskinsG6-82TransferSaint Joseph's19+2.9+1.4
902Roman SiulepaF6-61TransferPittsburgh17+1.9+0.8
1873Christian BrownF6-81TransferJames Madison10-0.3-0.1
2044Max SmithG6-11ReturningOle Miss3-1.0-0.1
2094Jaron SaulsberryF6-60FreshmanHigh school7-0.7-0.1
2131Yohance ConnorG6-20FreshmanHigh school5-0.8-0.1
2140Ben HenshallF6-60Other newcomer3-1.2-0.1
2151Daniel PattonF6-70FreshmanHigh school5-0.9-0.1
2161Hobert Grayson IVG6-42ReturningOle Miss4-1.0-0.1
2396Zach DayG6-51ReturningOle Miss5-1.3-0.2
2749Santiago TrouetF6-113TransferArizona State15-1.0-0.4
4005Stefan CicicC7-02TransferPepperdine7-2.8-0.5

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02vsAlcorn State #358+21.896%
Fri Nov 06vsCentral Arkansas #181+13.186%
Tue Nov 10vsSE Louisiana #286+16.090%
Tue Nov 17vsNicholls #267+15.890%
Mon Nov 23NClemson #46-1.745%
Tue Dec 01atVirginia Tech #45-8.525%
Mon Dec 07vsWilliam & Mary #168+13.285%
Sat Dec 12vsUL Monroe #359+22.897%
Tue Dec 15vsYoungstown State #215+13.787%
Sat Dec 19vsNC State #36+3.059%
Tue Dec 22NSouthern Miss #214+8.676%
Mon Dec 28vsJackson State #355+21.996%
Sat Jan 02vsGeorgia #32conf-1.047%
Tue Jan 05atKentucky #22conf-9.622%
Sat Jan 09vsTexas #20conf-3.439%
Wed Jan 13atAlabama #17conf-10.620%
Sat Jan 16atAuburn #16conf-10.121%
Sat Jan 23vsTexas A&M #31conf-1.047%
Wed Jan 27vsVanderbilt #26conf-1.844%
Sat Jan 30atMissouri #43conf-4.935%
Tue Feb 02vsKentucky #22conf-3.340%
Sat Feb 06atLSU #39conf-4.934%
Tue Feb 09atArkansas #25conf-8.824%
Sat Feb 13vsMississippi State #78conf+3.862%
Wed Feb 17vsTennessee #13conf-4.735%
Sat Feb 20atSouth Carolina #98conf-0.249%
Wed Feb 24atFlorida #1conf-18.37%
Sat Feb 27vsOklahoma #30conf-1.146%
Tue Mar 02vsAuburn #16conf-4.336%
Sat Mar 06atMississippi State #78conf-1.146%

Projected margin is from Ole Miss's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.