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Auburn
Auburn returns 40% of last season's minutes and rates #5 on offense and #28 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +12.4 to +27.1.
Why we have them here
Auburn's preseason projection of +19.7 (No. 16 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +10.1, about the +10.6 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 41 at the end of 2025-26) adds +2.7, less than its neighbours' +3.6; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +5.6. A stretch at the top of the scale adds +0.9, because a straight-line calibration shrinks elite teams. It returns 40% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (34%). The projection leans most on Tahaad Pettiford (+5.9), Thomas Dowd (+5.2) and Kevin Overton (+3.2); the newcomer who matters most is Thomas Dowd, a transfer from Troy, at +5.2. Its 80% range, +12.4 to +27.1, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 37% · Transfer 53% · Freshman 3% · Other newcomer 7%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | Tahaad Pettiford | G | 6-1 | 2 | Returning | Auburn | 29 | +8.2 | +5.9 |
| 64 | Thomas Dowd | F | 6-8 | 3 | Transfer | Troy | 30 | +7.0 | +5.2 |
| 235 | Kevin Overton | G | 6-5 | 3 | Returning | Auburn | 28 | +4.6 | +3.2 |
| 462 | Owen Freeman | F | 6-10 | 3 | Transfer | Creighton | 14 | +4.5 | +1.6 |
| 580 | Bukky Oboye | C | 7-1 | 3 | Transfer | Santa Clara | 16 | +3.4 | +1.4 |
| 594 | Kolby King | G | 6-1 | 4 | Transfer | Utah State | 18 | +3.2 | +1.4 |
| 675 | Adam Olsen | F | 6-8 | 1 | Transfer | South Alabama | 27 | +2.3 | +1.6 |
| 1326 | Simon Walker | G | 6-4 | 1 | Returning | Auburn | 7 | +0.9 | +0.2 |
| 1645 | Joah Shay | F | 5-6 | 0 | Other newcomer | 2 | +0.1 | +0.0 | |
| 1771 | Bradley Pearson | F | 6-1 | 0 | Other newcomer | 2 | -0.4 | +0.0 | |
| 1785 | George Kimble III | F | 6-2 | 2 | Other newcomer | 2 | -0.4 | +0.0 | |
| 1931 | Mantas Rubstavicius | F | 6-7 | 0 | Other newcomer | 3 | -0.7 | -0.1 | |
| 1931 | Jeremiah Bowman | F | 6-7 | 0 | Other newcomer | 3 | -0.7 | -0.1 | |
| 1950 | Drake Cardwell | G | 6-5 | 1 | Returning | Auburn | 4 | -0.7 | -0.1 |
| 2378 | Narcisse Ngoy | C | 7-0 | 0 | Other newcomer | 2 | -2.1 | -0.1 | |
| 2869 | Caleb Williams | G | 6-5 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 6 | -1.6 | -0.3 |
| 3162 | Blake Muschalek | G | 6-3 | 3 | Returning | Auburn | 6 | -2.0 | -0.3 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed Nov 04 | vs |  SE Louisiana #286 | +23.8 | 97% | |
| Mon Nov 09 | vs |  App State #229 | +21.1 | 96% | |
| Fri Nov 13 | vs |  Arizona #3 | +3.7 | 62% | |
| Tue Nov 17 | N |  West Virginia #48 | +4.9 | 66% | |
| Tue Nov 24 | vs |  Lipscomb #118 | +18.6 | 93% | |
| Tue Dec 01 | at |  Clemson #46 | -1.2 | 46% | |
| Sun Dec 06 | vs |  Eastern Kentucky #264 | +23.9 | 97% | |
| Sun Dec 13 | vs |  Alabama State #340 | +27.6 | 99% | |
| Tue Dec 15 | N |  Middle Tennessee #127 | +11.7 | 83% | |
| Sat Dec 19 | N |  Wisconsin #34 | +3.7 | 62% | |
| Tue Dec 22 | vs |  Lehigh #256 | +23.5 | 97% | |
| Tue Dec 29 | vs |  Morgan State #348 | +29.2 | >99% | |
| Sat Jan 02 | at |  Texas A&M #31 | conf | +0.1 | 50% |
| Wed Jan 06 | vs |  Tennessee #13 | conf | +3.0 | 60% |
| Sat Jan 09 | vs |  Georgia #32 | conf | +7.4 | 72% |
| Tue Jan 12 | at |  Texas #20 | conf | -2.6 | 42% |
| Sat Jan 16 | vs |  Ole Miss #61 | conf | +10.1 | 79% |
| Tue Jan 19 | at |  Vanderbilt #26 | conf | -0.7 | 48% |
| Sat Jan 23 | at |  LSU #39 | conf | +1.7 | 56% |
| Tue Jan 26 | vs |  Mississippi State #78 | conf | +12.0 | 83% |
| Sat Jan 30 | at |  Alabama #17 | conf | -3.6 | 39% |
| Sat Feb 06 | vs |  Oklahoma #30 | conf | +6.7 | 71% |
| Tue Feb 09 | vs |  Florida #1 | conf | -4.3 | 37% |
| Sat Feb 13 | at |  South Carolina #98 | conf | +6.3 | 70% |
| Tue Feb 16 | at |  Arkansas #25 | conf | -1.9 | 44% |
| Sat Feb 20 | vs |  Missouri #43 | conf | +8.1 | 74% |
| Wed Feb 24 | vs | LSU #39 | conf | +7.9 | 74% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at |  Kentucky #22 | conf | -3.0 | 40% |
| Tue Mar 02 | at | Ole Miss #61 | conf | +4.3 | 64% |
| Sat Mar 06 | vs | Alabama #17 | conf | +4.1 | 63% |
Projected margin is from Auburn's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.