Teams › SEC · Compare Alabama with another team
Alabama
Alabama returns 47% of last season's minutes and rates #6 on offense and #33 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +12.0 to +26.7.
Why we have them here
Alabama's preseason projection of +19.3 (No. 17 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +11.3, about the +10.6 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 15 at the end of 2025-26) adds +4.0, about its neighbours' +3.5; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +3.7. A stretch at the top of the scale adds +0.9, because a straight-line calibration shrinks elite teams. It returns 47% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (34%). The projection leans most on Aden Holloway (+7.2), Amari Allen (+4.4) and Drew Fielder (+4.1); the newcomer who matters most is Drew Fielder, a transfer from Boise State, at +4.1. Its 80% range, +12.0 to +26.7, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 47% · Transfer 25% · Freshman 27%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Aden Holloway | G | 6-1 | 3 | Returning | Alabama | 26 | +11.0 | +7.2 |
| 80 | Amari Allen | F | 6-8 | 1 | Returning | Alabama | 24 | +7.2 | +4.4 |
| 89 | Drew Fielder | C | 6-11 | 3 | Transfer | Boise State | 22 | +7.6 | +4.1 |
| 401 | London Jemison | F | 6-8 | 1 | Returning | Alabama | 17 | +4.6 | +1.9 |
| 709 | Brandon Garrison | F | 6-10 | 3 | Transfer | Kentucky | 14 | +3.0 | +1.1 |
| 773 | Jaxon Richardson | F | 6-5 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 18 | +2.4 | +1.1 |
| 887 | Qayden Samuels | F | 6-5 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 11 | +2.4 | +0.7 |
| 1097 | Keitenn Bristow | F | 6-10 | 2 | Returning | Alabama | 10 | +1.6 | +0.4 |
| 1108 | Anderson Diaz | G | 6-1 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 8 | +1.7 | +0.3 |
| 1165 | Tarris Bouie | F | 6-6 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 10 | +1.4 | +0.3 |
| 1357 | Collins Onyejiaka | C | 6-11 | 1 | Returning | Alabama | 6 | +0.9 | +0.1 |
| 1495 | Jacob Martin | F | 1 | Returning | Alabama | 4 | +0.5 | +0.1 | |
| 1526 | Jamarion Davis-Fleming | F | 6-10 | 1 | Transfer | Mississippi State | 15 | +0.2 | +0.1 |
| 1559 | Jack Fagan | G | 1 | Returning | Alabama | 4 | +0.3 | +0.0 | |
| 1559 | Klark James | G | 1 | Returning | Alabama | 4 | +0.3 | +0.0 | |
| 1588 | Cole Cloer | F | 6-7 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 8 | +0.1 | +0.0 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Nov 03 | vs |  Sam Houston #185 | +22.5 | 96% | |
| Fri Nov 06 | vs |  Arkansas State #134 | +20.7 | 95% | |
| Mon Nov 09 | vs |  Oakland #159 | +21.4 | 96% | |
| Fri Nov 13 | vs |  Seton Hall #106 | +17.6 | 92% | |
| Tue Nov 17 | vs |  Kennesaw State #167 | +22.2 | 96% | |
| Tue Nov 24 | N |  Baylor #37 | +4.1 | 63% | |
| Wed Dec 02 | at |  Miami #18 | -6.3 | 31% | |
| Tue Dec 08 | N |  Houston #8 | -2.0 | 43% | |
| Sat Dec 12 | N |  St. John's #21 | +0.7 | 52% | |
| Wed Dec 16 | at |  South Florida #83 | +2.2 | 57% | |
| Mon Dec 21 | N |  Iowa #33 | +3.2 | 60% | |
| Tue Dec 29 | vs |  Samford #190 | +22.2 | 96% | |
| Sat Jan 02 | at |  Mississippi State #78 | conf | +5.7 | 67% |
| Tue Jan 05 | vs |  LSU #39 | conf | +8.2 | 74% |
| Sat Jan 09 | at |  Arkansas #25 | conf | -2.3 | 43% |
| Wed Jan 13 | vs |  Ole Miss #61 | conf | +10.6 | 80% |
| Sat Jan 16 | vs |  Florida #1 | conf | -4.7 | 35% |
| Wed Jan 20 | at |  South Carolina #98 | conf | +6.4 | 70% |
| Sat Jan 23 | vs |  Oklahoma #30 | conf | +6.9 | 71% |
| Tue Jan 26 | at |  Missouri #43 | conf | +1.4 | 55% |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs |  Auburn #16 | conf | +3.6 | 61% |
| Sat Feb 06 | at |  Kentucky #22 | conf | -3.5 | 39% |
| Tue Feb 09 | at |  Texas #20 | conf | -3.0 | 40% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs | Arkansas #25 | conf | +5.5 | 67% |
| Tue Feb 16 | vs | Mississippi State #78 | conf | +12.5 | 84% |
| Sat Feb 20 | at |  Tennessee #13 | conf | -5.1 | 34% |
| Tue Feb 23 | at |  Texas A&M #31 | conf | -0.2 | 49% |
| Sat Feb 27 | vs |  Vanderbilt #26 | conf | +6.4 | 69% |
| Wed Mar 03 | vs |  Georgia #32 | conf | +7.7 | 73% |
| Sat Mar 06 | at | Auburn #16 | conf | -4.1 | 37% |
Projected margin is from Alabama's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.