Roster Math

Teams › SWAC · Compare Prairie View A&M with another team

Prairie View A&M

Prairie View A&M returns 74% of last season's minutes and rates #342 on offense and #298 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -17.1 to -2.2.

-9.6
Rating · #341 of 365
-6.3
Offense · #342
-3.3
Defense · #298
-17.1 to -2.2
80% range
0%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
10-18
Projected record · 6 to 15 wins
9-9
Projected in SWAC · 5 to 13 wins

Why we have them here

Prairie View A&M's preseason projection of -9.6 (No. 341 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -4.9, more than the -5.9 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 292 at the end of 2025-26) adds -1.5, more than its neighbours' -2.4; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -3.6. It returns 74% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (76%). The projection leans most on Dontae Horne (+1.0), Jared Harris (+0.1) and Isaiah Foster (-0.4); the newcomer who matters most is Jared Harris, a transfer from Wyoming, at +0.1. Its 80% range, -17.1 to -2.2, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 74% · Transfer 8%

Dontae Horne+1.0
Jared Harris+0.1
Isaiah Foster-0.4
Ryan Bolton Jr.-0.6
Elijah Mitchell-0.6
Hassane Diallo-0.6
Seryee Lewis-0.8
Jannoy Thomas-0.9
Marcel Bryant-0.9
Doug Young-1.6
Keeshawn Mason-1.9
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
961Dontae HorneG6-43ReturningPrairie View A&M28+1.4+1.0
1467Jared HarrisG6-22TransferWyoming15+0.3+0.1
3561Isaiah FosterG6-11ReturningPrairie View A&M10-1.9-0.4
3845Elijah MitchellG6-51ReturningPrairie View A&M15-1.7-0.6
3948Hassane DialloF6-83ReturningPrairie View A&M14-1.9-0.6
4031Ryan Bolton Jr.C6-102ReturningPrairie View A&M10-2.3-0.6
4444Jannoy ThomasG5-111ReturningPrairie View A&M14-2.4-0.9
4532Seryee LewisF6-92ReturningPrairie View A&M10-3.1-0.8
4578Marcel BryantF6-73ReturningPrairie View A&M14-2.7-0.9
5056Doug YoungG6-03ReturningPrairie View A&M19-3.5-1.6
5179Keeshawn MasonF6-82ReturningPrairie View A&M15-5.0-1.9

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Sat Nov 07atUT Rio Grande Valley #191-11.218%
Tue Nov 10atSMU #53-22.14%
Fri Nov 13atVanderbilt #26-25.52%
Mon Nov 16atOhio State #27-24.82%
Wed Nov 25atMarshall #247-10.520%
Sat Nov 28atIowa #33-23.23%
Wed Dec 09atPepperdine #249-9.423%
Fri Dec 11atSan Diego #263-9.024%
Mon Dec 21atTexas #20-27.02%
Tue Dec 29atTexas A&M #31-25.62%
Sat Jan 02vsGrambling #302conf-0.249%
Mon Jan 04vsSouthern #235conf-2.742%
Sat Jan 09atMississippi Valley State #365conf+8.776%
Mon Jan 11atArkansas-Pine Bluff #349conf-0.847%
Sat Jan 16vsJackson State #355conf+4.464%
Mon Jan 18vsAlcorn State #358conf+4.865%
Sat Jan 23atAlabama State #340conf-2.442%
Mon Jan 25atAlabama A&M #343conf-2.841%
Sat Jan 30atTexas Southern #331conf-3.639%
Sat Feb 06vsBethune-Cookman #220conf-3.539%
Mon Feb 08vsFlorida A&M #336conf+1.856%
Sat Feb 13atSouthern #235conf-8.425%
Mon Feb 15atGrambling #302conf-3.738%
Thu Feb 18vsArkansas-Pine Bluff #349conf+3.561%
Mon Feb 22vsMississippi Valley State #365conf+13.586%
Thu Feb 25atJackson State #355conf-0.848%
Thu Feb 25atAlcorn State #358conf-0.249%
Thu Mar 04vsTexas Southern #331conf+1.354%

Projected margin is from Prairie View A&M's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.