Roster Math

Teams › WCC · Compare San Diego with another team

San Diego

San Diego returns 48% of last season's minutes and rates #264 on offense and #254 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -11.9 to +2.5.

-4.7
Rating · #263 of 365
-2.9
Offense · #264
-1.8
Defense · #254
-11.9 to +2.5
80% range
0%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
12-17
Projected record · 7 to 18 wins
6-10
Projected in WCC · 3 to 10 wins

Why we have them here

San Diego's preseason projection of -4.7 (No. 263 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -1.4, more than the -2.7 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 290 at the end of 2025-26) adds -1.3, about its neighbours' -0.8; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -2.2. It returns 48% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (68%). The projection leans most on Davion Hill (+2.5), Adrian McIntyre (+1.2) and Sekou Konneh (+0.1); the newcomer who matters most is Davion Hill, a transfer from Ball State, at +2.5. Its 80% range, -11.9 to +2.5, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 45% · Transfer 48% · Freshman 5% · Other newcomer 3%

Davion Hill+2.5
Adrian McIntyre+1.2
Sekou Konneh+0.1
Marqui Worthy Jr.-0.2
Brannon Martinsen-0.2
Nick Del Bosque-0.2
Josh Hecht-0.3
Piotr Winkowski-0.3
Boden Grant-0.3
Tim Moore Jr.-0.3
Vuk Boskovic-0.3
Caleb Versher-0.4
Brandon Benjamin-0.4
Emmanuel Callas-0.7
Alejandro Aviles-0.7
Dusty Stromer-0.8
Antonio Munoz-1.2
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
341Davion HillG6-21TransferBall State24+4.2+2.5
788Adrian McIntyreG6-33ReturningSan Diego23+2.1+1.2
1496Sekou KonnehF6-91TransferMilwaukee12+0.3+0.1
1971Marqui Worthy Jr.G6-43TransferUC Riverside26-0.3-0.2
2461Brannon MartinsenF6-60FreshmanHigh school9-1.0-0.2
2514Vuk BoskovicF6-71ReturningSan Diego18-0.7-0.3
2733Tim Moore Jr.F6-62ReturningSan Diego13-1.1-0.3
3403Piotr WinkowskiC6-101ReturningSan Diego6-2.3-0.3
3422Boden GrantF6-40Other newcomer6-2.2-0.3
3534Nick Del BosqueG6-02ReturningSan Diego3-3.4-0.2
3943Josh HechtG6-23ReturningSan Diego3-3.9-0.3
4017Brandon BenjaminG6-61ReturningSan Diego6-3.0-0.4
4038Caleb VersherG6-31ReturningSan Diego5-3.3-0.4
4221Dusty StromerG6-63TransferGrand Canyon17-1.9-0.8
4638Alejandro AvilesF6-101ReturningSan Diego8-3.7-0.7
4771Antonio MunozF6-61TransferGrambling17-2.7-1.2
4778Emmanuel CallasG6-53ReturningSan Diego6-4.8-0.7

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Fri Nov 06vsTarleton State #257+5.066%
Tue Nov 10atColorado #85-16.110%
Fri Nov 13vsChicago State #337+8.475%
Wed Nov 18vsUC Riverside #252+4.664%
Sat Nov 21NUC Irvine #105-6.430%
Sun Nov 22vsFordham #125-0.150%
Sat Nov 28vsNorthern Colorado #128+0.150%
Tue Dec 01vsHawai'i #179+2.458%
Sat Dec 05atWyoming #121-11.118%
Tue Dec 08vsUSC #35-8.625%
Fri Dec 11vsPrairie View A&M #341+9.076%
Sun Dec 20atArizona State #52-18.17%
Tue Dec 22vsCal State Bakersfield #328+8.174%
Sat Jan 02atSaint Mary's #60conf-13.414%
Wed Jan 06atLoyola Marymount #170conf-6.032%
Sat Jan 09vsPortland #339conf+5.667%
Wed Jan 13vsSanta Clara #63conf-8.325%
Sat Jan 16vsDenver #240conf+1.254%
Wed Jan 20atSeattle U #111conf-8.924%
Wed Jan 27atPepperdine #249conf-2.542%
Sat Jan 30vsSan Francisco #189conf-0.648%
Wed Feb 03atPacific #175conf-4.436%
Sat Feb 06atSanta Clara #63conf-13.414%
Wed Feb 10vsLoyola Marymount #170conf-1.246%
Sat Feb 13vsSeattle U #111conf-3.937%
Wed Feb 17vsPepperdine #249conf+1.454%
Sat Feb 20atPortland #339conf+0.853%
Wed Feb 24vsPacific #175conf-1.047%
Sat Feb 27atDenver #240conf-2.343%

Projected margin is from San Diego's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.