Teams › WCC · Compare Portland with another team
Portland
Portland returns 79% of last season's minutes and rates #333 on offense and #310 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -16.9 to -2.2.
Why we have them here
Portland's preseason projection of -9.6 (No. 339 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -4.8, more than the -5.8 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 296 at the end of 2025-26) adds -1.5, more than its neighbours' -2.3; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -3.6. It returns 79% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (74%). The projection leans most on Timo George (+0.9), Dante Censori-Hercules (-0.4) and Preston Lee (-0.4); the newcomer who matters most is Marchelo Moreira, a newcomer from outside Division I, at -0.5. Its 80% range, -16.9 to -2.2, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 69% · Transfer 16% · Other newcomer 10%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 883 | Timo George | F | 6-8 | 1 | Returning | Portland | 18 | +1.9 | +0.9 |
| 2583 | Dante Censori-Hercules | G | 6-7 | 1 | Returning | Portland | 19 | -0.8 | -0.4 |
| 3625 | James O'Donnell | F | 6-10 | 2 | Returning | Portland | 21 | -1.3 | -0.7 |
| 3625 | Garrett Nuckolls | G | 6-6 | 1 | Returning | Portland | 23 | -1.2 | -0.7 |
| 3777 | Preston Lee | G | 5-11 | 1 | Returning | Portland | 7 | -2.5 | -0.4 |
| 3901 | Marchelo Moreira | F | 6-3 | 0 | Other newcomer | 10 | -2.2 | -0.5 | |
| 4107 | Carlin Briggs | F | 6-7 | 0 | Other newcomer | 10 | -2.4 | -0.6 | |
| 4256 | Vito Perkovic | F | 6-10 | 1 | Transfer | East Carolina | 9 | -2.8 | -0.6 |
| 4421 | Riley Parker | G | 6-2 | 2 | Returning | Portland | 14 | -2.4 | -0.8 |
| 4630 | Kelson Gebbers | G | 6-7 | 2 | Returning | Portland | 8 | -3.8 | -0.7 |
| 4650 | Jaxon Olvera | G | 6-5 | 2 | Transfer | Louisiana | 23 | -2.2 | -1.2 |
| 4916 | NaVaughn Long | G | 6-6 | 1 | Returning | Portland | 10 | -4.0 | -1.0 |
| 5160 | Mikah Ballew | G | 6-5 | 2 | Returning | Portland | 19 | -4.2 | -2.0 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri Nov 06 | N |  UT Arlington #211 | -5.3 | 34% | |
| Mon Nov 09 | at |  Hawai'i #179 | -12.3 | 16% | |
| Fri Nov 13 | vs |  East Texas A&M #319 | +4.9 | 65% | |
| Wed Nov 18 | at |  Colorado #85 | -19.7 | 6% | |
| Sat Nov 21 | vs |  Fordham #125 | -2.8 | 41% | |
| Sun Nov 22 | N |  California Baptist #157 | -7.1 | 28% | |
| Sun Nov 29 | at |  Stanford #69 | -19.8 | 5% | |
| Tue Dec 01 | at |  UC Davis #255 | -8.9 | 24% | |
| Thu Dec 10 | vs |  Lamar #238 | +1.5 | 55% | |
| Sun Dec 13 | vs |  Eastern Washington #146 | -1.8 | 44% | |
| Wed Dec 16 | at |  Utah #72 | -20.4 | 5% | |
| Sat Dec 19 | vs |  Wyoming #121 | -2.9 | 41% | |
| Tue Dec 22 | at |  Long Beach State #278 | -8.1 | 26% | |
| Sat Jan 02 | vs |  Pepperdine #249 | conf | -1.5 | 45% |
| Wed Jan 06 | vs |  Pacific #175 | conf | -3.6 | 38% |
| Sat Jan 09 | at |  San Diego #263 | conf | -5.6 | 33% |
| Wed Jan 13 | at |  Saint Mary's #60 | conf | -16.9 | 9% |
| Sat Jan 16 | vs |  San Francisco #189 | conf | -3.4 | 39% |
| Wed Jan 20 | at |  Denver #240 | conf | -5.8 | 32% |
| Sat Jan 23 | at |  Seattle U #111 | conf | -12.5 | 16% |
| Wed Jan 27 | vs |  Santa Clara #63 | conf | -11.2 | 18% |
| Wed Feb 03 | vs | Saint Mary's #60 | conf | -10.9 | 19% |
| Sat Feb 06 | vs |  Loyola Marymount #170 | conf | -4.0 | 37% |
| Wed Feb 10 | at | Pacific #175 | conf | -7.7 | 26% |
| Sat Feb 13 | at | San Francisco #189 | conf | -8.2 | 25% |
| Wed Feb 17 | vs | Denver #240 | conf | -1.6 | 45% |
| Sat Feb 20 | vs | San Diego #263 | conf | -0.8 | 47% |
| Wed Feb 24 | at | Pepperdine #249 | conf | -6.0 | 31% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at | Loyola Marymount #170 | conf | -9.5 | 22% |
Projected margin is from Portland's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.