Roster Math

Teams › Big West · Compare UC Irvine with another team

UC Irvine

UC Irvine returns 75% of last season's minutes and rates #201 on offense and #45 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -3.1 to +11.6.

+4.3
Rating · #105 of 365
-1.0
Offense · #201
+5.3
Defense · #45
-3.1 to +11.6
80% range
<1%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
18-12
Projected record · 13 to 24 wins
14-8
Projected in Big West · 9 to 18 wins

Why we have them here

UC Irvine's preseason projection of +4.3 (No. 105 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +1.6, about the +2.2 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 96 at the end of 2025-26) adds +0.5, about its neighbours' +0.9; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +1.8. It returns 75% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (56%). The projection leans most on Jovan Jester Jr. (+1.9), Nils Cooper (+1.7) and Harrison Carrington (+1.2); the newcomer who matters most is Nils Cooper, a transfer from UC Davis, at +1.7. Its 80% range, -3.1 to +11.6, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 52% · Transfer 18% · Freshman 7% · Other newcomer 23%

Jovan Jester Jr.+1.9
Nils Cooper+1.7
Harrison Carrington+1.2
Tama Isaac+0.6
Olivier Rioux+0.3
Josiah Johnson+0.0
Torian Lee-0.2
Luke Isaak-0.3
Joshua Palmer-0.3
Bryce Goldman-0.3
Mason Hodges-0.3
Tishan Ahir-0.4
Nes Emeneke-0.5
Ben Egbo-0.7
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
471Jovan Jester Jr.G6-41ReturningUC Irvine22+3.5+1.9
589Nils CooperG6-63TransferUC Davis26+2.7+1.7
736Harrison CarringtonF6-73ReturningUC Irvine21+2.3+1.2
1092Tama IsaacG6-21ReturningUC Irvine26+1.0+0.6
1210Olivier RiouxC7-91TransferFlorida10+1.1+0.3
1624Josiah JohnsonG6-30FreshmanHigh school15+0.1+0.0
2416Torian LeeF6-02Other newcomer9-1.0-0.2
2642Luke IsaakF6-30Other newcomer9-1.1-0.3
2687Joshua PalmerF6-40Other newcomer9-1.2-0.3
2865Bryce GoldmanF6-60Other newcomer9-1.3-0.3
2947Mason HodgesF6-70Other newcomer9-1.4-0.3
3224Tishan AhirG6-02ReturningUC Irvine9-1.6-0.4
3344Nes EmenekeF6-101ReturningUC Irvine14-1.4-0.5
4216Ben EgboG6-42ReturningUC Irvine11-2.4-0.7

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Sat Nov 07vsSan José State #187+8.977%
Tue Nov 17atStanford #69-10.121%
Sat Nov 21NSan Diego #263+6.470%
Sun Nov 22NLoyola Marymount #170+3.260%
Sat Nov 28atSeattle U #111-5.832%
Thu Dec 03vsUC Riverside #252conf+8.174%
Sat Dec 05vsUC San Diego #77conf-0.349%
Fri Dec 11vsNorthern Iowa #88+3.561%
Fri Dec 18vsNew Mexico #50+0.050%
Sun Dec 20atHawai'i #179-2.243%
Tue Dec 29vsFresno State #221+10.279%
Thu Dec 31atLong Beach State #278conf+5.166%
Sat Jan 02atCal State Fullerton #236conf+3.661%
Thu Jan 07vsSacramento State #199conf+6.971%
Sat Jan 09vsUtah Valley #112conf+2.859%
Thu Jan 14atCalifornia Baptist #157conf+0.251%
Sat Jan 16atUC Riverside #252conf+3.160%
Thu Jan 21vsCal State Fullerton #236conf+8.475%
Sat Jan 23vsLong Beach State #278conf+9.377%
Thu Jan 28atCal Poly #223conf+2.959%
Sat Jan 30atUC Santa Barbara #103conf-2.542%
Thu Feb 04vsCal State Bakersfield #328conf+11.883%
Sat Feb 06vsCal State Northridge #227conf+7.873%
Thu Feb 11atUtah Valley #112conf-3.140%
Sat Feb 13atSacramento State #199conf+1.856%
Thu Feb 18vsCalifornia Baptist #157conf+4.865%
Sat Feb 20atUC San Diego #77conf-4.735%
Thu Feb 25vsUC Santa Barbara #103conf+2.257%
Sat Feb 27vsCal Poly #223conf+7.773%
Thu Mar 04atCal State Northridge #227conf+2.859%
Sat Mar 06atCal State Bakersfield #328conf+5.567%

Projected margin is from UC Irvine's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.