Roster Math

Teams › ACC · Compare Notre Dame with another team

Notre Dame

Notre Dame returns 42% of last season's minutes and rates #79 on offense and #76 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +1.4 to +15.8.

+8.6
Rating · #75 of 365
+4.7
Offense · #79
+3.9
Defense · #76
+1.4 to +15.8
80% range
4%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
17-13
Projected record · 12 to 21 wins
8-10
Projected in ACC · 5 to 12 wins

Why we have them here

Notre Dame's preseason projection of +8.6 (No. 75 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +6.0, more than the +4.7 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 115 at the end of 2025-26) adds +0.8, about its neighbours' +1.3; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +1.4. It returns 42% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (42%). The projection leans most on Logan Duncomb (+4.7), Braeden Shrewsberry (+3.4) and Braeden Smith (+2.2); the newcomer who matters most is Logan Duncomb, a transfer from Winthrop, at +4.7. Its 80% range, +1.4 to +15.8, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 37% · Transfer 46% · Freshman 6% · Other newcomer 10%

Logan Duncomb+4.7
Braeden Shrewsberry+3.4
Braeden Smith+2.2
Ethan Roberts+1.6
Brady Koehler+1.0
Bryce Dortch+0.1
Jonathan Sanderson+0.1
Devin Brown+0.0
Gan-Erdene Solongo+0.0
Matthew MacLellan-0.1
Jake Burow-0.1
Nick Shrewsberry-0.1
Luke Devine-0.2
Brady Stevens-0.2
Yoro Diallo-0.2
Tommy Ahneman-0.2
Mark Zackery IV-0.2
Logan Imes-0.2
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
60Logan DuncombC6-105TransferWinthrop23+8.1+4.7
204Braeden ShrewsberryG6-43ReturningNotre Dame28+4.8+3.4
319Braeden SmithG6-04TransferGonzaga17+5.2+2.2
603Ethan RobertsF6-54TransferPennsylvania23+2.8+1.6
809Brady KoehlerF6-101ReturningNotre Dame16+2.4+1.0
1411Bryce DortchF6-92TransferRutgers12+0.5+0.1
1457Jonathan SandersonG6-20FreshmanHigh school10+0.4+0.1
1624Devin BrownG6-61TransferDavidson18+0.0+0.0
1822Gan-Erdene SolongoC7-00FreshmanHigh school2-0.6+0.0
2077Matthew MacLellanF6-91ReturningNotre Dame5-0.8-0.1
2257Logan ImesG6-43ReturningNotre Dame16-0.6-0.2
2264Jake BurowF6-30Other newcomer4-1.2-0.1
2347Nick ShrewsberryF6-50Other newcomer4-1.4-0.1
2446Luke DevineF6-70Other newcomer4-1.5-0.2
2581Yoro DialloF6-91Other newcomer4-1.6-0.2
2606Brady StevensG6-41ReturningNotre Dame4-1.8-0.2
2662Tommy AhnemanF6-100Other newcomer5-1.7-0.2
2815Mark Zackery IVG5-111ReturningNotre Dame5-1.8-0.2

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Sun Nov 01NVillanova #24-6.031%
Thu Nov 05vsMercyhurst #239+13.586%
Mon Nov 09vsEastern Illinois #324+16.992%
Wed Nov 11vsSouth Carolina State #360+21.496%
Tue Nov 17NFlorida #1-15.710%
Tue Nov 24vsCentral Michigan #259+14.488%
Sat Nov 28vsStonehill #354+20.095%
Wed Dec 02vsVanderbilt #26+0.551%
Sat Dec 05vsTCU #51+3.360%
Tue Dec 08vsLong Island University #210+12.885%
Sat Dec 12vsOhio State #27+0.552%
Mon Dec 21vsLe Moyne #217+13.286%
Wed Dec 30vsStanford #69conf+2.257%
Wed Jan 06vsVirginia Tech #45conf-0.449%
Sat Jan 09atGeorgia Tech #140conf+2.759%
Tue Jan 12atWake Forest #76conf-3.040%
Sat Jan 16vsCalifornia #115conf+6.169%
Wed Jan 20vsPittsburgh #68conf+1.956%
Sat Jan 23atDuke #2conf-15.411%
Tue Jan 26atFlorida State #90conf-1.745%
Sat Jan 30vsSMU #53conf+0.351%
Tue Feb 02vsNorth Carolina #54conf+0.552%
Sat Feb 06atBoston College #114conf+1.053%
Sat Feb 13atVirginia #19conf-11.019%
Wed Feb 17vsWake Forest #76conf+2.859%
Sat Feb 20atMiami #18conf-10.121%
Wed Feb 24atNC State #36conf-6.929%
Sat Feb 27vsSyracuse #71conf+2.357%
Tue Mar 02atClemson #46conf-5.533%
Sat Mar 06vsBoston College #114conf+6.069%

Projected margin is from Notre Dame's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.