Teams › NEC · Compare Mercyhurst with another team
Mercyhurst
Mercyhurst returns 90% of last season's minutes and rates #285 on offense and #194 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -10.9 to +3.8.
Why we have them here
Mercyhurst's preseason projection of -3.6 (No. 239 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -2.3, about the -2.6 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 251 at the end of 2025-26) adds -0.9, about its neighbours' -0.6; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -0.6. It returns 90% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (65%). The projection leans most on Qadir Martin (+2.4), Jake Lemelman (+0.7) and Deshaun Jackson Jr. (+0.6). Its 80% range, -10.9 to +3.8, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 90%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 428 | Qadir Martin | F | 6-5 | 2 | Returning | Mercyhurst | 28 | +3.4 | +2.4 |
| 1062 | Jake Lemelman | G | 6-2 | 2 | Returning | Mercyhurst | 26 | +1.1 | +0.7 |
| 1104 | Deshaun Jackson Jr. | G | 6-2 | 2 | Returning | Mercyhurst | 23 | +1.0 | +0.6 |
| 3422 | Kaden Fuhrmann | G | 6-5 | 2 | Returning | Mercyhurst | 14 | -1.4 | -0.5 |
| 4122 | Sean Lang | G | 6-3 | 2 | Returning | Mercyhurst | 15 | -2.0 | -0.7 |
| 4362 | Or Faran | G | 6-5 | 1 | Returning | Mercyhurst | 8 | -3.1 | -0.6 |
| 4380 | Chris Leman | F | 6-9 | 1 | Returning | Mercyhurst | 8 | -3.2 | -0.6 |
| 4391 | Cameron Johnson | F | 6-5 | 1 | Returning | Mercyhurst | 14 | -2.4 | -0.8 |
| 4538 | Brady Conner | G | 6-6 | 1 | Returning | Mercyhurst | 8 | -3.5 | -0.7 |
| 4622 | James Thomas | F | 6-6 | 2 | Returning | Mercyhurst | 12 | -3.0 | -0.9 |
| 4807 | Vladimir Pavlovic | G | 6-2 | 3 | Returning | Mercyhurst | 7 | -4.5 | -0.8 |
| 5014 | Christian Gamble | G | 6-0 | 2 | Returning | Mercyhurst | 19 | -3.3 | -1.5 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | at |  Marquette #47 | -18.0 | 7% | |
| Thu Nov 05 | at |  Notre Dame #75 | -13.5 | 14% | |
| Thu Nov 12 | at |  Penn State #89 | -13.5 | 14% | |
| Sun Nov 15 | at |  James Madison #147 | -8.6 | 24% | |
| Fri Nov 20 | at |  Canisius #346 | -0.1 | 50% | |
| Sat Nov 21 | N |  Western Illinois #362 | +8.5 | 76% | |
| Sun Nov 22 | N |  UAlbany #293 | +1.9 | 56% | |
| Tue Dec 01 | at |  West Virginia #48 | -16.5 | 9% | |
| Sat Dec 05 | at |  Morgan State #348 | -0.8 | 48% | |
| Mon Dec 07 | at |  Coppin State #364 | +3.7 | 62% | |
| Sat Dec 12 | at |  Syracuse #71 | -14.9 | 11% | |
| Wed Dec 16 | at |  Northwestern #79 | -13.6 | 13% | |
| Sat Dec 19 | at |  St. Bonaventure #126 | -9.3 | 22% | |
| Sat Jan 02 | at |  New Haven #326 | conf | +1.7 | 56% |
| Mon Jan 04 | at |  Le Moyne #217 | conf | -3.6 | 38% |
| Fri Jan 08 | vs |  Stonehill #354 | conf | +9.2 | 77% |
| Sun Jan 10 | vs |  Central Connecticut #316 | conf | +5.9 | 69% |
| Thu Jan 14 | at |  Wagner #291 | conf | +0.0 | 50% |
| Sat Jan 16 | at |  Fairleigh Dickinson #334 | conf | +1.2 | 54% |
| Thu Jan 21 | at |  Long Island University #210 | conf | -3.8 | 38% |
| Sat Jan 23 | vs | Le Moyne #217 | conf | +2.3 | 57% |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs |  Chicago State #337 | conf | +7.0 | 72% |
| Thu Feb 04 | vs | Long Island University #210 | conf | +2.1 | 57% |
| Thu Feb 11 | at | Stonehill #354 | conf | +3.9 | 63% |
| Sat Feb 13 | at | Central Connecticut #316 | conf | +1.3 | 54% |
| Wed Feb 17 | at | Chicago State #337 | conf | +1.8 | 56% |
| Sat Feb 20 | vs | New Haven #326 | conf | +6.2 | 69% |
| Thu Feb 25 | vs | Fairleigh Dickinson #334 | conf | +6.7 | 71% |
| Sat Feb 27 | vs | Wagner #291 | conf | +4.9 | 66% |
Projected margin is from Mercyhurst's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.