Roster Math

Teams › NEC · Compare Le Moyne with another team

Le Moyne

Le Moyne returns 86% of last season's minutes and rates #219 on offense and #215 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -9.7 to +5.1.

-2.3
Rating · #217 of 365
-1.5
Offense · #219
-0.8
Defense · #215
-9.7 to +5.1
80% range
0%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
15-14
Projected record · 10 to 20 wins
10-6
Projected in NEC · 6 to 13 wins

Why we have them here

Le Moyne's preseason projection of -2.3 (No. 217 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -0.5, more than the -1.4 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 264 at the end of 2025-26) adds -1.0, about its neighbours' -0.3; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -1.0. It returns 86% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (63%). The projection leans most on Shilo Jackson (+2.5), Trent Mosquera (+2.0) and Tennessee Rainwater (+1.1); the newcomer who matters most is Damien King, a transfer from UT Martin, at +1.0. Its 80% range, -9.7 to +5.1, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 82% · Transfer 14% · Other newcomer 4%

Shilo Jackson+2.5
Trent Mosquera+2.0
Tennessee Rainwater+1.1
Damien King+1.0
Trevor Roe-0.2
Sam Donnelly-0.3
Josiah Lee-0.3
Kaelin Thomas-0.3
Nate Fouts-0.4
Isaac Nyakundi-0.7
Eli Greenberg-0.7
Jayden Teat-0.8
Ametri Moss-1.1
Samuel Hincapie-1.2
Jakob Blakley-1.6
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
387Shilo JacksonF6-93ReturningLe Moyne27+3.7+2.5
519Trent MosqueraG6-53ReturningLe Moyne28+2.9+2.0
808Damien KingG6-41TransferUT Martin17+2.3+1.0
847Tennessee RainwaterG6-63ReturningLe Moyne23+1.8+1.1
2312Trevor RoeF6-93ReturningLe Moyne10-0.8-0.2
3247Josiah LeeG6-21ReturningLe Moyne6-2.0-0.3
3403Sam DonnellyG6-22ReturningLe Moyne4-2.6-0.3
3684Nate FoutsF6-83Other newcomer7-2.2-0.4
3779Kaelin ThomasG6-23ReturningLe Moyne4-3.1-0.3
4174Eli GreenbergG6-41ReturningLe Moyne13-2.2-0.7
4446Jayden TeatG6-23TransferSacramento State12-2.6-0.8
4517Isaac NyakundiF6-92ReturningLe Moyne8-3.3-0.7
4638Ametri MossG6-03ReturningLe Moyne17-2.5-1.1
4956Samuel HincapieG6-51ReturningLe Moyne13-3.8-1.2
5171Jakob BlakleyG6-02ReturningLe Moyne12-5.5-1.6

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02atNebraska #12-22.34%
Thu Nov 05atCreighton #41-17.58%
Sat Nov 14vsManhattan #309+9.678%
Tue Nov 17atEvansville #317-2.442%
Fri Nov 20atMissouri #43-16.79%
Fri Nov 27NMaine #318+4.063%
Sat Nov 28NNiagara #329+4.264%
Sun Nov 29atLafayette #342+0.953%
Thu Dec 03vsBinghamton #330+10.380%
Sun Dec 06atClemson #46-16.010%
Sun Dec 13atFairfield #248-4.336%
Fri Dec 18atSaint Peter's #289-2.841%
Mon Dec 21atNotre Dame #75-13.214%
Sat Jan 02atLong Island University #210conf-3.140%
Mon Jan 04vsMercyhurst #239conf+3.662%
Fri Jan 08vsCentral Connecticut #316conf+6.670%
Sun Jan 10vsStonehill #354conf+10.179%
Thu Jan 14atFairleigh Dickinson #334conf+2.157%
Sat Jan 16atWagner #291conf+0.953%
Sat Jan 23atMercyhurst #239conf-2.343%
Thu Jan 28vsChicago State #337conf+7.874%
Wed Feb 03atNew Haven #326conf+2.759%
Sat Feb 06vsLong Island University #210conf+2.658%
Thu Feb 11atCentral Connecticut #316conf+2.357%
Sat Feb 13atStonehill #354conf+5.066%
Thu Feb 18vsNew Haven #326conf+6.971%
Sat Feb 20atChicago State #337conf+2.759%
Thu Feb 25vsWagner #291conf+5.667%
Sat Feb 27vsFairleigh Dickinson #334conf+7.573%

Projected margin is from Le Moyne's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.