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Lafayette
Lafayette returns 79% of last season's minutes and rates #357 on offense and #239 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -17.3 to -2.6.
Why we have them here
Lafayette's preseason projection of -9.9 (No. 342 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -6.9, less than the -5.9 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 321 at the end of 2025-26) adds -2.1, about its neighbours' -2.4; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -1.3. It returns 79% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (76%). The projection leans most on Shareef Jackson (-0.2), KaiMani Murdock (-0.6) and Malik Rasul (-0.7); the newcomer who matters most is Beckett Currie, a newcomer from outside Division I, at -0.7. Its 80% range, -17.3 to -2.6, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 72% · Other newcomer 7%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1965 | Shareef Jackson | F | 6-8 | 1 | Returning | Lafayette | 24 | -0.3 | -0.2 |
| 3698 | KaiMani Murdock | G | 6-6 | 1 | Returning | Lafayette | 16 | -1.6 | -0.6 |
| 4162 | Beckett Currie | F | 5-11 | 0 | Other newcomer | 13 | -2.1 | -0.7 | |
| 4254 | Malik Rasul | F | 6-7 | 2 | Returning | Lafayette | 11 | -2.4 | -0.7 |
| 4680 | Luke Azzinaro | F | 6-5 | 1 | Returning | Lafayette | 8 | -3.7 | -0.8 |
| 4845 | Joshua Wyche | F | 6-7 | 3 | Returning | Lafayette | 11 | -3.6 | -1.0 |
| 4856 | Misha Bednostin | C | 6-11 | 3 | Returning | Lafayette | 14 | -3.2 | -1.1 |
| 4866 | Ashton Wallace | G | 6-3 | 1 | Returning | Lafayette | 9 | -4.1 | -0.9 |
| 5015 | Mark Butler | G | 5-10 | 3 | Returning | Lafayette | 30 | -2.6 | -1.9 |
| 5089 | Folabomi Fayemi | G | 6-4 | 2 | Returning | Lafayette | 10 | -5.2 | -1.2 |
| 5136 | Luke Bevilacqua | F | 6-11 | 1 | Returning | Lafayette | 12 | -4.9 | -1.5 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | at | -17.8 | 7% | ||
| Sat Nov 07 | at | -13.9 | 13% | ||
| Tue Nov 10 | vs | -7.0 | 28% | ||
| Sat Nov 14 | at | -13.7 | 13% | ||
| Wed Nov 18 | vs | +3.5 | 61% | ||
| Sat Nov 21 | at | -19.5 | 6% | ||
| Fri Nov 27 | vs | +3.3 | 61% | ||
| Sat Nov 28 | vs | +3.1 | 60% | ||
| Sun Nov 29 | vs | -0.9 | 47% | ||
| Fri Dec 04 | at | -5.9 | 32% | ||
| Mon Dec 07 | vs | -3.4 | 39% | ||
| Sat Dec 19 | N | -11.3 | 18% | ||
| Mon Dec 21 | at | -13.7 | 13% | ||
| Wed Dec 30 | at | conf | -8.6 | 24% | |
| Sat Jan 02 | vs | conf | -4.4 | 36% | |
| Wed Jan 06 | vs | conf | +1.8 | 56% | |
| Sat Jan 09 | at | conf | -8.5 | 24% | |
| Wed Jan 13 | vs | conf | -3.3 | 39% | |
| Sun Jan 17 | at | conf | -2.3 | 43% | |
| Wed Jan 20 | at | conf | -0.6 | 48% | |
| Sat Jan 23 | vs | conf | -4.8 | 35% | |
| Wed Jan 27 | at | conf | -6.9 | 29% | |
| Sat Jan 30 | at | conf | -5.9 | 32% | |
| Mon Feb 01 | vs | conf | +2.8 | 59% | |
| Mon Feb 01 | vs | conf | +2.8 | 59% | |
| Sat Feb 06 | at | conf | -8.2 | 25% | |
| Wed Feb 10 | vs | conf | -0.2 | 49% | |
| Sat Feb 13 | at | conf | -2.9 | 41% | |
| Wed Feb 17 | vs | conf | -5.1 | 34% | |
| Sat Feb 20 | vs | conf | -2.7 | 41% | |
| Wed Feb 24 | at | conf | -0.2 | 49% | |
| Sat Feb 27 | vs | conf | -0.2 | 49% |
Projected margin is from Lafayette's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.