Roster Math

Teams › Patriot · Compare Lafayette with another team

Lafayette

Lafayette returns 79% of last season's minutes and rates #357 on offense and #239 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -17.3 to -2.6.

-9.9
Rating · #342 of 365
-8.5
Offense · #357
-1.4
Defense · #239
-17.3 to -2.6
80% range
0%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
12-20
Projected record · 6 to 17 wins
8-11
Projected in Patriot · 4 to 12 wins

Why we have them here

Lafayette's preseason projection of -9.9 (No. 342 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -6.9, less than the -5.9 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 321 at the end of 2025-26) adds -2.1, about its neighbours' -2.4; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -1.3. It returns 79% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (76%). The projection leans most on Shareef Jackson (-0.2), KaiMani Murdock (-0.6) and Malik Rasul (-0.7); the newcomer who matters most is Beckett Currie, a newcomer from outside Division I, at -0.7. Its 80% range, -17.3 to -2.6, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 72% · Other newcomer 7%

Shareef Jackson-0.2
KaiMani Murdock-0.6
Malik Rasul-0.7
Beckett Currie-0.7
Luke Azzinaro-0.8
Ashton Wallace-0.9
Joshua Wyche-1.0
Misha Bednostin-1.1
Folabomi Fayemi-1.2
Luke Bevilacqua-1.5
Mark Butler-1.9
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
1965Shareef JacksonF6-81ReturningLafayette24-0.3-0.2
3698KaiMani MurdockG6-61ReturningLafayette16-1.6-0.6
4162Beckett CurrieF5-110Other newcomer13-2.1-0.7
4254Malik RasulF6-72ReturningLafayette11-2.4-0.7
4680Luke AzzinaroF6-51ReturningLafayette8-3.7-0.8
4845Joshua WycheF6-73ReturningLafayette11-3.6-1.0
4856Misha BednostinC6-113ReturningLafayette14-3.2-1.1
4866Ashton WallaceG6-31ReturningLafayette9-4.1-0.9
5015Mark ButlerG5-103ReturningLafayette30-2.6-1.9
5089Folabomi FayemiG6-42ReturningLafayette10-5.2-1.2
5136Luke BevilacquaF6-111ReturningLafayette12-4.9-1.5

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02atButler #86-17.87%
Sat Nov 07atSaint Joseph's #129-13.913%
Tue Nov 10vsPenn State #89-7.028%
Sat Nov 14atSt. Bonaventure #126-13.713%
Wed Nov 18vsBinghamton #330+3.561%
Sat Nov 21atSyracuse #71-19.56%
Fri Nov 27vsNiagara #329+3.361%
Sat Nov 28vsMaine #318+3.160%
Sun Nov 29vsLe Moyne #217-0.947%
Fri Dec 04atFairleigh Dickinson #334-5.932%
Mon Dec 07vsPennsylvania #144-3.439%
Sat Dec 19NPenn State #89-11.318%
Mon Dec 21atRichmond #136-13.713%
Wed Dec 30atNavy #174conf-8.624%
Sat Jan 02vsColgate #197conf-4.436%
Wed Jan 06vsLoyola Maryland #344conf+1.856%
Sat Jan 09atAmerican University #188conf-8.524%
Wed Jan 13vsBoston University #230conf-3.339%
Sun Jan 17atArmy #314conf-2.343%
Wed Jan 20atLoyola Maryland #344conf-0.648%
Sat Jan 23vsAmerican University #188conf-4.835%
Wed Jan 27atBoston University #230conf-6.929%
Sat Jan 30atLehigh #256conf-5.932%
Mon Feb 01vsHoly Cross #352conf+2.859%
Mon Feb 01vsHoly Cross #352conf+2.859%
Sat Feb 06atColgate #197conf-8.225%
Wed Feb 10vsArmy #314conf-0.249%
Sat Feb 13atBucknell #313conf-2.941%
Wed Feb 17vsNavy #174conf-5.134%
Sat Feb 20vsLehigh #256conf-2.741%
Wed Feb 24atHoly Cross #352conf-0.249%
Sat Feb 27vsBucknell #313conf-0.249%

Projected margin is from Lafayette's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.