Roster Math

Teams › A-10 · Compare Saint Joseph's with another team

Saint Joseph's

Saint Joseph's returns 55% of last season's minutes and rates #180 on offense and #91 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -5.0 to +9.9.

+2.5
Rating · #129 of 365
-0.4
Offense · #180
+2.9
Defense · #91
-5.0 to +9.9
80% range
<1%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
16-13
Projected record · 10 to 21 wins
8-10
Projected in A-10 · 5 to 12 wins

Why we have them here

Saint Joseph's's preseason projection of +2.5 (No. 129 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +0.1, less than the +1.6 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 144 at the end of 2025-26) adds +0.2, about its neighbours' +0.4; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +1.9. It returns 55% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (51%). The projection leans most on Jaiden Glover-Toscano (+2.6), Austin Williford (+0.9) and Logan Carey (+0.5); the newcomer who matters most is Logan Carey, a transfer from Maine, at +0.5. Its 80% range, -5.0 to +9.9, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 50% · Transfer 20% · Freshman 6% · Other newcomer 10%

Jaiden Glover-Toscano+2.6
Austin Williford+0.9
Logan Carey+0.5
Khaafiq Myers+0.3
Sean Logan-0.3
Owen Verna-0.3
Billy Rayer-0.3
BJ Ranson-0.5
Gavin Marrs-0.5
Will Lange-0.5
Mekai Johnson-0.5
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
375Jaiden Glover-ToscanoG6-62ReturningSaint Joseph's28+3.6+2.6
979Austin WillifordG6-41ReturningSaint Joseph's26+1.3+0.9
1183Logan CareyG6-33TransferMaine24+0.8+0.5
1287Khaafiq MyersG5-101ReturningSaint Joseph's19+0.6+0.3
2433Sean LoganF6-104TransferDavidson17-0.7-0.3
2939Owen VernaF6-30Other newcomer10-1.4-0.3
3137Billy RayerG5-112ReturningSaint Joseph's8-1.7-0.3
3491BJ RansonG6-30FreshmanHigh school11-1.6-0.5
3689Gavin MarrsF7-03Other newcomer10-1.9-0.5
3893Will LangeG6-43ReturningSaint Joseph's8-2.3-0.5
3901Mekai JohnsonG6-52ReturningSaint Joseph's9-2.2-0.5

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Wed Nov 04vsLongwood #195+8.575%
Sat Nov 07vsLafayette #342+13.987%
Wed Nov 11NSouth Florida #83-4.038%
Sat Nov 14vsPennsylvania #144+6.570%
Tue Nov 17vsWagner #291+11.582%
Fri Nov 20atDrexel #254-1.445%
Sat Nov 28atMonmouth #216-2.542%
Tue Dec 08vsBoston University #230+9.077%
Wed Dec 16vsMaryland Eastern Shore #356+15.790%
Sat Dec 19vsCoppin State #364+19.494%
Tue Dec 22NPenn State #89-2.941%
Wed Dec 30vsRhode Island #148conf+3.361%
Sat Jan 02atGeorge Washington #119conf-3.539%
Wed Jan 06atSt. Bonaventure #126conf-2.343%
Sat Jan 09vsGeorge Mason #107conf+1.354%
Wed Jan 13atFordham #125conf-1.944%
Mon Jan 18vsVCU #44conf-5.034%
Sat Jan 23vsSaint Louis #56conf-3.738%
Wed Jan 27atDavidson #132conf-2.143%
Sat Jan 30atGeorge Mason #107conf-4.336%
Sat Feb 06vsLa Salle #218conf+5.668%
Tue Feb 09vsFordham #125conf+2.157%
Fri Feb 12atSaint Louis #56conf-9.423%
Tue Feb 16vsLoyola Chicago #166conf+4.063%
Fri Feb 19atDayton #74conf-7.427%
Wed Feb 24atDuquesne #156conf-1.346%
Sat Feb 27vsDavidson #132conf+2.558%
Wed Mar 03vsRichmond #136conf+2.959%
Sat Mar 06atLa Salle #218conf+0.351%

Projected margin is from Saint Joseph's's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.