Roster Math

Teams › CAA · Compare Monmouth with another team

Monmouth

Monmouth returns 60% of last season's minutes and rates #209 on offense and #225 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -9.6 to +5.3.

-2.3
Rating · #216 of 365
-1.2
Offense · #209
-1.1
Defense · #225
-9.6 to +5.3
80% range
0%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
14-18
Projected record · 8 to 20 wins
9-9
Projected in CAA · 5 to 13 wins

Why we have them here

Monmouth's preseason projection of -2.3 (No. 216 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -2.9, less than the -1.4 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 171 at the end of 2025-26) adds -0.1, about its neighbours' -0.3; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +0.4. It returns 60% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (64%). The projection leans most on Kavion McClain (+0.9), Ashton Walker (+0.6) and Jinup Dobuol (-0.1); the newcomer who matters most is Ashton Walker, a transfer from La Salle, at +0.6. Its 80% range, -9.6 to +5.3, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 60% · Transfer 34% · Freshman 5%

Kavion McClain+0.9
Ashton Walker+0.6
Jinup Dobuol-0.1
Torrey Brooks Jr.-0.1
Lucas Orchard-0.4
Zubayr Griffin-0.4
Quinn Peters-0.5
Jack Leahy-0.5
O'Marion Harvey-0.5
Corey Miller-0.6
Stefanos Spartalis-0.9
Lureon Walker-1.0
Anthony Martinez-1.0
Jakai Sanders-1.1
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
944Kavion McClainF5-103ReturningMonmouth26+1.5+0.9
1081Ashton WalkerG6-51TransferLa Salle25+1.1+0.6
1931Jinup DobuolF6-82ReturningMonmouth13-0.4-0.1
2016Torrey Brooks Jr.G6-10FreshmanHigh school11-0.5-0.1
3245Lucas OrchardG6-32ReturningMonmouth8-1.8-0.4
3671Zubayr GriffinG6-41ReturningMonmouth8-2.1-0.4
3939Quinn PetersF6-63ReturningMonmouth7-2.6-0.5
3985Corey MillerG6-23ReturningMonmouth14-1.9-0.6
4087Jack LeahyG6-53ReturningMonmouth7-2.9-0.5
4090O'Marion HarveyF6-71ReturningMonmouth8-2.6-0.5
4167Stefanos SpartalisF6-91ReturningMonmouth21-1.7-0.9
4388Lureon WalkerG6-52TransferNorth Carolina A&T20-2.0-1.0
4416Jakai SandersG6-32TransferLe Moyne24-1.8-1.1
4980Anthony MartinezG6-21ReturningMonmouth9-4.5-1.0

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02atSt. John's #21-20.95%
Sat Nov 07NRhode Island #148-2.243%
Thu Nov 12atQuinnipiac #200-5.533%
Tue Nov 17atWake Forest #76-13.813%
Fri Nov 20atPrinceton #164-6.929%
Mon Nov 23atNorth Carolina #54-16.39%
Sat Nov 28vsSaint Joseph's #129+2.558%
Wed Dec 02atCincinnati #42-17.58%
Sat Dec 05atLehigh #256-3.838%
Tue Dec 08vsLa Salle #218+5.668%
Sun Dec 13atRobert Morris #113-9.322%
Tue Dec 15vsSiena #208+5.367%
Sat Dec 19atPennsylvania #144-8.026%
Mon Dec 21vsCornell #109+1.655%
Thu Dec 31atStony Brook #283conf-0.249%
Thu Jan 07vsHampton #288conf+5.166%
Sat Jan 09vsCharleston #141conf+0.150%
Thu Jan 14atTowson #193conf-3.638%
Sat Jan 16vsDrexel #254conf+3.762%
Mon Jan 18atNortheastern #296conf+1.354%
Thu Jan 21vsUNC Wilmington #101conf-2.343%
Thu Jan 28atNorth Carolina A&T #285conf+0.552%
Sat Jan 30atElon #198conf-2.343%
Thu Feb 04vsCampbell #224conf+3.060%
Sat Feb 06atDrexel #254conf-1.645%
Thu Feb 11vsTowson #193conf+2.056%
Sat Feb 13vsHofstra #124conf-0.847%
Thu Feb 18atWilliam & Mary #168conf-4.735%
Sat Feb 20atHampton #288conf-0.748%
Thu Feb 25vsNortheastern #296conf+5.768%
Sat Feb 27vsStony Brook #283conf+5.066%
Tue Mar 02atHofstra #124conf-6.031%

Projected margin is from Monmouth's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.